How Much Credit Should DOGE Get?

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00:00Doge began with big goals for federal spending cuts.

00:03We could do at least two trillion.

00:05And big expectations from betting markets that have since flatlined.

00:09But now's the time to look at the data to answer a question.

00:12What did Doge accomplish exactly?

00:15The short answer is not much, but that could be changing.

00:18Let's look at this chart, which shows federal spending this year

00:22compared to the two previous ones.

00:24Overall, federal spending is up sharply since President Trump took office.

00:28Elon Musk left the Trump administration last May.

00:32And Doge has since been officially disbanded.

00:34Going by this chart, it looks like the whole effort was a bust.

00:37Something interesting has been happening to spending lately, though.

00:40No, it's not falling.

00:42But since October 1st, the beginning of the 2026 fiscal year,

00:46it's running only slightly higher than a year ago.

00:49Federal revenue is up thanks to Trump's tariffs and higher income tax receipts.

00:54So the deficit has been shrinking.

00:55If that were to hold up for the whole fiscal year,

00:58it would be a first for Trump, who presided over huge deficit increases during his first term.

01:03Should Musk and Doge get credit for this?

01:06I hesitate to grant it, given the shoddiness of much of their work

01:09and the dishonesty of Musk's representations of it.

01:12Doge's cutbacks to foreign aid and scientific research

01:16may also have long-run costs that outweigh the benefits.

01:19But we do belatedly seem to be seeing some impact on federal spending from Musk's efforts.

01:25Not two trillion dollars in impact, but a billion here, a billion there.

01:30Whether it was worth all the chaos is something I'll leave it to you to judge.