00:00With our eyes on Tennessee and Republican Matt Van Epps, he had the endorsement of Donald Trump and had the full weight and thrust of the Republican Party behind him.
00:11The Speaker of the House was there stumping, and the Republican Party put a lot of money into this race.
00:17Congratulations on Truth Social to Matt Van Epps and his big congressional win in the great state of Tennessee, President Trump, last evening.
00:25But if you talk to a Democrat, they see this a lot differently, because he won by single digits, and this was a district that Donald Trump won by 22 points.
00:34You wouldn't know it by listening to Mr. Van Epps, who addressed supporters after the race was called last night. Listen.
00:40Tonight, you've sent a message loud and clear. The people of Middle Tennessee stand with President Donald J. Trump.
00:47To President Donald J. Trump, thank you, sir. Tonight we showed running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win.
00:58President Trump was all in with us, and it made the difference. In Congress, I'll be all in with him.
01:05All right. So there you go. Plus one for Mike Johnson. But if you're a Democrat looking at the road to the midterms here, you're looking at this very differently.
01:17Because the fact of the matter is, Democrats cut the margin here. I already told you, do the math. Cut the margin by 15 percentage points, right?
01:25Trump won by 22. Van Epps won by nine. Is this a problem? Is it even a bellwether?
01:30Because you're going to hear a lot of national Democrats and Republicans talk about this today.
01:35How about our panel right now? Rick and Caitlin are back with us.
01:38Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis, Republican strategist, partner at Stonecourt Capital, alongside Democratic strategist Caitlin Lagacki, senior fellow at Third Way.
01:48How are you looking at this, Caitlin? Is it a moral victory for Democrats?
01:52I don't believe in moral victories.
01:54I do think that it's a very positive sign for the party that the district swung as much as it did.
02:02There are currently about 40 other Republicans that are sitting in House seats that they won by less than the eight point margin that we saw last night.
02:13So all of those seats should now be considered gettable.
02:17But I do think as well that, you know, the candidate in this race on the Democratic side did not benefit from nationalizing this race.
02:25And it really underscored the importance of Democrats nominating candidates who are aligned with the views and the beliefs of the districts they're running in and to really focusing on the local issues that matter rather than trying to turn everything into, you know, cable TV fodder or what's going to play best with the Twitter audience.
02:47Interesting. Rick, I'm curious if you're going as far down the road as some political strategists are.
02:55After last evening, I was struck by the quote from Matt Whitlock, Republican in Politico this morning, quote,
03:01if every House district in the country shifted left by the same amount, we would be looking at a blue wave far worse than 2018.
03:09Is he right?
03:11You know, I think he's close to being right. I think Caitlin nailed it.
03:14You'd rather win than anything. So kudos to the Republicans for pulling out a victory here with the margins they have in the House.
03:22It's really important to the only way to calculate this midterm is looking at what Trump vote doesn't show up consistently, both in the elections, you know, last, you know, November, this last November.
03:36And then in this election, I mean, it's solidly a minimum of 10 percent of the Republican Party doesn't show up unless Donald Trump's on the ballot and Donald Trump won't be on the ballot in 26.
03:47So I would actually even expand the margin. It's not just 8 percent, you know, where if the district was plus Republican 8, you've got a you got a horse race.
03:59I'd say it's 10 to 15 because there are now plenty of precedents to show that there is half the Republicans in these districts will only show up when Donald Trump's on the ballot.
04:12So, buddy in the House, you're on your own. And I would say that her advice, Caitlin's advice to the Democrats is exactly right.
04:20Don't get candidates who are just going to run against Donald Trump. His vote's not showing up anyway.
04:24Get candidates who can actually make a case in their district and then you've got something to work with.
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