Strategic Implications of Trump Saudi Crown Prince Relationship

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00:00I heard John reference the pageantry of the crown prince's arrival, which featured a military band,

00:06a flyover, military officers on horseback, flying Saudi and U.S. flags. Clearly a lot of

00:12pomp and circumstance and much more than what any other foreign leader has received

00:16when visiting President Trump at the White House. I'm going to start with a really basic question.

00:21Why is President Trump so intent on impressing Mohammed bin Salman?

00:24Well, thank you, Scarlett. It's good to be with you. I mean, it's good to remember that Trump's first

00:31overseas visit in his first administration was to Saudi Arabia, and it was also the case that his

00:37first visit in his second administration was to Saudi Arabia. In both cases, President Trump was

00:42received with enormous pomp and circumstance and pageantry. So part of that is maybe returning the

00:50favor, the same style that he was received in Saudi Arabia. It's no secret that I think the

00:56crown prince is one of Trump's favorite leaders around the world. They have a great relationship.

01:02Saudi Arabia itself certainly is a very important partner for the United States. That was recognized

01:07both by the two Trump administrations as well as the Biden administration. It's an important player

01:13in the global energy markets. It's now becoming a very important player, as you mentioned, in chips and

01:18AI. It's the leader of the Arab world, leader of the Muslim world. It's a big player in the Middle East.

01:24So a lot of reasons there.

01:26Okay. And of course, we know the president referenced an investment of a trillion dollars from Saudi Arabia

01:31during their remarks yesterday. The crown prince actually said, you keep increasing it. A little bit

01:37of joking, but I wonder, where should these hypothetical dollars go? And where do you think, Paul,

01:43they're most likely to go? Well, I mean, these are not, I mean, really new numbers. These are new

01:50numbers that have accumulated over time from the first Trump to Biden to the second Trump.

01:56Saudi Arabia has, first of all, a massive sovereign wealth fund called the PIF, the PIF. It's already

02:03invested in many parts of the United States. There's many other organs of investment from Saudi Arabia

02:09to the U.S. Saudi Arabia has also been asked to invest in the sort of chip and AI sector in the

02:15U.S. other than the investments it's making in Saudi Arabia. Yes, as you said in jest, Trump keeps

02:22pushing the numbers up. The crown prince said it's around 600 billion, but that they aim to get it up to

02:29a trillion. That's obviously something that President Trump wants to make public as a selling

02:34point in the United States. And of course, a big topic yesterday was the sale of those F-35 jets.

02:41Former Vice President Mike Pence actually diverges from President Trump. He has voiced concern to our

02:46Kreeti Gupta about the sale of these F-35s to Saudi Arabia without concrete guarantees that the

02:52technology embedded in this aircraft would be kept secure. Some national security officials in

02:57Washington are worried about that technology later being shared with Beijing, for instance. Are you worried?

03:04Well, I think, I mean, there are three strategic aspects to the visit. One is the F-35s.

03:10The announcement of the president was an important one and a kind of a marker. Keep in mind that these

03:15production and transfer chains take many years. So this is not something that's going to happen

03:21tomorrow. And I think that these concerns are not new and they can be dealt with in many ways.

03:28Saudi Arabia is a very close and reliable partner of the U.S. military and Central Command.

03:34I think what's more, you know, what's more interesting is that it, that is an airplane

03:40that previously has only been given to Israel in the Middle East. So it's something that the

03:45Israelis are very concerned about, regardless of whether technology goes elsewhere. The other

03:51two strategic issues that were mentioned in the summit, one is that Trump wants Saudi Arabia to

03:57normalize with Israel. That will require progress towards the Palestinian state. And the other is

04:02negotiations with Iran. Yeah, I'm glad you bring that up. Specifically, when it comes to Saudi Arabia

04:08signing on to the Abraham Accords, what is Riyadh looking for to happen first? You mentioned two things

04:14that it wants, but is there a red line for Riyadh before signing on to the Abraham Accords?

04:20Yeah, Riyadh has made it very clear that they require, among other things, a steady pathway

04:29for statehood for the Palestinians. They've been saying that for the last two years in every

04:35statement. They also want a defense treaty with the United States. A defense treaty has to pass the

04:42Senate. That would take a two-thirds majority and you won't get that majority unless there's

04:47normalization with Israel. The short version of it is that the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is

04:55not ready to talk about any major concessions to the Palestinians or any move towards statehood. So I

05:01think a normalization between Saudi and Israel for now, it's on the table, but it's not going to be moved on.

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