Security guarantees a 'sticking point' in Ukraine peace deal

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00:00Donald Trump has said that there's a fine-tuned plan on the table.

00:03What does he mean by this?

00:04Does he mean that European demands are now taken on board?

00:08I mean, is this a plan that now better reflects Ukrainian and European interests?

00:13Well, look, on paper, at least, it's supposed to better reflect.

00:16But everything here is relative because, let's be honest,

00:20the original plan, the 28-point plan hammered out secretly

00:24without Europe or Ukraine's input behind the scenes,

00:27was essentially a document that was terms of surrender by Ukraine to Russia.

00:32Maybe it didn't explicitly say it, but it was.

00:35It essentially rewarded Vladimir Putin's aggression in his full-fledged invasion.

00:40It paved the way for investment into Russia, getting all the financial stuff back.

00:44It didn't really give Ukraine the ability to defend itself

00:47against the prospect of a future Russian attack.

00:51It would have thwarted, amputated its military,

00:54would have forced Ukraine to hand back territory,

00:58even territory that Russia doesn't control right now.

01:00So if that is your sort of starting point for comparing plans,

01:04sure, the document that the negotiators, Ukraine and the Europeans, now have in hand,

01:09the 19-point plan, is nominally better than the 28-point plan,

01:13which everyone, just about everyone who looked at it said was a total joke.

01:17That said, Ukraine faces extremely tough challenges ahead.

01:22This plan is going to be extremely difficult to really make work on paper.

01:26And the sticking point here are the so-called security guarantees, right?

01:30I said that the most important thing from the standpoint of Europe and its continental security,

01:35and from Ukraine, obviously, from its standpoint,

01:37is if Russia, as past presidents suggest, is not implausible,

01:41were to attack Ukraine again after a peace deal somewhere down the road,

01:45if not tomorrow, or a month from now, a few years from now,

01:47can Ukraine defend itself?

01:48And would Europe be able to help Ukraine defend itself?

01:51The first plan basically said, sure,

01:53there would be some sort of coordinated military response

01:56to any prospective Russian attack.

01:59It was—it left it there.

02:00It was as clear as mud, very vague security guarantees.

02:03And I can tell you right now, from the standpoint of today,

02:06even if the security guarantees are sort of etched into that new revised plan,

02:10it's extremely unclear what they really mean,

02:13who would be able to provide them,

02:15and how, the resources.

02:18So a new week of diplomacy is about to begin,

02:21a new round of diplomatic shuttling, if you will.

02:23Yeah.

02:24But at the end of this tunnel,

02:25how realistic are hopes for real peace in Russia

02:28if Moscow is ultimately going to reject—

02:31Real peace in Ukraine.

02:32Real peace in Ukraine, excuse me.

02:34If, you know, the—if the plan ultimately does not reflect Moscow's interests.

02:39Not to sound cynical, but very little prospect.

02:42I was talking about a paper document versus what can realistically—might stick,

02:47might actually fly with Moscow and be accepted.

02:51The—don't take it from me.

02:52The Russian officials this week, the deputy foreign minister himself,

02:56basically saying,

02:57no peace plan that does not meet Russia's maximalist aims, essentially, will be acceptable.

03:06Any peace plan that is anything short of sort of a full victory for Russia is not going to be acceptable.

03:12It's amazing.

03:14It's—it's interesting how clear and explicit Russia has been about what would be an unacceptable plan

03:20and how explicit it has been that it is sticking to its maximalist aims,

03:25that, in its view, Ukraine cannot ever pose a threat again to Russia,

03:30Ukraine's army must be limited,

03:32Russia must get the territories that it is illegally occupied and annexed,

03:36and that disconnect between, well, but perhaps the right plan Russia will accept.

03:41Past precedents suggest that even if Russia signs on to a plan, a piece of paper put in its face,

03:47it is highly likely in some—at some point to be in breach of that plan,

03:51even as it claims it is doing anything but.

03:55We saw this with the Minsk agreements in 2014.

03:57We saw this with Georgia in 2008 when it had pledged to retreat its forces,

04:02withdraw its forces from Georgian breakaway regions.

04:04Never did.

04:04They're still there today, actually.

04:06And we saw it before Putin was in power with the 1994 Budapest memorandum,

04:10which was supposed to be giving up—Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons

04:14in exchange for Russia respecting its sovereignty down the road.

04:18Well, we know where that ended.

04:19As of today, there is zero, nothing to indicate that—that Russia will give up those maximalist aims.

04:26To the contrary, it is indicated clearly it is ready to fight to the finish.

04:30It is ready to continue the war until and unless it achieves what it sees as a full victory in its original objectives.

04:39Those have not budged one iota since the full-fledged invasion on February 24, 2022.

04:45All right.

04:45But diplomacy continues nonetheless.

04:48All right.

04:48Thank you very much indeed for now, Douglas Hubbard.

04:50That's our international affairs commentator.

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