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00:00In this video, we will try and understand the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
00:06See, the first thing that you have to understand is that the tension between Russia and Ukraine is primarily because of two reasons.
00:13One, Ukraine is a matter of strategic importance to Russia.
00:17Look at the size of Ukraine.
00:18It is a big country that is right in between the European Union and Russia.
00:22So, this is very straightforward and I will tell you more about it in a while.
00:26And the second reason is there is also a territorial conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
00:31As you may know, currently Russia is in control of Crimea and then there are two regions on eastern Ukraine which is called Donetsk and Luhansk.
00:39So, these together combine to form Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.
00:44So, Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union.
00:46After 1991, Ukraine became a separate country and declared itself an independent country on 24th August 1991.
00:53As you can see this map, Ukraine shares borders with both the European Union and Russia.
00:59But as a former Soviet Republic, it has a deep social and cultural ties with Russia and Russian language is widely spoken there, especially on the eastern side of Ukraine.
01:08Now, if you look at the eastern Ukrainian regions which are bordered with Russia, it has more Russian-speaking people.
01:16And that is very natural, right?
01:17If you go near the border areas of any country or state, you will see that people from both sides of the border exist.
01:24Here also, you will find both Ukrainian as well as Russian people.
01:27But then, as we know, Ukraine was part of Soviet Union.
01:30Naturally, after Ukrainian ethnicity, Russian ethnic group is the largest.
01:35And needless to say, there will be more Russian-speaking people on the eastern regions of Ukraine.
01:40Now, with that, one more thing that is very common at border areas is that there will be groups who are both political as well as armed, who will have their own regional interests.
01:49That means there are political as well as armed groups in eastern Ukraine who are pro-Russian.
01:54Naturally, when politics is involved, definitely Russia will have its own interests secured.
01:59Now, if you look at it from geopolitics point of view, one should not be surprised if Russian political fraternity in Moscow support these eastern Ukrainian Russian-speaking groups.
02:08It's totally normal in geopolitics.
02:10Similarly, even Ukraine can do it.
02:13But then compared to Russia, Ukraine is comparatively a new country.
02:16So, it's difficult for Ukraine to counter the Russian culture that has a long history.
02:20That is why Western liberal democracy is doing that job for Ukraine and giving the ideological support to Ukraine in opposing the Russian culture.
02:29There is an old saying, you cannot defeat a culture.
02:32A culture takes hundreds and thousands of years to evolve.
02:35It's practically not possible to change any culture overnight or in few years.
02:39So, it is the same thing for Ukraine.
02:41Ukraine comparatively is a young country in front of Russia.
02:44There are subtle differences between the Russian and Ukrainian culture if one pays close attention.
02:50Otherwise, at first sight, you will not be able to figure out who is Russian or Ukrainian unless you start speaking about politics or carefully listen to their pronunciation or you see them wearing their national clothes.
03:00Both the cultures are very close.
03:02Yet, there are subtle differences which are difficult to spot for an outsider.
03:06Plus, it takes hardly two hours to go by train from Kiev, capital of Ukraine, to Moscow.
03:11And 30 years ago, it was all one country.
03:14So, ethnically, Ukrainians and Russians are very mixed.
03:17There is hardly any difference in their cultures.
03:19For Ukrainian people, Ukraine is their own country.
03:22There are no two thoughts in it.
03:24Of course, any group or any section of the population that has pro-Russian sentiments inside Ukraine is not going to be acceptable to the Ukrainian political fraternity as well as Ukrainian majority.
03:34It is also seen as a threat against Ukraine's national sovereignty.
03:38In fact, no country would like that.
03:40So, if you look at things from Ukrainian political perspective and national interest, these Eastern Ukrainian Russian-speaking groups that support Russia are called as rebels and separatists.
03:50Now, to understand this whole conflict, we need to go back in time, at least 10 to 15 years behind.
03:56That is how we will get a perspective of this issue.
03:59I will give you a quick overview.
04:01If you look at the current president of Ukraine, he is Vladimir Zelensky.
04:05He became the president on 20th May 2019.
04:09Before him, from 2014 to 2019, the Ukrainian president was Petro Poroshenko.
04:14And if you go further behind from 2010 to 2014, the president of Ukraine was Viktor Yanukovych.
04:20It is important to mention all these three presidents whose collective tenure spans over a decade.
04:26In total, there were seven presidents in Ukraine till now since 1991.
04:31But to understand the Russian and Ukrainian conflict, we only need to know the events that took place during these three presidential terms.
04:38Now, let me quickly tell you about the political parties in Ukraine.
04:42After that, I will categorize these three presidents as per their political affiliation, so that you somewhat get a broad political picture of Ukraine.
04:49So, basically, the politics of Ukraine is divided into three categories.
04:54Actually, the major ones are two, but there are political groups who are in between.
04:58So, together, there are three categories in which all the political parties in Ukraine, irrespective of their ideology, can be easily categorized.
05:05The first category includes those political parties who are pro-Western.
05:09They also support NATO.
05:11They are pro-European.
05:12They believe in the liberal democracy of the Western countries.
05:15And they are also anti-Russian.
05:17The second category includes all political parties that are pro-Russia.
05:21They like the old Soviet culture.
05:23They are Eurosceptic, meaning they criticize European Union.
05:27And they are often anti-American.
05:28And they are also not very liberal.
05:31The third category includes political parties that only focus on regional and local interest.
05:35In political science, there is a term for it.
05:38It is called the ideology of regionalism.
05:40And almost all the political parties in this category are comparatively new.
05:44They were formed in the last five, six years or so.
05:47So, basically, you can think of them as new emerging political parties who are still figuring out the nerve of the Ukrainian public, trying to build their foundation.
05:55And once they garner enough supporters, it will be interesting to see which side will they choose.
06:01Because once you transition out of regional politics, you then have to face national politics.
06:06And national politics of any country has a direct correlation with international relations.
06:10At the international level, even if you don't like it, you will be forced to take sides.
06:15It's not at all possible to be neutral.
06:17You can try to be neutral on less important matters.
06:20But then when it comes to strategic interests, you will end up taking sides.
06:25So, these are the three categories or you can say political camps in which all the political parties in Ukraine fall into.
06:31Now, I will categorize these three presidents as per their political affiliation.
06:36The current president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, his political affiliation is with Servant of the People Party, which basically falls in the first category.
06:44Then, former president Petro Poroshenko, belonged to the European Solidarity Party.
06:50By the name European Solidarity, you can easily figure out that even this falls in the first category.
06:55And finally, if you look at the former president Viktor Yanukovych, in 80s, he was part of the Communist Party of Soviet Union.
07:02Once Ukraine got separated, he joined a political party called Party of Regions in late 1997,
07:08which later on became the biggest party of Ukraine between 2006 and 2014.
07:12This political party in 2014 merged with another political party by the name Opposition Platform for Life,
07:19which is basically a pro-Russian, anti-American and Euroceptic political party.
07:24Now, I will begin the story from Viktor Yanukovych's presidential term.
07:28So, he won the election on 25th February 2010.
07:32His election was generally considered as free and fair because he was quite popular at that time.
07:36And one of the reasons for his popularity can also be given to his predecessor's government.
07:41It was not competent and it was going through internal issues.
07:45That is how Viktor Yanukovych became Ukraine's favorite presidential candidate.
07:49As soon as he became the president in March 2010, in the very same year, he made couple of mistakes or blunders, you can say.
07:57The Ukrainian public saw it as a blunder.
07:59So, what happened was in April 2010, that is one month after winning the election,
08:04his government signed a landmark agreement with Russian government in the city of Kharkiv.
08:08At that time, Dmitry Medvedev was the Russian president and the prime minister was Vladimir Putin.
08:15As per this agreement, Russia agreed to reduce the price of natural gas sold to Ukraine by 30%.
08:20In return, Russia wanted the Ukrainian government to extend the lease of Russian naval base in the Black Sea at Sevastopol in Ukraine for 25 years.
08:29This was the deal.
08:31Now, let me tell you this point quickly.
08:32You know, after the end of Soviet Union in 1991, the newly independent Ukraine had many issues with Russia.
08:39One of them was how to divide the fleet of Russian Navy in the Black Sea among both the countries.
08:44So, both the countries had an arrangement in which Ukraine agreed to allow Russia to use the seaports of Black Sea and other facilities in Crimea.
08:52This agreement got extended for more 25 years in 2010 after the arrival of President Viktor Yanukovych.
08:59So, I hope you are getting what was happening.
09:00This agreement was heavily criticized by the Ukrainian public.
09:04Why?
09:04Because if you look at it from Ukraine's point of view, it was like letting Russia control Crimea in exchange of low-cost gas.
09:11Even America was paying attention to Yanukovych's policies.
09:14And the United States was not in favor of his policies.
09:18This is where things get interesting.
09:19You have to understand this.
09:21United States always had interest in Ukraine.
09:23When Ukraine got separated in 1991, United States quickly recognized Ukraine and extended full support.
09:29In 1994, it was United States who helped Ukraine and Russia come to an agreement on the elimination of Soviet nuclear weapon systems in Ukraine and ensured security and safety for Ukraine.
09:40If you remember the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986, it happened in Ukraine.
09:45America did help Ukraine in cleaning up the nuclear waste at Chernobyl after the meltdown.
09:50U.S. and many other countries had donated huge amount of money in controlling the situation.
09:55Even India had donated.
09:56Anyhow, after leaving Soviet Union in 1991, in the following years, Ukraine was added to non-proliferation treaty by United States.
10:04And in 1997, NATO and Ukraine partnership started developing.
10:09I am not saying Ukraine became part of NATO.
10:11I am saying the partnership was developing.
10:12In 2003, Ukraine had deployed thousands of troops in Iraq and supported the invasion of Iraq by United States.
10:20So, you see, United States always had interest in Ukraine.
10:23And likewise, Ukraine also extended its full support to United States.
10:27And on the other hand, Russia was always against United States and European Union's interference in Ukraine.
10:33Now, coming back to 2010, when President Viktor Yanukovych made a deal with the Russians and extended their lease of the naval base in Crimea,
10:42United States and the Ukrainian public were not at all in favor of it.
10:46After few months, that is in October 2010, Yanukovych amended the Ukrainian constitution and brought back certain provisions that existed before 2004.
10:56Basically, he changed Article 111 of the Ukrainian constitution, which is regarding President's removal.
11:02Now, this created a negative perception among the public.
11:06A large portion of the Ukrainian population started disliking him.
11:09Opposition political parties and public started thinking,
11:12this guy is trying to run Ukraine similar to Russian Federation.
11:16Because if you see, the same kind of steps have been taken by leaders in Soviet Russia.
11:20Then you also must be aware that Vladimir Putin had also made similar provisions
11:24and increased his presidential term limits.
11:27Even in Germany, when it was known as Prussia,
11:29this kind of steps were taken by Bismarck, who was the head of the state of Prussia.
11:34And it worked pretty fine for them.
11:36So, even Viktor Yanukovych was under the impression that
11:38even he could get away by allocating more powers to himself.
11:42So that he remains the president for as long as he wanted.
11:45Then in the following years, he was facing a lot of corruption charges.
11:49Many media reports claim that his immediate family members benefited a lot during his presidency.
11:54By the end of 2012, his approval ratings and popularity fell like anything.
12:00To save his image, he had to do few things.
12:03You can call it damage control.
12:05What he did was, in early months of 2013,
12:08he and his ministers were totally in favor of signing the European Union Association Agreement.
12:13And there was a significant support from the Ukrainian public.
12:15Yanukovych and his government fully promoted this deal.
12:19And it is obvious, right?
12:21If the public loves a policy, then any government will talk loud
12:24and promote the policy before making it happen.
12:27So that the politician can increase their approval ratings.
12:30That is exactly what Yanukovych and his government did.
12:33They spoke so much about the European Union Association Agreement
12:35and created a massive hype among the Ukrainian public.
12:39And even the public had full faith in Yanukovych.
12:42Because this European Union Association deal,
12:45it is an opportunity for not just Ukraine's economic reform,
12:48but the Ukrainian public saw this as a civilizational choice.
12:52They wanted to get away from the old Soviet Russian culture
12:54and move towards something more modern like the European culture.
12:58I am not saying everyone in Ukraine wanted that,
13:01but vast majority of the Ukrainian public has this notion.
13:04So anyhow, Yanukovych and his government created all the hype
13:07and the Ukrainian public was in full support.
13:09And on 21st November 2013,
13:13the government went back on its promise
13:15and suspended the signing of European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement.
13:20That means Yanukovych went back on his own promises
13:22and that created a civil unrest in Ukraine.
13:26Initially, it was a protest that turned into riots,
13:29then civil disobedience and later into a movement.
13:33And this was also called the Euromaidan movement.
13:35And the purpose of this movement was to remove President Viktor Yanukovych.
13:40There was a massive protest in the capital city of Kyiv.
13:43So you can imagine how much the public of Ukraine wanted to sign the deal
13:46and join the European Union.
13:48Protests and clashes went on even in January 2014.
13:52In the same month,
13:53the Ukrainian parliament passed a group of anti-protest laws.
13:56That made the public even more angry.
13:59Protesters occupied government buildings in many regions of Ukraine.
14:02The police even fired live and rubber ammunition at multiple locations in Kyiv.
14:07As a result of these events,
14:09the Agreement on Settlement of Political Crisis in Ukraine
14:12was signed on 21st February 2014 by Yanukovych
14:16under the mediation of European Union and the Russian Federation.
14:20Shortly after the agreement was signed,
14:22Yanukovych and other high government officials fled the country.
14:25Afterwards, the parliament removed Yanukovych from office
14:28and soon there was a fresh protest in Crimea
14:30and also in the regions of eastern Ukraine
14:33where majority public were Russian-speaking.
14:36If you look at the public opinion polls of the 2013 protest,
14:40it was found that about 45% to 50% of Ukrainians
14:43supported the Euromaden movement.
14:45The biggest support for the protest can be found in Kyiv
14:48and western Ukraine.
14:49Almost similar percentage of Ukrainian public
14:51even opposed the movement.
14:53There are many such studies that suggest
14:55that the Ukrainian public has a mixed opinion
14:57regarding the idea of joining the European Union.
15:00So anyhow, in March 2014,
15:03Yanukovych and some of his government officials fled to Russia.
15:06A temporary government in Ukraine was appointed.
15:09Petro Poroshenko was elected as the President in 2014.
15:13He is a Ukrainian billionaire businessman
15:14and was also the opposition leader during the crisis.
15:18In many of his interviews,
15:19he even said that he was one of the organizers of the 2013 protests.
15:23So naturally, he gained public sympathy
15:26and that's how he became the next favorite presidential candidate of Ukraine.
15:30Now, an interesting thing that happened in February and March 2014.
15:34What happened was when Viktor Yanukovych was signing the agreement
15:37on settlement of political crisis in Ukraine.
15:40And I even mentioned when the Euromaden movement reached at its peak,
15:44Yanukovych and some of his government officials fled the country.
15:47Afterwards, the parliament removed Yanukovych from office.
15:50When all of this was happening,
15:53there were fresh protests happening in Crimea
15:54and in regions of eastern Ukraine,
15:57where majority of the public are Russian-speaking.
16:00Some reports even suggest that because of the Euromaden movement,
16:03Ukraine's state security forces had to use full force to curb the protest.
16:08In doing so, the conflict got escalated
16:10and that led to fresh protests in Crimea and eastern regions of Ukraine.
16:13Anyhow, when all the political drama was happening in the city of Kyiv,
16:18Russia strategically invaded and took over the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine.
16:22And it was planned strategically.
16:24Russian troops who were masked took over the Supreme Council,
16:27that is the parliament of Crimea,
16:29and installed their own pro-Russian Sergei Aksion government in Crimea.
16:34Russia even conducted the Crimean referendum.
16:36And as I said,
16:37majority of the people in Crimea and eastern part of Ukraine are Russian-speaking.
16:41So, they voted in favor of Russian Federation
16:44and 16th March 2014 was declared as Crimea's independence.
16:48Naturally, if you look at it from Ukraine's point of view,
16:51they condemn it
16:52and even consider it to be a violation of international law.
16:55The United Nations also has similar view
16:57and it is in favor of Ukraine.
16:59But then the Russian government defends it
17:01and says that
17:02there was a proper referendum
17:04where the people of Crimea has voted in favor of Russia.
17:07It is called the principle of self-determination of peoples.
17:11Self-determination is also called the right of people.
17:14Anyhow, the point is that
17:15Russia took over Crimean peninsula in March 2014.
17:19So, 2014 is an important year in the history of Ukraine
17:22for three reasons.
17:23The Euromaiden movement came to an end,
17:25new president was elected
17:27and Ukraine lost Crimea.
17:29Now, in March 2014,
17:30when Russia took control of Crimea,
17:33Vladimir Putin was the president of Russia.
17:35So, what he did was,
17:37you can call it a political move or whatever,
17:39what he did was,
17:40he publicly spoke about
17:41protecting the rights of Russian citizens
17:43and Russian speakers in Crimea and Southeast Ukraine.
17:47Immediately after his statement,
17:49the Russian ethnic group
17:50in the eastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine felt connected.
17:54There was already a crisis going on in Ukraine
17:56and in the middle of that,
17:58these Russian people in Ukraine
17:59strongly connected to the Russian president's statement.
18:02They felt that somebody is talking about them.
18:04And that created an ethnic division
18:06in the eastern regions of Ukraine.
18:08And these regions are Donetsk and Luhansk.
18:12I want you to look at this map.
18:13The violence started here
18:15between the separatist forces in the region
18:17and the Ukrainian military.
18:18If you see,
18:20these regions are bordered by Russia.
18:22So, obviously,
18:23these separatist forces are being backed by Russia.
18:25Although Russia denies its involvement,
18:28but then we have to agree that
18:29without the support of a bigger nation,
18:31minority groups cannot form their own armed forces
18:34and go against their own country's military.
18:36By the way,
18:37Donetsk and Luhansk are also called the Donbas region.
18:40There are two airports here.
18:42One is in Donetsk
18:43and the other one is in Luhansk.
18:46And these are international airports.
18:47Of course,
18:48now they are officially closed
18:49because they are under the control of rebel forces.
18:52Moments back,
18:53I told you that
18:54without the support of big nation,
18:56minority groups cannot form their armed forces.
18:58Russia has been supplying military equipment
19:00and training to the rebel groups
19:02that exist in the Donbas region.
19:05Many media reports even say
19:06that Russia has also supplied heavy military equipment
19:09like surface-to-air missile system
19:11that were used by the rebel forces
19:13at these two airports.
19:15If you remember,
19:15in July 2014,
19:17Malaysian airline MH17
19:19was shot down over Ukraine's airspace.
19:21The airline was crashed and burned
19:23in the Donbas region.
19:25So, if you look up on the internet,
19:26everyone says that
19:27it was shot down by a Russian-built
19:29surface-to-air missile system
19:30which is a BUK M1 missile
19:32supplied by Russia to the rebel forces.
19:34In fact, before this incident,
19:37many Ukrainian air force aircraft
19:39have been shot down by the rebel forces
19:41from these airports.
19:43For instance,
19:44Elysian 76 transport aircraft
19:46of the 25th Transport Aviation Brigade
19:48of the Ukrainian Air Force
19:49was shot down by the rebel forces
19:51near Luhansk airport.
19:53There are many such incidents.
19:55So, unfortunately,
19:56the Malaysian airline incident
19:57of July 2014 in Ukraine
19:59escalated into an international crisis.
20:02On one side,
20:03you have the United States
20:04and European Union
20:05and on the other side,
20:06you have Russia
20:07and Ukraine became the battleground.
20:10Then, on 5th September 2014,
20:12France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine
20:14came up with a ceasefire agreement
20:15through the Minsk Agreement.
20:17So, basically,
20:18the aim of this agreement
20:19was to end the war
20:20in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
20:22Minsk is the capital of Belarus.
20:25On 5th September 2014,
20:27the head of all these four countries,
20:29France and Germany represented OSCE,
20:31they all signed the agreement.
20:33But then, the agreement failed
20:34and there were many ceasefire violations
20:36in Donbas.
20:37Again, a fresh agreement was set up.
20:39It was called Minsk 2,
20:41which was signed on 12th February 2015.
20:44Even this failed.
20:45You have to understand
20:46why this Minsk Agreement failed.
20:48If you look at it
20:49from Ukraine's perspective,
20:51they want couple of things.
20:53They want ceasefire,
20:54withdrawal of heavy weaponry
20:55and full Ukrainian government control
20:57throughout the conflict zone.
20:59If you see from Russia's perspective,
21:02Russia wants autonomy of Donbas.
21:04Russia wants this region
21:05to govern itself
21:06and control its own affairs.
21:08Because Russia is confident
21:09that here the people
21:10are Russian-speaking
21:11and they are pro-Russians.
21:12So, it will be easy for Russia
21:14to exercise military
21:15and political influence.
21:16On the other hand,
21:17Ukraine is aware of this.
21:19That is why it is against
21:20the autonomy of Donbas.
21:22You see, Donbas region
21:23is one of the prosperous
21:24industrialized regions of Ukraine
21:26before the conflict.
21:27Similarly, even the Crimean Peninsula
21:29is one of the prosperous
21:30industrialized regions of Ukraine.
21:33And the inputs from these regions
21:34towards Ukraine's industrial production
21:36was very high.
21:37And right now,
21:38Crimea is in full control of Russia.
21:40And Donbas region
21:41is in control of pro-Russian rebel forces.
21:44So, this is why
21:44the Minsk Agreement failed twice.
21:47And by the way,
21:48the whole Donbas region
21:49is 427 km long front line.
21:52You have to understand that
21:53such a long front line
21:54is dividing the once prosperous
21:56industrial region of Ukraine.
21:58That's why even Ukraine
21:59is not willing to settle.
22:01And on the other hand,
22:02Russia wants the strategic importance
22:04of this region.
22:05And Russia somewhere also knows that
22:07if Ukraine becomes a stable state,
22:09then it will immediately resume
22:10its interest in associating
22:12with European Union.
22:13That is why Russia is pushing
22:14for autonomy
22:15for the territories
22:16of the Donbas region.
22:18It's very simple.
22:19As long as there will be
22:20a conflict in Ukraine,
22:21there will be no successful
22:22association agreement
22:23with the European Union.
22:25So, basically,
22:25both the countries,
22:26Ukraine and Russia,
22:27know each other's moves.
22:29And they are adamant on it.
22:31Ukraine and Russia
22:32cannot agree on autonomy
22:33for the Donbas region.
22:34Because they fundamentally
22:35disagree on the provisions.
22:37So, after the failed
22:382015 Minsk Agreement,
22:40nothing much changed.
22:42Two sides exchanged prisoners.
22:44They sometimes agreed
22:45on the withdrawal
22:45of heavy weapons.
22:46and sometimes they even
22:48agreed on ceasefires.
22:49But for a short period
22:50and nothing more than that
22:51ever developed.
22:53Then in 2019,
22:54the current president,
22:55Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
22:56was elected as the new
22:57president of Ukraine.
22:59He agreed to implement
23:00the Stenmayer formula.
23:01So, what is Stenmayer's formula?
23:03It is basically a peace plan
23:05proposed by the former
23:06German president,
23:07Frank-Walter Stenmayer,
23:09as an alternative
23:09to the Minsk Agreement.
23:11As per this formula,
23:13Ukraine has to grant
23:14self-governing status
23:15to the territories of Donbas
23:17only after conducting
23:18local elections.
23:20Whatever may be the outcome
23:21after the election,
23:22it will be recognized
23:23by the OSCE group.
23:25But again,
23:25there was one problem.
23:27Ukraine had a demand.
23:28It first wanted
23:29a complete ceasefire
23:31and withdrawal
23:31of all Russian troops
23:32and weapons.
23:33Only then the elections
23:34would be held.
23:36Basically,
23:36Ukraine wanted to
23:37regain full control
23:38over its eastern border
23:39before the elections
23:40are held under Ukrainian law.
23:43Do you know what Russia said?
23:45Elections and autonomy first,
23:46then everything else.
23:48So, if you see,
23:49it was a big risk for Ukraine.
23:51By accepting Russia's terms,
23:53Ukraine would have
23:53taken a big risk
23:54of rebuilding
23:55and supporting the economy
23:56of an autonomous region
23:57whose vast political powers
23:59would have been
24:00under pro-Russian leadership.
24:01So, it is a huge risk
24:03for Ukraine.
24:04Hypothetically,
24:05anything could have happened.
24:06For example,
24:07who knows,
24:07after granting autonomy,
24:08maybe this region
24:10would have stirred
24:10an internal conflict
24:11or helped Russia
24:13maintain the influence
24:14of Ukraine's domestic affairs.
24:16So, even Stenmayer's
24:17formula did not work.
24:18I want you to understand
24:19the situation
24:20in which Ukraine
24:21is currently in.
24:22Ukraine currently
24:23is not in a position
24:24to have a full-fledged war
24:26against Russia
24:26and reclaim its territory.
24:28It definitely needs
24:29the help of NATO.
24:31Ukraine is also not able
24:32to conduct local elections
24:34because Russia
24:34has made it very clear.
24:36You first conduct elections
24:37and give autonomy.
24:39Only then,
24:39we go for a complete ceasefire
24:40and withdrawal
24:41of Russian troops and weapons.
24:43And Ukraine cannot accept
24:45these terms
24:45because if it does,
24:47then it is guaranteed
24:47that the Donbas region
24:49will be fully under
24:49Russia's control.
24:51And then,
24:51Ukraine will have to
24:52grant full amnesty
24:53to people
24:53who participated
24:55in anti-nationalist movements
24:57in Donetsk and Luhansk.
24:59On top of it,
25:00the Donbas region
25:00can also cause
25:01internal conflict
25:02in Ukraine's
25:03domestic affairs.
25:04And then,
25:05Ukraine also cannot
25:06give a special status
25:07to the Donbas region.
25:09The Ukrainian public
25:10will see it as
25:10giving a concession
25:11to Russia.
25:12Public will not like it.
25:14And who knows,
25:15this could lead to
25:16a similar type of protests
25:17and riots
25:17like the Euro Maiden
25:18movement in 2013
25:19which led to the removal
25:21of President
25:22Viktor Yanukovych.
25:23The current President
25:24of Ukraine
25:25has to think
25:25about all of this.
25:27Otherwise,
25:27he will easily end up
25:28like former President
25:29Viktor Yanukovych.
25:30And then,
25:31you also have to understand
25:32that no pro-European-Ukrainian party
25:34will have a chance
25:35of winning the election
25:36in the Donbas region.
25:38For the past 8 years,
25:39this region has been cut off
25:40from Ukrainian politics
25:42and media.
25:43It has been under
25:43the influence of Russia.
25:45It's going to be
25:45extremely difficult
25:46for Ukrainian politicians
25:47to counter the Russian narrative
25:49in this region
25:50if it were to conduct elections.
25:52If Ukraine wants
25:53to confront Russia directly,
25:55it definitely needs
25:56NATO's help.
25:57In April 2016,
25:59NATO announced
26:00that the alliance
26:01would deploy
26:01four battalions
26:02to Eastern Europe,
26:03moving troops
26:04through Estonia,
26:05Latvia, Lithuania
26:06and Poland
26:07in order to counter
26:08possible future
26:09Russian aggression
26:10in other parts of Europe.
26:12Then in October 2018,
26:14Ukraine joined
26:14the United States
26:15and seven other
26:16North Atlantic Treaty
26:17organization countries
26:18in a series of
26:19large-scale air exercises
26:20in Western Ukraine.
26:22If Ukraine needs
26:23so much of NATO's help
26:24and the United States
26:25is serious about
26:26giving security assistance
26:27to Ukraine,
26:28then why is it
26:29that till now
26:30Ukraine has not
26:31received NATO membership?
26:32Have you ever
26:33thought about it?
26:34Ukraine's public
26:35is in full support
26:36of NATO.
26:37In fact,
26:38the public is in full support
26:39of whatever the European Union
26:40and the United States
26:41have to throw at Ukraine.
26:43Then why is it
26:43that till now
26:44Ukraine has not
26:45received European Union's
26:46membership
26:47as well as NATO membership?
26:49Of course,
26:50Ukraine is part of
26:51DCFT agreement
26:52which is trade-related.
26:54I am talking about
26:55the actual
26:55European Union membership
26:56as well as NATO membership.
26:58And the answer
26:59to that question
27:00is not with Ukraine.
27:01You have to ask
27:02European Union
27:03and the United States.
27:04If they have so much
27:05concern about Ukraine,
27:07the first thing
27:07they should have done
27:08is give them membership
27:09and deploy all
27:11NATO's resources
27:12across the Ukrainian
27:13border against Russia.
27:15European Union
27:16and the United States
27:16will not do that.
27:18Now, I want you
27:18to pay attention to this.
27:20Because if you give Ukraine
27:21the European Union membership,
27:23then there will be
27:24a large-scale migration
27:25from Ukraine
27:26to other parts of Europe.
27:27People are innocent.
27:29They will migrate
27:29for a better life,
27:31better economic opportunities.
27:33European Union
27:33doesn't want that.
27:35Now, coming to
27:35NATO membership,
27:36there is very little support
27:37within NATO
27:38for granting
27:39Ukraine membership.
27:40Why?
27:41Because the United States
27:42and European Union
27:43knows that
27:43Russia is already
27:45inside Ukraine.
27:46The moment they grant
27:47NATO membership,
27:48they have no other option
27:49but to interfere
27:50and deploy their troops
27:51as a NATO ally
27:52and rage a full-scale war
27:54against Russia.
27:55Just now,
27:56America got out
27:57of Afghanistan.
27:58Do you think
27:58the United States
27:59will take the risk
28:00of sending its own troops
28:01to Ukraine
28:01and fight the Russians?
28:03And even if United States
28:04decides to do that,
28:06what reason will they give?
28:07Oh, it's time
28:08to protect Ukraine,
28:09their citizens'
28:10freedom of right
28:11from Russian cruelty.
28:12If they give this
28:13as the reason,
28:14then what were you doing
28:15for the past eight years?
28:17So, Russia is openly saying,
28:19conduct elections
28:19and give autonomy
28:20to the Donbas region.
28:22Russians are talking
28:23about the elections,
28:24which is a symbol
28:25of democracy.
28:26How can the United States
28:27take all of the NATO forces
28:29and attack Russia?
28:30So, even United States
28:32and NATO countries
28:32are aware of this situation.
28:34That is why
28:35they are not in a hurry
28:36to give Ukraine
28:36NATO membership.
28:38Ukraine and Russia
28:39cannot agree on autonomy
28:40for the Donbas region
28:41because they fundamentally
28:42disagree on the provisions.
28:44So, the only way
28:45is that someone
28:45has to bend.
28:46Now, the question is
28:47who will do it?
28:49If Ukraine bends,
28:50then it understands
28:51the risk of another
28:52civil unrest
28:52just like the
28:53Euromaiden movement.
28:55So, it will not accept
28:56any concessions to Russia.
28:58Russia will also not
28:59move back
29:00because it will do
29:01everything to secure
29:01its interests.
29:03After all,
29:03it's the West
29:04against Russia alone
29:05that will create
29:06a powerful narrative
29:07for Russia.
29:08And it is happening.
29:09Many countries
29:10are supporting Russia.
29:11And Russia also
29:12very well knows
29:13as long as Ukraine
29:14has United States
29:15and European Union's support,
29:17Russia will not let go
29:18its leverage over Ukraine.
29:20So, right now,
29:21the West is collectively
29:21thinking how to
29:22neutralize Russia's
29:23leverage over Ukraine
29:25as well as Europe
29:26because Russia also
29:27supplies energy
29:28in the form of
29:29natural gas to Europe.
29:30That is why
29:31you must have heard
29:31that the United States
29:32has threatened Russia
29:33to stall
29:34Nord Stream 2
29:36the multi-billion dollar
29:37natural gas pipeline project
29:38between Russia and Europe
29:40if Russia invades Ukraine.
29:42So, this is the kind
29:43of leverage I'm talking about.
29:45The West is collectively
29:46thinking about
29:47how to neutralize
29:48Russia's leverage
29:49over Ukraine
29:49as well as Europe.
29:51Europe remains one of
29:52Russia's largest
29:53natural gas markets.
29:55And you very much know
29:56that if the United States
29:57is good at one thing,
29:58that would be
29:59putting sanctions.
30:00And that is why
30:01the United States
30:01is threatening Russia
30:02that it will put sanctions
30:04on the Nord Stream 2
30:05pipeline.
30:06However,
30:07before placing sanctions
30:08on the export of natural gas
30:09from Russia to Europe,
30:11the European Union countries
30:12will also need to look
30:13for alternate exporters.
30:15And even if America
30:16still decides to put
30:17sanction on Nord Stream 2
30:18pipeline,
30:19then it will also
30:20negatively impact
30:21five major European
30:22energy companies
30:23that have a major stake
30:24in the pipeline,
30:25including NG,
30:26OMV,
30:27Shell,
30:28Uniper,
30:28and Wintershall D.
30:30And by the way,
30:31you also must be aware
30:32that Russia supplies
30:33natural gas to Ukraine
30:34as well.
30:35In fact,
30:35the majority of the gas
30:36that is supplied
30:37to the European market
30:38is supplied through pipelines
30:40that travel across
30:41Ukrainian soil.
30:43And look at the twist.
30:44A few days back,
30:45Ukraine had accused
30:46the United States
30:47of hurting its economy
30:48by raising tensions
30:49with Russia.
30:51The way United States
30:52President Joe Biden
30:53was talking about Russia,
30:54warning Russia,
30:55giving threats,
30:56it seems in Ukraine
30:57it was creating panic
30:58in the Ukrainian financial market.
31:00Because it is straightforward.
31:02If the Russia-Ukraine
31:03crisis escalates,
31:05then gas prices
31:06in Europe will increase.
31:07And all those industries
31:08in Europe
31:09which are dependent
31:10on Russian gas,
31:11the cost of expenditure
31:12will increase.
31:13And that is going to soon
31:14affect the European
31:15financial market.
31:16All foreign investors
31:18will withdraw
31:18from European market.
31:20The European economy
31:21is going to be badly hit.
31:23Why do you think
31:23Germany, Croatia,
31:24France are staying
31:25out of this crisis?
31:27They are not keen
31:27in escalating this issue
31:29as much as the United States
31:30is doing.
31:31The US and some EU nations
31:33have sent military support
31:34to Ukraine.
31:35Germany has offered
31:36only medical aid.
31:38And if you remember,
31:38Germany's Navy chief resigned
31:40because he praised
31:41the Russian president
31:42and said,
31:43Vladimir Putin deserves respect.
31:45Why did he say that?
31:46Why is Germany
31:47not participating
31:48actively against Russia?
31:50Because Germany
31:51is aware of how
31:52this crisis is going
31:53to affect the European
31:54financial market.
31:55They don't want
31:56to pick up a fight
31:56with Russia.
31:57And even Germany's
31:58economy in the form
31:59of energy sector
32:00is linked with
32:01the Russian gas pipeline.
32:02Which is why
32:03Germany is adopting
32:04a softer approach.
32:06And by the way,
32:06Germany's Navy chief
32:07resigned because
32:08he made a controversial
32:09remark on the crisis
32:10in Ukraine.
32:11He said,
32:12if Russia wanted
32:13to invade Ukraine,
32:14it would have done
32:15it long back.
32:16And then he also added
32:17that Vladimir Putin
32:18deserves respect.
32:19For this comment,
32:20he lost his job.
32:22But anyhow,
32:23there is some truth
32:23in his statement.
32:24If Russia wanted
32:25to invade the eastern
32:26region of Ukraine,
32:27it would have done
32:28it long back.
32:29For eight years,
32:30Russia held on
32:31to this region.
32:31Why?
32:32Simply because
32:33Russia does not want
32:34the United States
32:35and European Union's
32:36involvement in Ukraine.
32:37That is why
32:38you will see that
32:39only the United States
32:40is talking too much.
32:41No other country
32:42is talking as much
32:43as the United States.
32:44If United States
32:45decides to put
32:46sanctions on Russia,
32:47that is really
32:48going to test
32:49the ability
32:49of the Western powers
32:50to use sanctions
32:51against Russian power.
32:53The United States
32:54is just creating
32:54a narrative
32:55by creating a hype
32:56that Russia
32:57will invade Ukraine.
32:59You know,
32:59they want to look
33:00good in front of the world.
33:01They want to say that
33:02we will save you
33:03from Russia
33:03in the name
33:04of human rights,
33:05democracy,
33:06women rights.
33:07Can you imagine that?
33:08The US used
33:09women's rights
33:10to help justify
33:10the invasion of Afghanistan.
33:12Can you imagine that?
33:13How bizarre is that?
33:14United States
33:15has gone completely
33:16woke in recent years.
33:18If Russia had
33:18to invade Ukraine,
33:20it would have
33:20done it long back.
33:21A good example
33:22is the Crimean Peninsula.
33:24If the United States
33:25decides to put
33:25sanctions on Russia
33:26because of a hyped issue,
33:28since they have
33:28nothing else to do,
33:29then Europe has to
33:30face the consequences
33:31of those sanctions.
33:32There will be
33:33a huge economic crisis
33:34in Europe
33:34and not just Europe,
33:36it will spill over
33:37everywhere in the world.
33:38If you analyze
33:39the situation very closely,
33:40you will realize that
33:41only the United States
33:42is more interested
33:43in this conflict.
33:44None of its allies
33:45are showing that much
33:46of interest.
33:47First of all,
33:47they don't have the appetite
33:48to do anything stupid
33:49because it's going to be
33:51bad for the economy.
33:52And mind you,
33:53even Chinese are watching closely.
33:55That is why
33:55the Ukrainian president
33:56has also told
33:57United States president
33:58to calm down
33:59and don't create a hype.
34:00Your hype is creating panic.
34:01So what does that
34:02tell us?
34:03It is very simple.
34:04The Russia and Ukraine
34:05crisis is simply
34:06a border dispute
34:07where Russia does not
34:09want the United States
34:10or European Union's
34:11influence on Ukraine
34:12as simple as that.
34:14That is why
34:14even India has taken
34:15the side of Russia
34:16at the UNSC discussion.
34:18It's all about
34:19saying no to the
34:19United States'
34:20old dirty tactics.
34:21So this was everything
34:23that you had to know
34:24about the Russia-Ukraine
34:25crisis.
34:26I hope you found
34:26this video informative.
34:28Thank you for watching it.
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