00:00Australia's role in the COP31 climate summit, Averill.
00:05Yeah, and this is positioning, of course, for COP31, given how it has a sort of failed bid.
00:13Now it will be hosting this along with Turkey.
00:17Australia has stepped back from this bid to host the COP31 climate summit in Adelaide,
00:22and instead this compromise with rival bidder Turkey.
00:25And this will see this 2026 talk stage in Antalya.
00:30Australia, of course, won't be the venue, and this will still shape the agenda, though.
00:35That seems to be the expectation, with Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen presiding over two weeks of negotiations.
00:43And we know how Pacific nations are also set to host a pre-COP event.
00:48Australia is seeking to establish itself as a clean energy superpower and signal
00:54that is addressing a key security threat to its Pacific partners.
00:58Let's discuss with Eliza Northrup, Director at University of New South Wales,
01:04Sydney Centre for Sustainable Development Reform.
01:08Eliza, good to see you.
01:10Talk to us first about the priorities for Australia in bidding to host COP31.
01:17And now not going along with that bid, even though it's going to be co-hosting it in a way with Turkey.
01:23Does that shift the conversations and the way in which it can kind of corral the 200 or so countries that it'll need to do?
01:33Yeah, so this has been a really long-standing, very drawn-out bid process over a number of years now,
01:42with Australia being very vocal that this was intended to be a joint COP with the Pacific.
01:50This was going to be a regionally focused COP, really offering an opportunity for Australia and the Pacific to come together and advance climate ambition.
02:00I think with Australia really hoping that this process can be used to strengthen political ties and relationships with the Pacific and catch up, really,
02:11I think, on the last 10-plus years where Australia hasn't always advanced the most ambitious climate policy.
02:18So a tremendously important opportunity for Australia and the Pacific.
02:22And that was very much how COP31 was framed.
02:26And I think even Minister Bowen has spoken about that recently, that desire to really use COP31 as a platform to elevate Pacific priorities and, you know, Pacific voice.
02:38You talk about the political partnerships.
02:42It's not known for being close to Turkey.
02:45How might this affect, you know, the way these negotiations will be had?
02:51How will that partnership actually work?
02:54So I think we are entering sort of really uncharted, unprecedented territory over the next year.
03:01The phrase, you know, two's company, three's a crowd comes to mind heading into the bid.
03:08It was very much that partnership, as I said, you know, Australia and the Pacific working out how to navigate a joint presidency
03:15and elevate priorities for both, you know, both perspectives.
03:20Now we have, you know, a third country in the mix, a split presidency.
03:27So it's very clear now that Turkey will continue to not only host, but they are the COP31 president to manage the entire event, including the action agenda.
03:41And it has sort of delegated responsibility, the presidency role over a subset of COP31, which is the negotiations to Australia.
03:51So, you know, it's gone from a situation where we had a joint presidency potentially between the Pacific and Australia to now really that joint presidency and that relationship needing to be managed between Turkey and Australia,
04:05with the Pacific now being offered the Pacific, which is a very different arrangement than what has been promised and really worked towards over the last couple of years.
04:18And, you know, as we've seen, the Pacific have been really, really strong advocates in supporting Australia's bid.
04:25So I think they are very much left in an uncertain position.
04:29I think the pre-COP is a very important moment in the lead up to the COP.
04:33But I think it's very much now up to Australia as to how can it find ways to make sure that the Pacific still remains part of that core COP30 or has a presence on that core COP30, 31 stage and can advance its priorities,
04:52particularly around some of these key elements of ambition and particularly mitigation, ambition and phasing out of fossil fuels.
05:00Yeah, I mean, how important will it be for Australia?
05:04How much is at stake now to make an impact in those conversations pre-COP, given, of course, the big blow that this was, that they didn't get to host it, but they're sharing presidency?
05:16It's a pretty messy arrangement.
05:20It is a very messy arrangement, as I said, sort of really unprecedented.
05:25Obviously, there's been lots of arrangements over previous COPs where, you know, host countries have hosted, you know, the physical COP for countries that may not have been able to do so.
05:35But there was always a very clear presidency role held by one country to really span the entire process, both the negotiations as well as the action agenda,
05:46to, again, reflect more of a cohesive package of outcomes for the COP as a whole.
05:54We won't have that for COP31.
05:56So I think Australia will need to be creative in how it navigates that and really come back to some of those first principles of why it embarked upon a joint bid with the Pacific in the first place
06:08and make sure that we don't lose sight of that in these new arrangements and really looking beyond the pre-COP.
06:16I think the pre-COP will be a really important moment for the Pacific.
06:21But I think Australia and Turkey really needs to find ways to amplify Pacific priorities at COP31 itself.
06:31I mean, Australia has long argued for a sort of joint Australian-Pacific COP, right?
06:37Are there any frameworks in the region that have been Pacific-led that could sort of help with the thematic priorities of COP31?
06:47So I think there's lots of opportunities.
06:49I mean, there has been a lot of talk around, you know, had that have been held by Australia in the Pacific in the region, in Adelaide, as you were suggesting earlier.
06:57You know, the Pacific, Australia, we are all large ocean states.
07:03So I think there was a lot of opportunity, particularly after the COP was held in the Amazon to perhaps shift global attention around what can be done in terms of that ocean climate nexus,
07:16particularly financing for solutions in this space, both mitigation and adaptation.
07:20I think that was a big call from many aspects of the climate policy space for that to be a bit of an opportunity for COP31.
07:29So, again, how can we still bring that flavour to the pre-COP?
07:33But how can we really move some big initiatives?
07:38You know, Brazil had a really a number of notable initiatives, particularly around finance, that it advanced.
07:43Heather, just wondering as well, sorry, if I can just step in here.
07:48The subtext to all this is that Australia and Turkey will have to be doing this without the typical leadership that you're seeing on this from the US.
07:58What are your expectations of what can actually be achieved amid all this?
08:03I mean, the US was also sort of not, you know, has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement ahead of Brazil.
08:12So I think we also saw the, you know, lack of really active participation as a party to the Paris Agreement in Belem as well.
08:21So I think that will continue.
08:23And I think that only speaks again to the need for more regional multipolar type approaches to climate action.
08:31How can we bridge new coalitions, new alliances, and really coalesce around some of these key messages around protecting the most vulnerable, responding to the science, responding to the urgency.
08:50I think that will be really critical for COP31 picking up on some of those issues that came out of COP30.
08:56Alexa Northrup, good to have you with us, Director at UNSW Centre for Sustainable Development Reform.
09:05We have more on Australia Ahead every Tuesday at 11.40 a.m. if you're watching in Sydney, 8.40 a.m. in Hong Kong.
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