Trump Promises $2000 'Tariff Dividend' Payout By Mid-2026, But Prediction Markets Remain Skeptical

Benzinga

Tariff dividend markets show bettors see only a 3% chance that Trump delivers $2,000 checks this year, with odds collapsing on Polymarket and Kalshi. Treasury officials say the plan needs legislation, and experts warn tariff revenue may not be enough to fund the proposal.

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00:00It's Benzinga bringing Wall Street to Main Street

00:02Tariff dividend prediction markets show little confidence that Trump will deliver $2,000 checks

00:07this year, according to Benzinga. Odds on poly market fell from 14% to 3% after more than $1

00:13million in wagers. And CalShare bettors also saw only a 3% chance that a tariff rebate bill

00:19becomes law this year. Trump said his administration will begin issuing checks by mid-2026 or later,

00:25though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessence said the plan needs legislation and dividends may not

00:30arrive as paper checks. The Treasury Department reported nearly $195 billion in tariff revenue

00:37through the first three quarters of the year, but experts said revenue may not cover the proposal.

00:42For all things money, visit Benzinga.com.

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