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00:00Have you ever wondered what truly separates winning teams from the rest in today's NBA?
00:05When you watch the Phoenix Suns, it quickly becomes clear how committed they are to their
00:09head coach, Jordan Ott, and the specific style of basketball he wants them to play.
00:15Their team has fully adopted a clear strategy, focusing on the latest trend that every smart
00:20NBA team is trying to master. This current strategic trend, the NBA's version of Moneyball,
00:25isn't just about the three-point shot anymore, the three-point revolution is already complete,
00:31to show how much things have changed. 20 years ago, teams attempted 16.03s per game,
00:37a decade ago, that number jumped to 24.1, today, it's 36.4, making the three-pointer a standard part
00:45of everyone's game. The goal remains the same, put the ball in the hoop, the new focus, however,
00:51is on giving yourself as many opportunities as possible to score. You might hear this called
00:57the margins, or the possession battle. The data overwhelmingly shows that getting just a few
01:03extra shot attempts can be the difference between winning and losing. When you see a coach use a
01:07challenge on a simple out-of-bounds call that doesn't directly involve points, that's the
01:12possession battle in action. He is fighting for one extra possession. Suns coach Jordan Ott talked
01:19about this constantly before the season, so you can imagine how much he emphasized it in private.
01:24He noticed the league start to view this as critically important, just last year.
01:29I think the analytics boom was about shot quality and efficiency, Ott said Saturday. But they left out,
01:35that you can't be in the negative in the possession game, every night. You're basically starting the game
01:40in a hole. The increased focus on offensive rebounding and defensive pressure is connected to
01:46people talking more about the possession game. You win this battle, in a few key areas, the two most
01:52important being offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Last year's Suns are the perfect example
01:57of how much this can hurt a team. In the 2023-24 season, the Suns ranked 26th in offensive rebounding
02:03percentage and 28th in forcing turnovers. To make this easier to understand, think about how many games
02:09the Suns lost, even though they shot a better percentage than their opponent. To go further,
02:13in their 10 best shooting games last year, all shooting 53% or better, they had a frustrating
02:18record of 4-6. In three of those six losses, their opponent took 10, 11, and 15 more shots than they
02:25did. Just being on the other side of it, you guard a good possession, and then give up an offensive
02:30rebound. Suns guard Devin Booker said Thursday, it usually ends up in a wide-open three or a put-back
02:36layup. Those problems from last year are now gone. This year, the Suns are in the top 10 in both
02:42categories, sitting 6th in offensive rebounding percentage and 10th in forcing turnovers,
02:47according to Cleaning the Glass. It's easy to say in the pregame, it's easy to say in practice,
02:52but it definitely takes a little bit more to focus on it, and we have all our guys doing it,
02:57Booker said. The Suns aren't alone, entering play on Saturday. Three other teams are also top 10 in
03:03these two stats. The Cleveland Cavaliers, 8-5, the Detroit Pistons, 11-2, and the Portland Trail Blazers,
03:126-6. Looking across the league, the best teams are usually elite in one of these areas.
03:18The Oklahoma City Thunder, 12-1, have the best turnover rate on both offense and defense, and,
03:26are second-best at defensive rebounding, preventing offensive rebounds. The Houston Rockets,
03:318-3, are the league's best offensive rebounders, with a staggering rate of 44%, far above the league
03:39average of 29.5%. The Denver Nuggets, 9-2, are top 10 in taking care of the ball on offense and in
03:45their defensive rebounding percentage. With the exception of the Trail Blazers, the other top
03:50teams have tremendous talent to help them win these margins. Teams like Portland, and especially Phoenix,
03:56don't have that same luxury. They have to fight for every single advantage they can find. The
04:02importance of the three-point shot isn't going away. And the Suns excel at this controllable margin as
04:07well. Coach Ott has his players taking a high volume of threes. They have the fifth-best three-point
04:12rate in the NBA. In turn, they are also sixth in three-point percentage at 39.2%, excluding garbage time.
04:20This is the blueprint every NBA team wants to follow, win the possession battle, and then make
04:25each possession as efficient as possible by taking the best shot available, which is often a three-pointer,
04:30but the game is more complex than that. The Suns, in fact, wish it were that simple. To dig a little
04:36deeper, the points-per-possession metric highlights two other areas where the Suns must improve, and they
04:42involve the two most efficient shots in basketball, free throws, and shots at the rim. Phoenix is 27th in
04:50getting to the free-throw line, free-throw rate, and 24th in sending opponents to the line, opposing free-throw
04:58rate. This is a troubling combination that can undo all their hard work in other categories. Yeah, that's not a
05:05good margin. That's not the good one, Ott said Thursday. We're not going to be a low-foul team. We're going to
05:10defend to the legal limit, and we know that comes at a cost. But we're going to continue to try to find
05:16ways to get into the paint. For us to get to the free-throw line, some of the improvement comes from
05:20cutting down on simple mistakes, like fouling jump shooters. The other major issue is shots at the rim.
05:27Due to their roster construction, this will likely be a struggle all year. The Suns are 29th in rim rate
05:33at 23.3%, nearly 10% below the league average of 31.6%. Jalen Green's absence for most of the season
05:41has hurt them here, as other ball handlers on the team don't have a history of attacking the basket
05:46frequently. However, there are elements the Suns can control. Ott likes that they frequently drive the
05:51ball, to at least put pressure on the defense. Phoenix's pace has also been just average, and Ott wants
05:57more than that. Data shows that the later you shoot in the shot clock, the lower the chance of the
06:01ball going in. By pushing the pace and attacking before the defense is set, you create better
06:06scoring opportunities. Now all this analytical talk might sound like mumbo-jumbo to you, and
06:12honestly, that's a fair point. Some things in basketball will never change.
06:18Getting a stop will always be vital. The Suns are 7th in half-court defense, which might be the most
06:26important stat in this article. Putting the ball in the basket will always be the goal.
06:31If Devin Booker has his mid-range shot working, forget the pull-up three. Let him use his best
06:36moves. But this focus on margins and possessions is a major part of what modern basketball has become,
06:42and NBA teams must adapt to stay ahead. Coach Jordan Ott and the Suns certainly are.
06:48So, do you believe mastering these margins is the new key to winning an NBA championship?
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