00:00Well, right now the tariffs are very high on India because of the Russian oil and they've stopped doing the Russian oil.
00:06It's been reduced very substantially. Yeah, we're going to be bringing the tariffs down.
00:10Trump's tariffs, a U.S. trade deal that hangs fire, China hostility and middling growth.
00:172025 seems like a year in which India's political and economic fortunes were clouded.
00:23But economist Neelkant Mishra disagrees.
00:26The real story is in the business cycle in India on how the reversal of monetary tightening and the end of the hard fiscal tightening phase is actually driving a cyclical recovery in the Indian economy.
00:40Mishra forecasts over 7% GDP growth, no interest rate cuts for a while, the 10-year government bond yield at below 6% next year,
00:49the rupee at 90 to the dollar and the possible return of a rah-rah bull market by the end of 2026.
00:57The conviction in India's trend growth will be much stronger at that time.
01:02I think by then this fertile ground created by low cost of debt capital, low cost of equity capital, easing of regulations would have triggered much more visible evidence.
01:12India's place in the world depends as much on effective diplomacy as a strong economy.
01:18As one of my colleagues put it, after all, 8% growth is the best foreign policy.
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