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00:00Bihar is one election where the opposition thinks it has a chance and of course therefore it is going to be washed keenly. Does this upset the momentum for the BJP and does it then ogre for the elections coming next year or does the BJP sort of continue with its juggernaut-like progress?
00:56In its power in the 243-member legislature.
01:00For more on this, Bloomberg's Manika Doshi joins us now from Mumbai.
01:03And Manika, put this in perspective for us, right?
01:05Why should the world be paying attention to this election?
01:11Well, morning, Hass.
01:12Bihar is India's most populous state.
01:15It's in the northeast part of India and it has over 100 million people, almost the size of, say, Vietnam.
01:23It is unfortunately also India's most poorest state by per capita GDP and amongst the most illiterate states in India.
01:31So if India wants to become a developed nation and if that's the core goal over the next few decades, then raising incomes nationally, most importantly in states like Bihar, becomes critical to that task.
01:44Now, politically, Bihar sends 40 members of parliament to parliament.
01:49That's to the central government.
01:50So that's an important number and a significant influence the state has.
01:55A majority of those in last year's general election were won by BJP and its alliance partner.
02:03And that combination is in power at the state level as well, as you mentioned.
02:07So they want to maintain that strength and they want to maintain it enough to offer over a billion dollars in freebies ahead of this election to women and young voters.
02:19This is a three-cornered contest or maybe I should say a two and a half-cornered contest.
02:25So like you pointed out, you've got the BJP and its alliance partner, which is a very strong regional party called the JDU, the leader of which has been the chief minister of Bihar for almost two decades or more.
02:39And then on the other side, you've got another strong regional party called the RJD, supported by the Congress in alliance.
02:46And then there is a third new player, Prashant Kishore, who used to be a political strategist, who's now thrown his hat into the political ring.
02:56And his party is expected to take away votes from both sides and potentially play kingmaker.
03:03Manaka, great stuff. Stick around, please.
03:06Joining us now are Michael Kugelman, non-resident senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation.
03:11He's an expert specializing in South Asia and its relations with the U.S.
03:15We also have Amitabh Tiwari, founder, partner of Ascendia Strategies and Vote Vibe.
03:21Amitabh is a political strategist and policy advisor.
03:24Amitabh, let's start with you.
03:26We know Manaka has laid out the foundation saying that, you know, it is a significant election for Pramish Modi.
03:32I mean, how much is at stake when it comes to maintaining power at the federal level?
03:37No, essentially, if the BJP is able to win Bihar because of a series of victories in Maharashtra, Delhi and Haryana,
03:49it can press home the narrative that the setback in 2024 general elections were largely an aberration.
03:56So, it could help NDA and the BJP to erase some of those losses from people's memory if they do better.
04:04If they do not, then it could put the pressure back on Prime Minister Modi and give a momentum to the opposition led by leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi,
04:15who, according to many surveys, is closing the gap with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the popularity ratings.
04:22In fact, the popularity ratings or the gap between Modi and Rahul is now falling to just 9 percent as per a sea voter survey.
04:34Amitabh, hi, this is Manaka here in the Mumbai studio.
04:38That gap may be narrowing between Modi and Gandhi, but when it comes to the state level,
04:43do you see the Congress alliance, and the Congress is the junior partner in the alliance, making significant headway?
04:50You know, what do you think are the critical factors at play?
04:52Because when I read your surveys, I don't see Rahul Gandhi's voter list manipulation issues dominate amongst Bihar's voting issues.
05:04Yeah, essentially, the bread and butter issues dominate, which is unemployment, migration, poverty, price rise and corruption.
05:11These are the five top issues in Bihar.
05:14Somehow, the voter adhikar yatra or the voter manipulation charges is not resonating with the opposition voters,
05:22as in the voters of the NDA and the floating voters.
05:26It is largely resonating with the core vote bloc of the Congress and its allies,
05:31which means that it may not have significant electoral impact,
05:35because for that, you need to win the support of NDA or BJP and voters from other parties.
05:42You see, Congress could, the performance of the Congress is likely to decide the fate of this election,
05:48because it is fighting on around 61 seats.
05:51On nine seats, there are friendly fights.
05:53And on 50 of these 61 seats, it is pitted against stronger players, you can say, in the Bihar Premier League,
06:01which is the JDU and the BJP.
06:03So, the performance of the Congress party will decide the fate of the India bloc in Bihar.
06:10And if, for any matter, it is not able to perform well, or its strike rate is just like in 2020,
06:19then question marks would arise about the fact that the Congress perhaps is the weak link amongst the regional parties.
06:27And also, there could be a question mark or there could be voices as to who should lead the India bloc,
06:33whether it should be the Congress party or whether it should leave it to the regional parties
06:37to do this logging with the BJP.
06:42Michael, let's get you in this conversation.
06:44This election is happening at a time that is pretty fragile for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
06:51We have concerns about the election.
06:53We have U.S.-India trade negotiations also front and center.
06:57How might this be, you know, playing out in terms of the psyche of the voters?
07:03Well, you're right. It is an important moment.
07:05And for Modi in particular, I'd argue that he's still trying to shape the criticism
07:09that he's become vulnerable to the anti-incumbency factor,
07:13someone who served multiple terms and indeed did not perform as well as many had expected in the general elections last year.
07:19And in that sense, you know, this is an opportunity to show that his party is still strong.
07:25And the BJP has won a number of state elections since those general elections last year.
07:30But, you know, the Bihar election comes in the midst of a very busy state election cycle in India.
07:37After the Bihar election, there's going to be several other key elections for the BJP,
07:41including one in West Bengal, which is the fourth most populous state in India, Bihar being number three.
07:47So I think that for Modi and the BJP, this is an opportunity to show that he and his party
07:51can maintain momentum from the last few months.
07:54And that would be very that would be good. That would be strong to to take them to take the party and the leader
08:00and the B and Modi into these next cycle of elections in the coming months.
08:05But, yes, there's a lot going on in India and geopolitically that has certainly put some pressure on Modi,
08:12though I would argue that, you know, when it comes to the trade talks with the U.S.
08:15and the 50 percent tariffs that have certainly raised concerns, economic concerns for India,
08:20I would argue that Modi has not necessarily lost popularity for that.
08:24I think that many in India actually applaud how the Indian negotiating team refused to give in
08:30and make the concessions that the U.S. side wanted it to make.
08:34I think that that was appreciated as showing strength, particularly given that a number of other countries
08:39that did make deals with the U.S. made many more concessions.
08:43But, you know, bottom line is, you know, there are issues happening in India,
08:46such as unemployment, for example, that have put a lot of pressure on Modi.
08:50And Bihar is one of the poorest states in India. Unemployment is a major issue.
08:54So being able to win this election despite that significant obstacle,
08:58that'll definitely be something for the BJP to have to focus on.
09:02If it does prevail, that'll be a big achievement for the BJP in that regard.
09:08Do you expect unemployment to, I guess, tip it over for Modi?
09:13I mean, his track record hasn't been good.
09:15And as you said, this is, you know, the poorest state out there.
09:19And it's not looking good.
09:23Well, yeah, I mean, there are a number of issues at play in this election.
09:26Certainly jobs is one of them.
09:28And we've seen that Modi has announced a series of new welfare measures,
09:32particularly those that target women.
09:33I believe that women comprise about 50 percent of the voter base in Bihar.
09:38And, you know, the BJP is promising to create jobs.
09:42But, you know, the economy in Bihar is fragile.
09:45So it may not be that easy just to suddenly generate so many jobs over in so little time.
09:51But clearly, you know, one talks about identity politics and Hindu nationalism and the BJP agenda.
09:57I do think that for the most part, that, you know, the issues that are going to really play out and be most resonant in this election,
10:05the ones that are going to matter the most are, you know, bread and butter issues when it comes to jobs, concerns about the economy.
10:11Those are the issues that have really been very prominent on the campaign trail for BJP.
10:19Amitabh, I want to pick up some of the issues Michael touched upon with you.
10:22First, anti-incumbency.
10:23Your surveys seem to suggest that whilst there is significant anti-incumbency against local representatives,
10:29it isn't playing out in as much measure against the state's chief minister, Nitish Kumar,
10:35who, you know, some might say could become chief minister all over again.
10:39What's your take on that?
10:42Yeah, because it's often said that Prime Minister Modi enjoys a Teflon coating,
10:47but it also applies to Nitish Kumar, who is the chief minister of Bihar.
10:51Bihar has been one of the states which records the poorest or the lowest per capita income
10:57and is very poor on the HDI indicators.
11:00But despite that, he has been winning election after election
11:03and despite the fact that he has been changing partners also in some of the elections.
11:09So he still continues to be popular, largely among women,
11:14and also a section of the EBCs and the non-Yala OBCs.
11:19And the schemes which he has implemented for women,
11:23including the improved law and order situation like the cycle distribution,
11:28scholarships for girls, reservations for women in police and other local panchayats,
11:35and now this Rupees 10,000, you can say, a seed capital for encouraging them to start a business.
11:42All of this has developed a core vote base of the women folk.
11:47He has been able to do that.
11:49And the anti-incumbency is largely against the government.
11:52When I say government, government includes the chief minister,
11:55but it also includes the other ministers, the bureaucracy, officials and the MLAs.
12:00So there seems to be some anger.
12:01So Amitabh, let me ask you this.
12:02Let me interrupt and ask you this.
12:05If they believe they have a strong chance, the BJP and Nitish Kumar's party,
12:11then why this significant giveaway through freebies?
12:16Do you see that as desperation or just simply insurance to make sure that they return to power?
12:22No, see, the level of anti-incumbency, if you see our trackers at vote by, was very high.
12:27It continues to remain high at 48%.
12:31People said that the level of anti-incumbency is high or there is strong anti-incumbency.
12:36Only 18% people or respondents said that the anti-incumbency or there is pro-incumbency
12:42and 22% were neutral in July.
12:46So through a series of steps like this Rupees 10,000 cash income support,
12:51what has happened is that the government has been able to turn some of the people
12:55who are saying that they are neutral about the anti-incumbency into pro-incumbency.
13:01So now in the last tracker in September, October, the pro-incumbency levels increased to 32% from 18%.
13:08So they realized that there was a discontent, perhaps because of agri-distress,
13:13unemployment, oral distress, and took these steps to improve their position in the upcoming elections.
13:20So Amitabh, do you think that the BJP, JDU combined will return to power in Bihar in many ways endorsing
13:29Prime Minister Modi's popularity in India, you know, allowing Nitish Kumar to return as chief minister?
13:36Is that the most likely scenario at this point, according to you?
13:38So see, yesterday in phase 1, the turnout has been one of the highest in Bihar's history.
13:47So a number which is keenly awaited is what is the female turnout versus male turnout.
13:52The female turnout historically in Bihar after Nitish has come to power is more than 3 to 5% of the male turnout.
14:00So if the same trend continues, what we have also seen is that JDU particularly has a very high strike rate in seats where the women outvote men.
14:11It's up from, it ranges from 70% to 90% of the seats.
14:15So we'll have to wait for the final figures of the ECI with respect to gender turnout.
14:20If the gender turnout is fairly high compared to males, then it is advantage NDA.
14:24Otherwise, it is advantage the India bloc or the Mahagadbandan because youth and primarily male youth because the worker participation rate amongst females is low in Bihar.
14:36It is youth which is disenchanted with the government and suffering from unemployment and migration and the male youth.
14:42Michael, let's get your perspective on the turnout, whether it's youth, whether it's women.
14:48What assumptions are you making?
14:51Yeah, I mean, this turnout factor is really significant.
14:53As Amitabh said, some of the highest turnout we've seen in Bihar in recent years and perhaps ever.
14:59I mean, the government figure, as I recall, is about 65%.
15:02That's significant.
15:03And I think that that's something that the opposition might latch on to and say, okay, with so many people worried about poverty, unemployment,
15:11that the high turnout must suggest some type of protest vote against the government and in favor of the opposition.
15:17But, you know, those that are in power now may conclude or hope that this is just a case of people coming out enthusiastically to show support for the current government.
15:29But, yeah, absolutely, there's still things that we need to determine, such as, you know, the number of women voters and so on.
15:35But basically, at this point, each, you know, the governing coalition and the opposition can both point to the high turnout as something that will benefit them.
15:43We'll just have to see what happens in the second round of voting next week and then wait for the results later next week.
15:48I'll go back to Amitabh with this question on, you know, Prashant Kishore, who is the third corner in this challenge.
15:58Amitabh, do you think he has the potential opportunity to play kingmaker?
16:02Do you think this becomes a muddle of a government?
16:05Will it go all the way down to the wire or will it be a decisive sort of victory for either side?
16:12So, if the Jansuraj party does well, then it is likely to be a closer election.
16:18The worse the Jansuraj party or Prashant Kishore does, then it is likely to be a comfortable majority for either of the alliances.
16:26See, it's just been three years and Bihar is dominated by caste politics.
16:31So, he does not have a base on which he can add on vote share.
16:35Like when he does, when he advises political parties, there is already a base of that political party and you add 2%, 3% to enable them to win.
16:44So, he has, you can say that set the agenda in terms of raising issues.
16:49Some could even argue that he has raised more valid points than the opposition has raised perhaps in Bihar.
16:56And he has traction amongst youth and also amongst a large section of migrants.
17:02And there is some sort of undercurrent.
17:04So, one cannot gauge as to whether this is likely to convert into votes or not.
17:10On 83 seats in 2020, the victory margin was less than equal to 5%.
17:17So, if he gets anything above 5%, then he is likely to spoil the prospects of either the NDA or the India bloc.
17:24So, he is likely to more play the role of a spoiler in this election.
17:29Some of the tactical mistakes I think perhaps committed is that he did not himself contest the elections.
17:35And we have not seen a manifesto from Jansuraj party, which is very, very intriguing.
17:42Sure.
17:43Michael, we...
17:44One quick last question, Amitav.
17:45Oh, Hass.
17:47Go ahead.
17:47Go ahead.
17:48Go ahead.
17:51Okay, I just had this quick last question, Hass.
17:53Michael pointed out the big other state elections next year.
17:57And my question to Amitav was simply that, you know, what happens in Bihar?
18:01Will that have any bearing on West Bengal or Tamil Nadu or Kerala?
18:05Because those are very strong opposition party-led states.
18:10Yes, so those are very strong opposition party-led states.
18:13And I don't think in terms of bearing, it might have any bearing,
18:18apart from the fact that, of course, it would motivate or energize the cadre of the BJP
18:23or the NDA to do well in some states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu,
18:27where it has entered into an alliance with AI-ATMK.
18:30Okay.
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