00:00What's the significance of the polls? Really, for Narendra Modi, we have to remember one thing.
00:07I was just having a look, actually, because I feel like as long as I can remember, Modi has been
00:12ruling India.
00:13It's 11 years that Modi has been in powerful. So that's a long time.
00:19It is. But, you know, as we've seen in the last year under planet Trump, anything can happen.
00:27And so I think it's it is a litmus test, basically, for Modi.
00:33And in some ways, because he's been in for such a long time, people might think, oh, we want to
00:37change.
00:38And the four states that are sort of going to represent about sort of 20 percent of the Indian population.
00:45So it's a sort of significant sort of test to see what is likely to happen in the states ahead
00:53of federal elections later on.
00:55And if you look at the different states, there's one there's one of them that's pretty much guaranteed for Modi.
00:59There's two of them where the outlook is going to be quite tight.
01:03And the fourth one is likely to go for the opposition.
01:06But obviously, the opposition are hoping that what's happening with the energy crisis and what's happening with the straits will
01:11will have a stranglehold on economics and will push people to vote for for change.
01:18Which is what so that's what the opposition is going to be pushing for.
01:21And there is some merit in that, because if there was only quite recently, the sort of the main Reserve
01:29Bank of India came out and said that they were going to possibly look at pushing up rates because of
01:35inflation is going up.
01:37And inflation is going up because energy is getting more expensive.
01:39Energy is more expensive because of what's happening in Iran.
01:42And so if if interest rates go up, that will make it more difficult for Indian businesses and people across
01:50the board in general.
01:51And inflation goes up.
01:53That means food is going to get more expensive.
01:54Everything is going to get more expensive in India.
01:56So the fact that only really one of the four states is guaranteed and the other three, we have to
02:05wait and see.
02:06And the fact that I think as well why this is so important is I thought it was interesting in
02:11in the analysts.
02:12They looked at the voter turnout has been really high in the first states that voted, kind of up around
02:19like 76 percent.
02:20And if you were having elections in the U.S. or the U.K. and you had that sort of
02:25level of turnout, you know, that that would be seen as, you know, completely unprecedented.
02:30So that people are coming out.
02:32They are using their vote.
02:33And Indian people in these four states are going to show what they think of Modi.
02:38And it's sort of going to be difficult to call.
02:41I think I think it's likely a lot of this sort of initial analysis that, you know, Modi will will
02:47come out tops in three of the states anyway.
02:51But we won't really know until May 4th, I think, is when we will have some sort of indication of
02:57it.
02:57But I think in the same way that, you know, the Americans will decide with Trump in the midterms towards
03:03the end of this year.
03:03And, you know, all of the electorates around the world are going to come out and give their verdict on
03:09how they think their leaders are performed.
03:11And I think this is going to be the first test for Modi to see what Indians are feeling and
03:16if they've had enough.
03:18And they won't change.
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