00:00Satish, thanks so much for your time today. I do want to start on some of those aluminium prices
00:05that have really rallied strongly this year and that's driven some strong growth for Hindulco as
00:10well. So how do you see those prices evolving over the coming quarters? Are those gains sustainable?
00:17So I think the first part for an upstream company like us is the cost curve. So what we are very
00:22confident about, we just came out of a monsoon quarter where we managed to get a pretty good
00:29cost of production, stable operations. So now going into the next two quarters, we are comfortable
00:35that our cost curve is going to hold steady. So I think on the top line itself, when you look at LME,
00:41LME is showing remarkable resilience. I think the supply and demand is quite tight. You have
00:47news of some smelters in some part of the world shutting down. So we believe that at least the
00:53December quarter, the LME is going to be quite strong. So I want to basically ask the same
01:00question, but about copper as well. How's your outlook there on pricing and market dynamics also?
01:07So look, the copper prices, I think, can only be headed one way that's upwards because the copper
01:13demand for various electrification, solar, EVs is holding quite strong. And the copper mines themselves
01:22actually are running into all sorts of supply side problems. So what that means is that copper
01:27prices are going to be, you know, holding at this $10,000, $11,000 per ton level quite comfortably.
01:35Okay, so you're optimistic about the outlook for some of these key commodities. So in terms of
01:40expansion, are there any new businesses or acquisition opportunities that you're looking at at the moment?
01:46So, you know, we have announced a fairly aggressive $5 billion worth of upstream projects in India. So we
01:55are expanding our alumina refinery, we are doubling our aluminum capacity. So I think over the next three
02:03to four years, a big expansion of the upstream business in India is what we're doing because
02:09we are running at a net debt to EBITDA negative in the Indian operations. The cash generation is very
02:15healthy. So we are really going to expand our Indian business. Indian economy is booming, Indian demand
02:22for aluminum and copper is very strong. So I think the combination is a big expansion in the India
02:28business. And offshore, I mean, you've previously announced also the acquisition of Alucam and that's
02:35been delayed, however, due to the US shutdown, as many things have been. I'm just wondering if you can
02:40give us any update on the progress of that. No, I mean, we're also waiting for the CFIUS approval
02:47and it's been delayed because of the government shutdown. We hope that it will come through in
02:52this December quarter. And you've also announced a $750 million infusion into Nivellis. There've been
03:01a few disruptions there, a fire incident as well. When do you think you're going to cease a Nivellis
03:07listing? No, I think that for us, the priority today in Nivellis is to finish Bay Minet and get
03:15Nivellis to be cash flow positive again, which we think will happen in calendar year 28. So I think
03:22until then, we are focused on getting the operations table, finishing the large Bay Minet project.
03:29I just wanted to mention that Nivellis actually had a pretty good Q3. If you take out the impact of
03:34the tariffs, their EBITDA per ton was over $505 per ton. Underlying market demand for CAN is extremely
03:41strong. So I think that, you know, our focus in Nivellis is to restart the Oswego mill, which we
03:48hope we'll do by the first week of December. And I think that going into next year is going to be
03:53finishing Bay Minet. That's our priority. Now, of course, India and the US have been experiencing
04:00some tension on the trade side of things. I'm wondering what you're looking at in terms of
04:05manufacturing expansion in the United States. You're considering relocating any projects there
04:11to boost capacity and, you know, also negate the impact of tariffs? Actually, that is our strategy
04:18because if you see Bay Minet, the $5 billion project is going to act 600,000 tons of rolling
04:25capacity into the US in Alabama. And that can be expanded to 1.2 million tons. So we'll be having
04:32over 2 million tons of rolling capacity in the US going forward. So we think that that is going to
04:38be certainly a differentiator because going forward, the US market will want aluminium that is rolled or
04:45extruded in the US. And I don't think exports are going to be viable in the long run.
04:50How do you see the trading relationship between the US and India evolving in 2026? Do you anticipate
05:00more upheaval or do you have some optimism? I think we are generally very optimistic about
05:07the US-India relationship. Could you give us any more detail about that? Why do you feel optimistic?
05:16No, I think that's because it's a long relationship. There is a mutual reliance from a geopolitical point
05:24of view. The two, the prime minister and the president get along very well. So I think that's
05:29why we are very optimistic. Of course, India's got a very weak rupee at the moment. How is that weighing
05:37on your business? And are you doing anything to mitigate against it?
05:40So really, if you see, our top line is dollar denominated and our costs are rupee denominated.
05:48So weaker rupee actually is very beneficial to Hindalco India.
05:54You were talking about the robust domestic demands in India at the moment for many of your products.
06:00Can you tell us a little bit about how you see the infrastructure build out in India progressing?
06:04So in India, a couple of things have happened. GST 2.0, which is the rationalization of the
06:12wax structure as was just announced. So what has happened is there is a huge, the Diwali season has
06:19been very, very robust from a consumption point of view. So when we look at demand for aluminum and
06:25copper, it's been driven by building and construction. The infrastructure builds are quite healthy.
06:30Electrification, packaging, white goods, industrials. So all the sectors, we are seeing like 8% to 10% growth
06:39from a demand point of view for both aluminum and copper.
06:45Do you have any concerns around risks in India, particularly around the consumption side of things?
06:51So I think that the overall risk remains and driven by macroeconomic situations worldwide. So
06:59right now, generally, the U.S. economy, Chinese economy are doing relatively well. Europe is stable
07:06and India is doing quite well. So unless there is some major upheaval in the larger economies in the
07:13world, I think India is on a good track right now.
07:16How are you managing input costs at the moment? Because a lot of your industries are quite energy
07:21intensive. So I think for us, the input cost, which is really power. And in India, a large part of our
07:31power is coal based. The availability of coal, the power of the cost of power coming from coal is very
07:38much under control. And we'll be having our own coal mine. So we'll be backward integrated. So I think
07:43that is really the strength of the Hindalco upstream business is that control on our power
07:48costs. We are seeing a bit of inflation when it gets to calcine, petroleum, coke, which we have to
07:54largely import from outside of India. But on the alumina and the power costs, this is where our strength
08:01is.
08:03And what are you doing in terms of approaching your carbon footprint? Are you doing anything on that
08:09front to reduce the size of that? We are actually very, very active. We have committed to 30 percent
08:17of non-coal based or green power by 2030. This year, by the March quarter, we'll be more than 500
08:25megawatts of solar, wind and pumped hydro. So side by side with the coal, we steadily make progress
08:33because an aluminium smelter needs round the power renewable. So that is what makes it technically
08:38challenging. But we are actually ahead from compared to many other companies in this journey towards
08:44getting more low carbon power into our mix.
08:49One of the key ingredients of renewable energy also is rare earths. And this is something the United
08:54States is very keen to diversify its sources, breaking China's stranglehold on that market.
09:02Are you exploring any rare earths projects at the moment?
09:04We are. The Indian government is also actually quite seized about rare earths and a host of
09:12critical minerals. So we are looking at exploring many blocks in India. We are also putting up
09:19recycling because another source of rare earths is recycling electronic waste and PCBs. So quite a few
09:26initiatives led by the Indian government that Hindalco is a part of.
09:29Of course, timelines to get rare earths projects up and running are quite long. It's an expensive
09:36business as well. So when might we expect to see some of those projects start to appear in
09:42Delco's bottom line?
09:44So I think that, you know, our e-waste recycling project will get commissioned by December of next
09:50year. So I think in the calendar year 28, we should start to see some of the benefits of those rare
09:57earths coming out of electronic waste in, let's say, calendar year 28.
10:03Of course, we've got elections in Bihar underway. How closely are you watching that and would it
10:08potentially have any impact on your operations?
10:11No, actually not. I think that we are very much focused on our business.
10:17OK, it's probably a wise way to be. So looking ahead to the coming quarters, what are the key risks
10:22that you see on the horizon? I think that, you know, for us, I keep repeating the for us in the
10:29business, the economic uncertainty with geopolitical turmoil remains our biggest risk. We hope that
10:35trade frictions will ease out and the economic environment will get stable. And I think on the
10:42commodity side, you know, as long as the economies are fine, the demand for aluminium and copper will
10:48continue to be strong because of electrification and data centres, etc. So I think the biggest risk
10:55for us remains what I guess is there for everyone in the world today, that trade frictions and economic
11:01uncertainty go away.
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