Buccaneers vs. Patriots: High Stakes and Strategy Breakdown

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00:00With the Bucs and the Patriots.

00:02The number's been a little bit on the move this morning

00:04where we've seen at least one three appear on the Tampa Bay side.

00:08It is mostly two and a half, though, as we look around.

00:12And this is a really interesting spot, Joe.

00:15I really like a game like this where is either team in a panic

00:19if they lose this game?

00:21Not at all.

00:22But narrative-wise, you have a lot on the line here, I think, right?

00:25Where the winner is going to feel and be discussed

00:29as one of the comfortable 10 best teams in this league,

00:32maybe six best teams in the league.

00:35The loser, people will start to discuss in a more fraudulent manner,

00:41record-inflated due to different situations,

00:45whether that be a soft schedule or late comebacks.

00:48When you start to break down Bucs-Patch, what stands out to you?

00:52Well, the total for me, I mean, even though there's a little bit

00:55of limited personnel for Baker Mayfield,

00:57I'm buying into the over 48 and a half,

01:00strictly because when they're winning games,

01:03Baker is chucking it all over the yard.

01:05And again, I understand that they were a dominant rushing attack last year

01:09with Rashad White and Bucky Irvin,

01:11but this offense now, with Irvin out,

01:14they can't run the football with Rashad White consistently.

01:17And up against a very good front seven that shuts down the run,

01:21they're going to have to be exploited over the top.

01:23Atlanta threw the football against them last week,

01:27and I think Baker will follow suit.

01:29I do like Tampa Bay playing at home.

01:31I'm not sold on the dominance for New England.

01:34I think Tampa Bay is the much stronger team,

01:36even though the offensive weapons aren't there.

01:39I still believe in the defense.

01:40I believe in Bulls.

01:42And I certainly believe in Baker over Drake May in this matchup.

01:45But it's heavily, not heavily juiced, minus 118 to the under 48 and a half.

01:51But I think we can get into the 50s.

01:53I'm so interested in what we're going to see from these two quarterbacks here.

01:57I'll say on the Baker's piece of it very quickly,

01:59Baker, his two most recent outings were his two worst.

02:04And I think that is pretty undeniable when you take a look at it.

02:10He had one touchdown pass to one interception over the two games.

02:14His completion percentage was under 60%.

02:17Yardage-wise, nothing to write home about.

02:19The yards per pass attempt were very, very low.

02:21It just didn't run the ball once in either of two games.

02:25Just not much doing from Baker in those setups.

02:29But I think now coming off of the bye gives him an opportunity to kind of,

02:34all right, reset and get back into a bit of a rhythm here.

02:37You know, it became a lot on Baker, I think, Joe, right,

02:41where it felt like he was doing everything.

02:44They were super banged up.

02:46They're not as healthy as you would think coming out of a bye.

02:49No.

02:49Right?

02:49We knew Mike Evans wouldn't be back.

02:51But no Godwin, no Bucky Irving.

02:54That's tough.

02:55You expect, again, you get a little bit of help up front offensive line-wise.

02:59I do expect Baker to play well.

03:02I am so interested in what we see from Drake May.

03:04I think that Drake May being a guy is clear as day.

03:09We know that's going to be the case.

03:11But it's to what degree is that going to be this season.

03:14And everyone acknowledges that the Patriots schedule is super soft, right?

03:20Your biggest Pats fan is well aware of that situation.

03:25What's interesting is it never factors into the conversation of evaluating how

03:28Drake May has looked this year.

03:29He's been brilliant.

03:30But a lot of that is they are playing bad defense after bad defense after bad

03:35defense.

03:36Todd Bowles off a bye here.

03:38I'm very interested to see what type of situations he can put Drake May in.

03:43That feels like the edge for Tampa Bay in this game, Jeff.

03:46Yeah.

03:46I just feel like Tampa Bay's defense, again, they're better than people give them

03:51credit for.

03:52Yeah.

03:52And they're very difficult to run on, right?

03:54So the running a game for me with New England is not going to be there today.

03:58So that means potentially long third downs for Drake May in that offense.

04:03He doesn't have Keyshawn Booty in the lineup today.

04:06Is it checkdowns to the tight end?

04:07Is it the running backs coming out of the backfield?

04:10I am curious to see game flow for them.

04:13Because again, if I'm Todd Bowles, I'm blitzing on third down every opportunity I get.

04:19Playing at home, I think they force some pressure.

04:21And again, you look at Atlanta.

04:24Atlanta shut them down in the second half to get back into that game.

04:27Right.

04:28So their offense didn't look that great.

04:31And I don't think Atlanta's defense lights out.

04:35I think Tampa has a much better, excuse me, defense than, I just think that they're physical.

04:43You watch them play against San Francisco.

04:45You watch them play against some of these other teams that step up in competition.

04:50They dominate.

04:50And again, I think, yes, they're 7-2 New England.

04:55But for me, they beat up on lesser competition.

04:58They beat up on frauds.

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