Texas A&M vs. Missouri SEC Showdown Game Preview & Picks

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00:00There's no games I'd rather talk about than in the SEC,

00:03and that's the Texas A&M Aggies taking on the Missouri Tigers.

00:06If we line this game up today, Joe,

00:08opened up at 5.5 as a favorite for Texas A&M, unbeaten on the road.

00:12I now see FanDuel listed at 6.5, DraftKings 6.5,

00:15BetMGM and Bet365, Joe, up to 7, a touchdown favorite.

00:20Is it because Missouri lost last week? Talk to me, Joe.

00:22No, I mean, Missouri does have quarterback issues.

00:25Matt Zollers does get the start. He's a freshman.

00:27He took over for Bo Pribula when he got injured against Vanderbilt.

00:31He is battle-tested, stepped up with 200 passing yards on the season,

00:35two touchdowns, one interception.

00:37You're talking about a team in Texas A&M that has won two straight against the Tigers.

00:41They absolutely dominated them last year, won by 27 points at home in College Station.

00:47They've owned the series in back-to-back years, and they're battle-tested,

00:513-0 on the road or on a neutral field.

00:53They beat teams like Notre Dame on the road,

00:56beat teams like Arkansas, so they are a step up in competition in tough spots.

01:02They won the three games on the road by an average margin of victory of 9.3 points per game,

01:07have a mobile quarterback, and defensively,

01:09they're only giving up 3.8 yards per rush against opposing offenses.

01:14And Donnie, the number two-ranked third-down defense in all FBS,

01:19holding opposing offenses to 22% on third downs.

01:23The last five games of the regular season, they've held opponents to 8 of 55 attempts.

01:29That's 14%.

01:30Opponents can't move the football on third down.

01:33That's why you're seeing 6.5s and 7s in the market.

01:36I will say, Drinkowitz and Missouri are very good at home, 18-2.

01:41Over the past couple of seasons, this year, they've won by an average margin of victory, Donnie,

01:45of 30.6 points per game.

01:47Only game they lost was Alabama, but they pushed that game.

01:50So they lost it outright, but still pushed the three points.

01:54I think they could be live today.

01:55I don't know if they win it, but you want to give me a full touchdown with a home dog,

01:59I think they could be barking.

02:00I'll tell you right now, one of the things that's been most impressive for me, Joe,

02:04as you take a look, is Texas A&M on the offensive side of the football.

02:06You look at Auburn, that 16-10 win that they had about a month, month and a half ago.

02:10But outside of that, Joe, look at the games, 42-44, 41-31, 34-45, and most recently, it's

02:15LSU, 49 points.

02:18So heading to this game also, this is their third straight road game, which is something

02:21interesting to watch out for.

02:22And even if you think, Joe, it's like, hey, if they win this game, they're automatically

02:25in the SEC championship game, because you have South Carolina and Sanford, but you still

02:29have on the road, Joe, against Texas to end the season.

02:32A&M's unbeaten in conference play, so is Alabama.

02:35Georgia right behind them, 5-1, Ole Miss 5-1, Texas 4-1.

02:38There is a lot of football left to be played here, and it just feels like they have the

02:42breaks that you need if you can beat Missouri, Joe.

02:45But this season goes chaos if they lose today.

02:47Right, if they lose, and then there's that game against Texas where they lost that game

02:52last year, 17-7, and Texas, let's just say, has two losses if they defeat Georgia next

02:58week.

02:59All of a sudden, now we're jockeying for how many SEC teams potentially with two losses

03:03down the stretch.

03:04You need to get this game if you're an A&M backer, because now you have a little bit

03:08of breathing room, right?

03:09You go 9-0, all of a sudden now, you win the non-conference in a couple of weeks.

03:14You could afford to potentially lose that game against Texas in a rivalry matchup.

03:19I'm not suggesting they do, but you still have a margin of error if you're undefeated

03:23entering week number 13.

03:25So we'll see how this plays out.

03:27From a defensive perspective, you give the edge right now to A&M.

03:30The way they went into Baton Rouge just a couple of weeks ago and beat up LSU on both

03:35sides of the football, they are legit.

03:37Elko's done a fantastic job.

03:39They forced turnovers.

03:40Very difficult to throw the football.

03:43I lean to the under here.

03:44If you're taking Missouri, I don't think you can get into a shootout with Marcel Reed just

03:48because of how inconsistent Missouri's offense has been, especially a couple weeks ago against

03:53Vanderbilt.

03:54I think it's an under if you're taking Missouri.

03:56But if you're backing A&M, you know, full throttle ahead, take A&M in the over in this

04:01ballgame.

04:01Now, see, a lot of people watch this football show and understand, like, Texas A&M is the

04:04better team, their favorite, 8-0 in the season, 5-0 in the SEC.

04:07But I want you to make a pitch, Joe, for why people should be backing Missouri.

04:11Like, down your starting quarterback, playing an undefeated team, lost last week, you know,

04:16close games all the way through for the past month.

04:17Why should people, if they want to, back Missouri today?

04:20Well, I'm backing them for three factors.

04:22One, I still think they can run the football with Ahmad Horny.

04:24They're averaging well over 200 yards per game.

04:28Defensively, Donnie, they're only allowing 90 rushing yards per game, holding opposing

04:31offenses to basically three and a half yards per carry.

04:35And they play solid third down defense, 27% entering this matchup.

04:39Back end in the secondary, forced teams like Alabama to work down the field.

04:44Even though Ty Simpson had a field day, he threw three touchdowns.

04:48He only threw for 200 yards.

04:49Ryan Williams was held without a catch in that matchup.

04:52Statistically, they're only allowing 155 passing yards per game.

04:57So they play these ugly, blue-collar, lower-scoring games, just the way they did against Auburn,

05:02the way they did against other teams as well, like Vanderbilt, right?

05:06If they get A&M into that type of game, A&M might win, but I think Missouri's going to be

05:11live with the touchdown.

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