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00:00What a time for you to start this job. Are you sure you want to do this?
00:03I tell you, it's been great. I love working for the industry in that there's obviously a challenge.
00:09It's a challenge on a normal day, but I effectively work for the nine CEOs of the nine largest air carriers in America.
00:16And they're crying to reopen the government.
00:18Oh, yeah. Well, they're not trying to reopen the government.
00:20They're crying.
00:21Yeah, they're crying. Oh, no, absolutely.
00:23And it's everything from being on the phones to, you know, talking to folks on Capitol Hill
00:27and letting them understand that, you know, what's happening, especially with this new mandate to cut back rolling up to 10 percent of flights.
00:34I mean, that's that'll hit them alone about one hundred million dollars a day.
00:39Right. And then you look at the broader economic impact, which we estimate to be at least a quarter billion,
00:43if not, you know, close to maybe half a billion a day when you look at the hotel rooms and all the other things that go with travel.
00:49Right. So so it has a huge economic impact, as you can see from those images right there.
00:54These these cuts that are being mandated really are going to go into effect.
00:59Starting today, roll about four percent till till Monday.
01:02And then that scales up to 10 percent by next week, all because not for anything that the airlines have done or anything the American public has done.
01:09Unfortunately, these are just the victims of bad politics up on Capitol Hill.
01:13Were the airlines prepared?
01:15Was there already a contingency plan in place and set into motion?
01:18Because we knew that this government shutdown was coming and that it wasn't looking likely like it was going to end anytime soon.
01:23So the airlines are prepared. They have amazing teams. They know how to adjust.
01:28I got to say, as if you told me on on day 38 that we were dealing with a few delays, as you could see from those.
01:34And I think the average TSA line today across the country was like 15 to 20 minutes.
01:39Some got up to 30 minutes. So it was actually wasn't that bad.
01:41Some as quick as two minutes if you're going through pre-check.
01:43So both the airlines, I think, were prepared in terms of being able to move folks around.
01:48The mandated cancellations is different. Right.
01:51Having delays, we've seen a lot of delays, but actually very few cancellations up until this point.
01:55Now the mandated cancellations being driven for safety.
01:59There's real data that show that the pressure on the system is going to continue to build.
02:04Last weekend was some real tough days.
02:07Halloween night was really, really tough.
02:08That's going to continue to grow as the call outs, both on the TSA and the air traffic controller side increase and the demand builds as we get closer to Thanksgiving.
02:19So I think the FAA is being smart and saying, OK, we're not going to wait for this thing to come to a grinding halt.
02:24We're going to ask folks to proactively cancel a certain number of flights.
02:27The head of the FAA, Brian Bedford, he's terrific.
02:30He's a former CEO of an airline.
02:32He totally understands what this impact means.
02:34He understands that it isn't just we cancel the flight, managing crews from point A to point B, knowing that folks could potentially be stranded because their first flight was fine, but the second leg is now canceled, moving those folks.
02:47And the big message is use your airline's apps to the American public.
02:52They're not going to cancel you last second.
02:53They're trying to do it as proactively as they can.
02:56This mandate really just came down in the last 24 hours.
02:58So it's going to hit some folks hard, and I think the airlines are doing everything they can and really successfully so far in managing that customer service aspect.
03:07But it's tough, and it's all because a bunch of folks down the street here, not too far from us, keep saying no to a continuing resolution.
03:13That's exactly why you didn't want to serve in the Senate, as I remember, was this kind of stuff.
03:16But, you know, I flew back and forth to New York this week.
03:19It took me hours to get up and hours to get back.
03:21But I actually felt safe in the process, and I will say, I mean, I really went out of my way to thank TSA workers for showing up.
03:29I can't thank air traffic controllers because they don't let me in the tower.
03:32You can right now.
03:32Yeah, well, thank you.
03:34Because, I mean, these are actually all patriots who are showing up to keep the country running, and that's really important.
03:41But you're also a politician.
03:43Well, you were anyway.
03:44And I'm wondering how you see this moment in time because it might well be the air traffic control system that forces an end to this shutdown.
03:50Do you think in the next couple of weeks everybody gets to the table here?
03:53Because you just painted a pretty ugly picture.
03:55Yeah, they absolutely have to because the pressure on the aviation system and the national airspace as we hit Thanksgiving is going to be absolutely immense.
04:02And I don't like using the word disaster.
04:04But I think the Secretary is right.
04:06If it doesn't end probably in the next week or the next 10 days, there is a chance they have to ramp up beyond 10 percent.
04:11What would Thanksgiving look like?
04:13Disaster is the word J.D. Vance used.
04:15Complete gridlock.
04:17Yeah.
04:17Complete gridlock.
04:18Because the demand on the system is well beyond, you know, it'll hit about 3 million passengers a day.
04:24That forced cancellation and unintended delays will hit really just historic proportions at that point.
04:31So this is already completely unprecedented.
04:33Totally.
04:33They didn't want to do it.
04:34There's a lot.
04:35I know there were some folks saying, well, where's the data?
04:37There's plenty of data.
04:38Just look at the number of callouts we have.
04:40Look at the slowdowns we have.
04:41We had a situation in Burbank a month ago where they literally had nobody in the tower left.
04:45That's right.
04:45Right?
04:46Now, thank God they got creative.
04:47And San Diego stepped up and was helping land those planes.
04:49We had the same thing in Nashville.
04:51And Memphis stepped up and was helping land those planes.
04:52Good work.
04:53So everyone is pitching in.
04:54As you said, God bless these workers.
04:56Every time you walk through a TSA line, please say thank you to these folks.
04:59Absolutely.
04:59They have not been paid in over 30 days.
05:02You know what?
05:02The average TSA worker, they're getting $35,000, $40,000 a year maybe.
05:06I don't think most people know that.
05:07Because they're not very well-paid individuals, but they keep coming to work.
05:10They keep doing the forced overtime because they know how important their job is to the
05:14national airspace.
05:15And they're just at the tip of the spear of the victims on this one.
05:17Well, one of the vulnerabilities of the air traffic system is that it doesn't actually
05:21take that many people calling out for us to see disruptions.
05:25This has long been an issue.
05:26We've spoken about it many times on this program.
05:29We like to talk about long-term economic impacts, long-term impacts to the workforce.
05:33Is there any concern among the airlines that the shutdown is going to have damaging impacts
05:38even once the government reopens?
05:40Is it going to be hard to get air traffic controllers back into work?
05:44So a couple of things.
05:45If you looked at the number of individuals who have already retired in the past month,
05:48air traffic controllers, every day.
05:50It could be a point.
05:51Every day.
05:51It could be another dozen.
05:52Every single day this thing goes on.
05:54Because they're saying, look, they don't want to be part of this frustration anymore in
05:58the system.
05:58Maybe they're taking their retirement, whatever it is.
06:00Now, God bless them.
06:01There's about 10,000, 11,000 of them out there.
06:03We probably need 13,000 in the system.
06:05Then you look at the number of people that are looking to come in, right?
06:08Maybe they were scheduled to come in to be part of the training programs for air traffic
06:12control.
06:13We've seen those numbers decrease quite a bit.
06:15The government workers that need to certify all that.
06:18Those are government workers.
06:19Well, they're all furloughed right now, right?
06:20So now they can't do their job to get the back end of the pipeline to get people into those
06:25towers as fast.
06:26So that's really kind of jammed up.
06:27So every day that this goes on, you're disincentivizing people from entering the workforce.
06:32And it's a great job.
06:33They're wonderful jobs.
06:35We have great schools.
06:36This administration's put money with new technology all over the country for this.
06:39So the adverse effects, other than we have delays and a few cancellations, to your point
06:44on the long term, could be absolutely huge.
06:46And on the economic side, if I may, you're already seeing pullback from people booking
06:49flights.
06:50Airlines tend to be a lead economic indicator as you go into holidays.
06:54That's where people spend dollars first.
06:56And as those dollars get pulled back, they then get pulled back and your regular spends
07:01are both regionally and nationally.
07:02So when I talk about the overall economic impact being somewhere in the quarter billion to a
07:08half a billion dollars a day, that's going to have repercussions for months, all the
07:12way through the holiday season, undoubtedly.
07:14And the system just doesn't come back on like a light switch.
07:16Well, that's what I want to ask you.
07:18By the way, you can't get a seat on Amtrak right now.
07:20But how long does it take?
07:20We all know what residual delays are like, right?
07:22Maybe there's a big impact on the air traffic control system for like three hours and it
07:27takes the next day for everyone around the country to get back on time.
07:31If they come, if they come, if they could, maybe they've gone on vacation, maybe they're
07:33taking some time with family, who knows?
07:35So it isn't just a light switch.
07:37You'll, you'll actually need to see that data and make sure folks come in and it's anticipated.
07:41Usually it takes a day or two, but it, there is a little bit of a lag there.
07:46And then how close is that lag to that holiday weekend and how much of people actually pull
07:50back in right now, because the airlines have so much flexibility for the customer, people
07:54aren't canceling just yet, nor should they, nobody should cancel.
07:57The two big messages are don't cancel your trip because you can wait right up until the
08:01end really before you cancel, say if you had to do that.
08:04Secondly, it's safe.
08:05The safety is not the concern because that's why we're canceling flights.
08:09That's why we're slowing things down to ensure that safety.
08:12So anyone who is traveling feel a hundred percent safe and secure about the flights that they
08:16are taking.
08:16Think of it this way, no pilot would ever get in an airplane, you know, and take off
08:20if they thought it wasn't safe, right?
08:21That would be crazy.
08:22So, uh, so no, this, the system itself is safe.
08:24It is just in a bit of this, uh, inadvertent log jam.
08:27So it's frustrating, but I, you go back to your original question.
08:29I love the challenge.
08:31You know, I've managed everything from a COVID pandemic to now, you know, I said that this
08:35is, this is child.
08:35That's why you're here, I guess as a problem solver, Tyler, I wouldn't want to have to put
08:39this jigsaw puzzle together though, with all these routes.
08:41I mean, definitely not, but to continue on your, your politics expertise, you mentioned
08:46these airlines are talking on Capitol Hill.
08:49We know that CEOs were at the white house.
08:50Can you give us any insight into what the talks are actually looking like when it comes
08:53to president Trump's involvement?
08:55We know to resolve the last shutdown, it really was pressure at the airport.
08:59Have you gotten any indication that this is going to be perhaps the thing that tips this
09:04over the edge to reopen the government when it comes to president Trump's view of the
09:08situation?
09:08Interesting.
09:09So a couple aspects.
09:10Number one, we are definitely hearing at least on Capitol Hill, that things are moving.
09:13There are discussions happening.
09:15The last I heard, and I don't quote me on this.
09:17I mean, don't make it public or anything, but I believe the Senate is going to be here
09:21through the weekend working.
09:23So that's, so that's a good sign, right?
09:24So that's a good sign.
09:25They, they wouldn't be spending their, their time here if they weren't, if they didn't
09:28think they were making some real headway.
09:29They know what this new mandate out of FAA really means.
09:32Secondly, of course, whether you're president Trump or Schumer or Thune or the FAA or everybody
09:40should be putting a kind of pressure on the system.
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