00:00Adair Turner is chair of the international think tank, the Energy Transitions Commission.
00:04He says the UN conference remains vital despite the absence of the United States.
00:11It's absolutely essential that at the COP, between all the countries which are there,
00:16there's a very strong restatement of determination that whatever America unfortunately does,
00:22we still believe that climate change is a problem that the world has to deal with,
00:27that we are still committed to achieving well below 2 degrees centigrade.
00:30The thing which has changed positively over the last year, and it's a continuation of a trend,
00:36but it has continued, is remarkable technological progress.
00:40We are seeing continued cost reduction in, for instance, solar PV,
00:45in the cost of electrolyzers, in particular in China, in the cost of batteries.
00:51The falling cost of batteries is really one of the most extraordinary features of the last two to three years.
00:57You know, down 50, 60 percent.
01:00And that's crucially important because it means that in many parts of the world,
01:04it really is now possible to think about building electricity systems which depend on solar plus batteries
01:12for a very significant proportion of their electricity,
01:16and via batteries can provide it throughout the day and the weeks and the year.
01:22And so I think the other thing that we need as COP, as well as a restatement of the determination
01:27that the world will pursue that target if well below 2 degrees centigrade,
01:32is we need a sort of confidence, and we need people to be grabbing the opportunities
01:37and talking about the opportunities which these trends in technology,
01:42very favourable trends in technology, now create.
01:45At the end of the last COP, there was a loose agreement, a fudge on climate finance.
01:50It's always about the money in the end, isn't it?
01:53I think what we've got to do on the climate finance thing is get beyond trying to, you know,
01:58have one big figure with a whole load of words from it,
02:02and narrow it down and deal separately with at least two different categories of climate finance.
02:08We need to say, we've got to mobilise hundreds of billions
02:12through the development banks of the world.
02:14Now, that's not grants, that's not giveaways,
02:18but it's lending or equity investment at a reasonable cost of capital.
02:22And we've all got to agree how we give the development banks of the world
02:27the resources to do that on a much greater scale,
02:30and how we also have a set of reforms to the way that some countries work,
02:35their electricity or energy systems,
02:37which enables the development banks to lend to them in a safe fashion.
02:42We've got to do that, and that's hundreds of billions or even billions, or even trillions.
02:47And then separately, we've got to say there is an issue of how do we help
02:51the very poorest countries of the world,
02:54which are most vulnerable to climate change,
02:57and that will be smaller amounts of money,
03:00more tens of billions than hundreds or even bigger billions,
03:04and that will have to be just grant finance, direct gifts.
03:08Now, by separating it and having a separate discussion about those two things,
03:13we may make progress.
03:15At each COP, there always seems to be a standoff over banning fossil fuel.
03:19I mean, we're never going to get over that, are we?
03:21Again, I think it's rhetorically useful to understand
03:26that the only way to get emissions down
03:28is to reduce our use of fossil fuels over time.
03:32Any idea that we can offset all the fossil fuels with carbon capture
03:36and keep producing fossil fuels at the current level
03:39is a bit of a delusion.
03:41But beyond getting a broad commitment,
03:44again, I think we mustn't get too hung up on these precise words.
03:49It's far more important to focus on the new things that we're going to do,
03:54the commitment to huge newer quantities of renewables,
03:59commitments to really drive energy efficiency,
04:02where there's a huge opportunity through electrification.
04:06Commitments, I would say,
04:07to try to agree international frameworks on carbon pricing,
04:12because that's the only way we're going to get decarbonization
04:15of what we sometimes call the hard-to-abate sectors of the economy,
04:19like steel, cement, chemicals, shipping, aviation.
04:23Again, I sort of think the cops have got to move away
04:27from these endless debates in the last 24 hours
04:31about statements and where's the comma here and comma that
04:35on these general philosophical issues.
04:38Let's concentrate on the positive things we need to do
04:41that we know we need to do
04:43and try and get agreement on those concrete actions.
04:46And with that, I think we'll make more progress.
04:48Let's concentrate on the positive things we need to do
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