Energy Transitions Commission Chair Lord Turner on China's Climate Targets

CGTN Europe

Lord Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, spoke to CGTN Europe. He noted China’s progress in expanding renewable energy production, cutting coal use, and reducing emissions, while urging the country to take a leading role in global efforts to curb emissions — with the goal of achieving a 90% reduction by 2050.

Transcript

00:00Well, let's talk now to Lord Adair Turner, the Chair of Energy Transitions Commission.

00:06Welcome back to the programme. Good to see you.

00:09I know you'll have heard in the last few minutes this announcement of the U.S. Energy Secretary

00:14saying the U.S. is pulling the plug on $13 billion of subsidies to subsidise green energy projects.

00:24Your reaction, first of all?

00:26Well, I don't think that's a sensible thing to do.

00:30For the future of the American economy.

00:33The future of the world economy is going to be based on electrification.

00:39It's a fundamentally superior technology.

00:43In some cases, it needs some initial subsidies to drive it through the early steps of development.

00:50But in the long term, it is going to be the way to have a low cost and efficient and better form of energy.

01:01And I think the future is with electrification and decarbonisation of power systems.

01:06So I think the U.S. is making a major mistake in that respect, just in terms of its own industrial future,

01:15let alone in terms of its responsibility to help deal with global climate change.

01:20But that's clearly the direction of travel for this administration, isn't it, and its remaining years in office?

01:28Well, yes.

01:29But I think we knew that.

01:30I mean, this is not news, in a sense.

01:33You know, they have very significantly dismantled the Inflation Reduction Act, and they have moved out of the Paris process.

01:41So, at one level, it's, you know, it's bad news, this particular bit of it.

01:46But it's not unexpected, given the broad, you know, direction of this administration.

01:51I disagree profoundly with them, but they've stated clearly what they intend to do.

01:57Let's talk about China, and in particular, China's power demand, which keeps rising.

02:03Electricity use, I think, is up around 5% year on year or something like that.

02:08How challenging is it going to be for China to meet its climate targets under these conditions and circumstances?

02:17Well, I think it's important, and one of the most important things we'll hear in the next day

02:21is what are China's targets, and I'd love to make a comment on that.

02:27And, by the way, I noticed that you headlined your previous package by drawing attention to the fact

02:32that China, in relation to the WTO in world trade, has basically said we're no longer going to claim

02:40developing country status.

02:42We are going to be treated as a developed country, and I think we've got to have that same approach

02:48in China's climate targets as well.

02:50But, specifically, you ask on electricity system growth.

02:54China is electrifying faster than all other countries in the world.

02:59It has correctly chosen that as the future, and it is developing the technologies of that.

03:04The immediate implication of that, of course, is that it's difficult for the renewables to catch up

03:11with the pace of electricity demand.

03:13For the last five years, China has been installing solar and wind and nuclear faster than anybody else in the world,

03:21but it's still not quite been able to meet all the growth in China's electricity demand.

03:26But I think we are now at the stage where we will turn the corner there.

03:30I would expect, over the next five years, to see the growth of nuclear, wind and solar and hydro bigger than the growth of demand,

03:39and then we will begin to see the reduction in the coal use, the coal power generation, and the reduction in emissions.

03:47Well, let's put some flesh on that.

03:49I mean, what would you expect or perhaps hope to see in China's updated climate targets?

03:54I mean, what would you regard as a credible commitment?

03:59Well, look, here's what I'd love to see.

04:01China, at the moment, says that it will peak by 2030 at the latest, and it'll get to zero by 2060.

04:11And if you simply drew straight lines between those points, the area under that curve is about 260 gigatons.

04:20China is probably going to peak this year, so I would like to see China actually saying we will peak this year or next.

04:28I think China should be aiming to get to a 90% reduction at least by 2050.

04:34I think what should happen in the 2060s is dealing with the very difficult things in agriculture and methane and the other greenhouse gases,

04:42but I think it should aim, and I think it is quite capable of decarbonizing most of its energy building, industry and transport sector by 2050.

04:52And I think it should ideally state a straight line from where it is today to a 90% cut by 2050.

05:00And that would be a sort of 15-18% cut by 2030 and a 35% cut by 2035.

05:08If China said that, it would be revolutionary in terms of our ability to limit climate change.

05:15It would be revolutionary in terms of its impact on other countries across the world.

05:20And I think given China's technological capability, it could deliver that.

05:24Now, what do I expect?

05:25I expect something a little less than that, but that's what I'd love to see, and I hope it will be as close to that as possible.

05:33Well, let's talk about leadership then, because as we've mentioned, US climate leadership looks at least uncertain.

05:39Many looking to Europe and China, of course.

05:43Do you think China is ready to play a stronger leadership role in the global green transition?

05:50Well, look, China is playing a huge leadership role in the development of the technologies to deal with climate change.

06:01It is the leader in solar PV, in batteries, in electric vehicles, in electrolyzers.

06:07And the world should applaud that.

06:10China needs to be more of a leader in terms of emission reduction targets.

06:15And it should be extending its emission reduction efforts from the power sector, where I think we're on a turning point very soon,

06:23to sectors like heavy industry, steel and cement, where China is so important.

06:28So I would see a sort of need for a big deal between Europe and China,

06:34that China, within the context of now accepting that for trade terms, and I believe from climate terms,

06:40China needs to move beyond being a developing country and have the responsibilities of a developed country.

06:46China should accept that.

06:47But Europe should not criticize China for its technological leadership, but embrace it and encourage great Chinese companies,

06:57for instance, to invest in Europe so that, yes, we would want some of the supply chains to be based in Europe.

07:06But if that is done by great Chinese companies investing there.

07:09So I think there's a sort of Europe and China, other countries, of course, are hugely important as well, Brazil, India.

07:17But it has to be China accepting a degree of responsibility and the rest of the world applauding China for their technological leadership

07:25and embracing that rather than rejecting it or trying to put up protectionist barriers against it.

07:32And, dear, good to see you. And thanks so much for coming back on the programme.

07:34Thank you. Thank you.

07:35Lord Turner, Chair of Energy Transitions Commission.

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