The Israeli military said on Wednesday that Hamas has handed over remains believed to be those of a deceased hostage to the Red Cross in Gaza, the latest step forward under the US-brokered ceasefire. FRANCE 24's Yinka Oyetade speaks with Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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00:00This is Apropos. Israel has received the remains of another hostage from Gaza.
00:08It comes after the largest functioning hospital in the Strip.
00:11Said that the bodies of 15 more Palestinians were returned from Israel.
00:16Meanwhile, the United Nations is warning that aid agencies are in a race against time to get food and other supplies into the Strip.
00:23According to the UN's World Food Programme, Israel continues to impede deliveries in spite of a month-long ceasefire.
00:31Many Gazans continue to suffer from acute hunger, as Monty Francis reports.
00:38This soup kitchen in Han Yunus is the only source of food for thousands of displaced Gazans, including a father of nine who is struggling to feed his family.
00:48Life is difficult for us because we don't own anything and we don't have anything to buy food with.
00:55There is no work. Without the soup kitchens here, we couldn't have eaten.
01:00A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas nearly a month ago was meant to make way for large waves of humanitarian aid.
01:07But officials with the UN's World Food Programme say although the amount of aid getting into the territory has increased since the fighting stopped, it's nowhere near what's needed.
01:17Across the rest of Gaza, the quantity of food arriving is still insufficient.
01:23In three and a half weeks since the ceasefire, WFP has brought 20,000 metric tons of food assistance.
01:31That's roughly half what we need to be able to meet the food needs of the people in Gaza.
01:39Israel says it's fulfilling its obligations under the ceasefire agreement, but only two crossings into the enclave are open, limiting the amount of aid trucks that can enter Gaza.
01:50As a result, soup kitchens are the only lifeline for many families.
01:54Every day I come to the soup kitchen here to be able to provide food for my children, because as you can see, they say there's a truce, but it is a sham truce, because the siege is still in place.
02:06Flour is still expensive, and things are just too expensive for us.
02:10Almost all of Gaza's population of 2.3 million has been displaced by the war, and many have lost their homes in Israeli airstrikes.
02:18Humanitarian groups worry the crisis could worsen with winter approaching.
02:25Let's bring in Aaron David Miller. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He joins us now.
02:32Aaron, thank you so much for joining us on the program.
02:35We're hearing so much about how this ceasefire is being tested and how fragile it is.
02:40Do you think it's actually holding up?
02:44I mean, if holding up means the following.
02:47Number one, the large-scale exponential rise of Palestinian deaths in response to large-scale Israeli deployments, artillery strikes, airstrikes, clearly the war has changed.
03:02You don't have the exponential rise of Palestinian deaths on a daily basis, so it's holding in that respect.
03:10Number two, more aid is getting in, but clearly, as the World Food Program and other NGOs attest, not nearly enough.
03:22And finally, on the thing that matters most to the Israelis, other clearly than their security needs, you have all live hostages returned.
03:30And I think, I believe now there are only seven of the hostage, deceased hostage body was supposed to be returned today, tonight.
03:39I think there are only seven hostages that remain, bodies, I mean, five Israeli nationals, and I believe two foreign nationals.
03:48So in that sense, yeah, the ceasefire is holding, but it's like pedaling a bicycle.
03:57I don't mean, I mean, to trivialize, if you don't, if you stop pedaling, you fall.
04:02And that is the case here.
04:03There has to be movement beyond phase one to the additional phases of the Trump peace plan,
04:11if, in fact, we're going to avoid reverting to what we've witnessed over the last few years.
04:17Well, talks are continuing on phase two, and Turkey and several Arab nations are considering contributing to an international force
04:26that would help to secure Gaza's borders with Israel and Egypt.
04:32Also, they would be looking at protecting civilians and humanitarian corridors,
04:36and also training a new Palestinian police force.
04:39Do you think a force like that would actually help to bring peace to the Strip, and would Israel accept it?
04:44I think if you actually got both of the combatants, Hamas and the Israelis, to agree to the deployment
04:55of an international stabilization force, certainly it would help.
05:00You're going to need better governance.
05:04You're going to need to begin the painful process, not just of delivering humanitarian assistance
05:08as winter approaches, but to contemplate what it's going to cost in terms of time, resources,
05:15and effort and organization in order to reconstruct or reconstitute Gaza.
05:20But yeah, the main problem continues to be the fundamental, I think, irreconcilable objectives
05:28of both the current Israeli government and Hamas.
05:31The 20-point plan calls for decommissioning, demilitarization of Hamas's weaponry,
05:39and clearly the objective here, and that's one that the Americans and the Israelis share,
05:45is to make it impossible for Hamas as an organization to have any meaningful role in governing
05:51or even in influencing the politics and the security architecture in Gaza.
05:56That problem, which has existed now for two years, ever since October 7, continues to exist.
06:03No contingent, whether it's Arab, Muslim, or European security forces, are going to deploy
06:10into an area which is still a free fire zone, in which you have Hamas weaponized and in control
06:17of what, 47% of Gaza?
06:19Then you have the Israelis willing to preempt and preempt and preempt the possibility of
06:27future strikes by Hamas.
06:29You've had two major violations of the ceasefire in terms of attacks by Hamas emerging from tunnels
06:36in an area the Israelis now control.
06:39In fact, there is an American proposal on the table to find a way to facilitate the transfer
06:45of those Palestinian fighters in those tunnels to areas that Hamas controls.
06:51The Israelis insist at the same time that there are several Hamas operatives that have been
06:57accused of murdering Israelis.
06:59They want those people either brought to justice, to surrender, or to be killed.
07:05So this is just one sort of glimpse, one window into the complexity of the challenges that remain
07:14to bring an end to the war that you and I would consider literally ending the war.
07:22We're a long way away from that.
07:24Well, one of the key sticking points, as you mentioned, is that demand from Israel that Hamas
07:29disarms.
07:31Hamas is adamant that it will not do that.
07:33Do you see either side compromising on that issue?
07:37I mean, that's really the key.
07:39You know, in Northern Ireland, the decommissioning process took, what, began in 98 with the signing
07:44of the Good Friday Agreement?
07:45You don't have anything like that.
07:48An agreement to power share?
07:51No, it's, I think the major obstacle is Hamas is not going to voluntarily destroy itself.
07:58And while, I mean, I think it's trying to delay the implementation of that second phase.
08:02It could perhaps agree to surrender its large-scale weapons, keeping its weapons.
08:09But the reality is Hamas remains the most preeminent political and security actor in Gaza.
08:15Whether or not you take away its large weapons and even demand its tunnel infrastructure, which
08:21is what, half the length of the New York subway system?
08:25Hamas is going to remain a political actor.
08:27And I think that is one of the major challenges that the Trump plan faces.
08:34Well, let's talk about the scale of rebuilding in the Gaza Strip.
08:4083% of buildings have been destroyed.
08:43Talk to us about how big of a challenge reconstruction is going to be.
08:46I mean, the clearing of rubble, what, 50 million tons of rubble, not to mention the demining process
08:54of ordinance that probably is still alive, not to mention how do you fly the airplane and
09:01build it at the same time?
09:03What do you do with 2 million Gazans who don't have access to potable water, proper sanitation,
09:10enough food, shelter, and medical care while this process of rebuilding is launched?
09:20And who is going to pay for this?
09:22I think the Trump administration's view is that the Gulf Arabs will pay for it, the Emiratis,
09:27the Qataris, and the Saudis, but I don't think they're going to pay for it if, in fact, there's
09:33no long-term prospect that the conflict between Israel and Hamas won't somehow be ameliorated
09:39or ended, so they don't pay for reconstruction that is destroyed.
09:45And that has been the story, the sad, tragic story of Gaza since at least 2007, when Hamas
09:53essentially staged a coup and took over governance of the Strip.
09:59So again, it comes down to, I think, a fundamental question.
10:02Security, governance, better prosperity, and some measure of hope for Palestinians in Gaza
10:11depends on how to reconcile what is now irreconcilable.
10:16Hamas wants to survive and maintain its influence, perhaps with some of its light weapons.
10:21Israel wants to see it ended.
10:24And how you bridge that gap right now, I think I don't have an answer, frankly.
10:30And I think if the people who did have an answer to that question, we would have seen progress,
10:37more progress than we've seen in the last month.
10:39It's going to be a very heavy lift to create more security, more prosperity, and good governance
10:46in Gaza without somehow reconciling what is now, I'm afraid, irreconcilable.
10:55Well, Aaron, I do want to get your thoughts on this yellow line, this controversial yellow
10:59line that Israel has created in the Gaza Strip that cuts Gaza roughly in half.
11:06There are fears that Israel could turn that into a permanent border.
11:10What do you think their reasoning is in creating this area?
11:13And do you think there is a prospect that they could decide to make it a permanent border?
11:20Well, it may become a permanent border if the three questions that we've been discussing
11:26is an answer.
11:28Number one, who or what is going to govern Gaza?
11:30Number two, who or what is going to maintain the security in all of its various dimensions?
11:35And again, who or what is going to reconstruct Gaza and make it livable?
11:40I think the Israelis, the agreement would not have happened without the Trump administration
11:45agreeing to a process of phase withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces.
11:50If you take a look at the yellow line, it runs the entire length of the Gaza Strip.
11:54I was looking at a map today, anywhere from two kilometers in the north to six kilometers
12:00of width in the Rafa area.
12:04And I think the Israelis clearly are going to hold on that line until they are persuaded
12:12that an international stabilization force can somehow begin to secure the areas from which
12:19they've withdrawn.
12:20That, again, is a function, I'm afraid everything seems to me, to be a derivative of one major
12:27problem, and that is the differing end states that both Hamas, on one hand, the most significant
12:34Palestinian political actor in Gaza, has been since October 7th and remains so to this day
12:42as we begin the three-year period since the beginning of this war.
12:48And Israel's notion, the current Israeli prime minister wants total victory, that means not
12:54just the decimation and hollowing out and weakening of Hamas, it means its destruction in the
13:00sense that its military organization is dismantled, its remains of its top leadership seek exile
13:08from Gaza somewhere else.
13:11And frankly, right now, I don't see any way to resolve that.
13:14So in short answer to your question, the yellow line, which leaves the Israelis in control of
13:20what, 53% of Gaza, with, I suspect, the right, which they will demand to preempt and prevent
13:27hostile action coming out of Gaza, means while we're not going to witness, I think the war
13:34as we've witnessed it over the last two years is over.
13:39But that doesn't mean the fighting in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has somehow ended.
13:44To the great detriment of 2 million Palestinians in Gaza, civilians who are literally, there's
13:52this terrible African proverb, when elephants fight, only the grass dies.
13:58And I'm afraid, tragically, sadly, that that encapsulates the state and fate of the 2 million
14:07Palestinian civilians who have suffered so over the course of the last two years.
14:12Gaza was no paradise before October 7, to be sure, for any number of reasons.
14:21So again, I think it requires a degree of leadership.
14:26And I'm not sure we have that leadership.
14:29Aaron David Miller, thank you so much for joining us on the program.
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