China is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases but it is also spearheading a clean energy revolution, with more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined. Speaking on FRANCE 24, Chris Aylett, Research Fellow in the Environment and Society Centre at Chatham House, says that China is focusing on "rolling out the solutions and making the changes we need" and is becoming, albeit reluctantly, the leader in the fight against emissions.
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00:07The leaders of China, India and the United States, responsible for nearly half of global emissions, are not in attendance.
00:15President Xi Jinping won't be there, but China is sending a large delegation.
00:19As the world's biggest polluter, China's role remains critical.
00:23The country is also leading the clean energy push, installing more renewables and rolling out more electric vehicles than any other country.
00:32The key question now is, can China produce enough green technology to power its own transition and help the world reach net zero?
00:40Selena Sykes has more.
00:43On hills, in fields or in the desert.
00:48In China, solar panels are as far as the eye can see.
00:51Two years ago, there was nothing here but desert.
00:56We've installed six million solar panels, two million of them in less than six months.
01:02We can produce 500 million kilowatt hours, enough to power four and a half million homes for a whole year.
01:08China is the world's biggest emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gases, but is also spearheading a clean energy revolution.
01:16Beijing is installing more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined.
01:21And is putting more electric cars on its roads than any other country.
01:26Almost half of new cars were electric battery-powered or plug-in hybrids last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
01:33A pivot to cleaner alternatives at home and also abroad, as China's energy strategy is about more than saving the planet.
01:41On the surface, it is an environmental and climate issue, but in reality, it is closely related to economic development, industrial investment, international trade, and deployment of new markets and technologies.
01:55In 2024, China manufactured 92% of the world's solar modules and 82% of wind turbines, according to think tank Bruegel, while it accounts for over 70% of global production in the electric vehicle market.
02:10Around the world, China is using clean energy cloud to build or expand political and economic relationships.
02:17Since 2023, Chinese companies have announced $168 billion in foreign investments in clean energy, according to Climate Energy Finance.
02:26A domination in clean energy industries that is crucial to the world's green transition.
02:32For the first time, China has committed to reducing its emissions by 7-10% by 2035.
02:39A welcome development from the world's biggest emitter.
02:42But experts say greater cuts need to be made if the planet is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or even well below 2 degrees Celsius.
02:50We're going to talk more on this now with Chris Eilert, who is a research fellow in the Environment and Society Centre at Chatham House.
03:01Chris, thank you so much for joining us on the programme. Thank you for your time.
03:05So, as we were hearing there, China is very much becoming a world leader in green energy.
03:10Any idea from you why Xi Jinping is not going to be attending COP30?
03:15It's a good question. I would say that political sort of significance of attending summits like COP30 is always, to an extent, relative.
03:30And you mentioned China's NDC commitments of 7-10%.
03:34As you also say, many people thought that was really nowhere near enough.
03:39And actually, that China is likely to do a lot more.
03:42And the analysis really is that when you've got the world's biggest historical emitter, the United States, having really backed out,
03:50China really is in a position where it can do an amount, continue on its path, make its commitments, keep calm and carry on, as we might say, in the UK.
04:01And it will still be seen in a really, really positive light.
04:05It surprised me slightly that President Xi didn't go to COP.
04:08It would have been nice, but I don't think it necessarily has a great deal of symbolism.
04:14China is quite clearly very committed to tackling climate change and the green transition for reasons,
04:20including avoiding its own climate vulnerabilities, but also economic, strategic, as mentioned,
04:27and also energy security, which is that China, as an importer of fossil fuels, is very keen to reduce its reliance.
04:34And that's been one of the driving forces behind its clean tech revolution, I hope.
04:39Well, as we've been mentioning, China is very much leading in this area's home to the world's half of the world's solar,
04:47half of the world's wind power, half of the world's electric cars.
04:51Describe to our audience just how much of a role China is playing in the world's climate trajectory now.
04:57It's impossible to overstate it.
05:02It's absolutely gigantic.
05:04As is well known, China is the world's largest emitter, so accounting for around a third of global emissions,
05:10quite significantly more than the second largest current emitter, which is the United States.
05:14It's on around sort of 10 to 12 percent.
05:16So that means the extent to which China brings its emissions down and how fast has a really material impact on the extent of climate change
05:27that we're likely to see in the in the coming years, decades and even centuries to a certain extent.
05:34So there's that aspect, the extent to which they bring their own emissions down.
05:37Then there is the fact that it has really rolled out this sort of clean tech manufacturing behemoth at home to the extent that it's able to supply abroad at really, really low cost.
05:51And what we're seeing is countries around the world taking China up on its offer of like cheap solar panels in particular,
05:58but also batteries and increasingly electric vehicles.
06:01Not always because they're intending to meet their climate goals or sometimes that is a, you know, obviously a nice kind of side effect.
06:08But in the case of solar panels and batteries, it's for energy security.
06:11It's basically to sort of displace fossil fuels in their mix, particularly if they're having to import from abroad.
06:17In the case of large swathes of Africa, it's simply energy access.
06:21It's a very cheap and quick and easy way basically to get people connected.
06:24And, yeah, I think from those two dimensions, basically the fact that China is the world's largest emitter,
06:34but it's also the world's largest sort of supplier of the solutions, as it were.
06:40It's really a crucial part of the fight against climate change.
06:48And in my view, it's important that we account for that and we work with China to tackle this common challenge.
06:56Well, Chris, there is a sense that China is very much stepping into the void left by the US.
07:01And many are looking at this dynamic and argue that this shouldn't be the case because it allows the US to escape its responsibility as the world's biggest historical emitter.
07:12What's your view on that?
07:16I think, well, yes, basically it's really shocking that the US is able to do this,
07:26to have this historical responsibility and to basically say we are washing our hands of it and in fact doing a little more than washing their hands of it.
07:33They are also being deliberately disruptive.
07:35We saw this at the International Maritime Organization just a few weeks ago where they were trying to pass a new deal on decarbonizing shipping.
07:43And that was basically disrupted and taken off the agenda by the United States in quite an undiplomatic way, according to reports.
07:52There are also obviously Donald Trump is very keen to sell American fossil fuels and has been kind of striking quite stringent deals with Japan and the European Union to purchase lots and lots of American fossil fuels.
08:09So the US has really kind of flipped.
08:12And in the past, the US has been a major player in climate diplomacy and has been responsible along with China as well for some impressive achievements.
08:20But now, yeah, it is up to other countries, not just China, basically, to come together and basically work on this problem.
08:30And what's interesting now is it's not necessarily about kind of setting targets, setting the direction of travel and negotiating.
08:38It's really about sort of getting down to it and making sure that we do roll out the solutions, make the changes we need, implement the policies.
08:46And I think that's something that China has really focused on for a long time.
08:52It feels like it wants to set its targets as it did with its dual carbon production targets back in 2021 and then pursue action to put them into place.
09:22And there's actually quite a lot of interesting, positive things going on in that regard.
09:27But, yeah, the sort of mantle of leadership is a tricky one, because in the sort of UNFCCC COP framework, China is still classified as a developing country.
09:36And the idea that it comes with a slightly different set of responsibilities than the developed countries that have contributed more to the problems.
09:42There's always been, from the Chinese side, a reluctance to sort of say we're leaders in this.
09:48But I think de facto with what they're doing on clean energy and some of their sort of policy frameworks and so on, they are becoming a type of leader.
09:57And certainly other countries are looking towards them for leadership and for signs of hope in quite a bleak situation otherwise.
10:05It is a weird dynamic because while China is making this rapid buildup of renewable energy, its coal sector has also seen a huge surge in investment over the past two years to the highest level in a decade.
10:20The country still has a long way to go, it seems.
10:25That's absolutely right.
10:27The continued reliance on coal and the, you know, continued building of new coal-fired power plants is a concern.
10:35In the 15 five-year plan, which covers the period 2026 to 2030, there is a commitment to gradually reduce the amounts of coal in China's energy mix.
10:47But there's not a lot of clarity around how that's going to be done.
10:51And obviously there is concern about the fact that once you sort of build new power stations, then there's some sort of incentive and imperative to use them.
10:59I would say that there is a, what you tend to find in China compared to other countries is the, what's called the capacity factor, basically the extent to which a coal-fired power plant or another generator is used, is actually pretty low.
11:13So there's, you could build out coal-fired power plants, but if they're not actually used that often, you're not emitting as much as you otherwise would be.
11:21And there's certainly a overarching concern in China about energy security, I mean, basically sort of keeping the lights on.
11:27So part of that build out of coal has been to, you know, make absolutely sure that while they're building the new system, which is going to be based on renewables and batteries, they can still keep the electricity flowing.
11:38So it is a bit of a nuanced situation, but nevertheless, yeah, I think I and many other sort of watchers would be, are hoping to see signs of China's coal consumption starting to fall in the coming years.
11:53Well, we hope that that will happen.
11:54Chris, thank you so much for giving us your analysis on this topic.
11:57It's great to have you on the programme today.
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