00:00Ohio State down to 18 and a half as a favorite in the total, Joe, 44 and a half.
00:06Why is that?
00:07Ohio State's defense show been phenomenal.
00:10Yeah, absolutely.
00:11They're only giving up five points per game, Donnie.
00:13I mean, unbelievable matchup led by that front seven.
00:17Matt Patricia's done a fantastic job.
00:19Number one ranked third down defense in all FBS holding opposing offenses to 21%.
00:25It's going to be very difficult to run on that defense today.
00:28And that's been the M.O. and success of Penn State.
00:31Now, from the series perspective, it's been all Ohio State.
00:36They've won eight straight in the series.
00:38The last four by an average margin of victory of 9.2 points per game.
00:42Picked up this win last year in Happy Valley.
00:44They won it by seven points after trailing 10 to nothing in the first half.
00:49This team is going to expose Penn State today.
00:52Now, what are you going to get out of Penn State?
00:54Interim staff, Jim Knowles comes back.
00:56The former defense coordinator that led that team to a national championship.
01:00The problem that I have is what is the identity of Penn State in this ballgame?
01:05You're going to need some chunk plays to throw.
01:08They're only averaging 185 passing yards per game.
01:12Can they extend plays on third down?
01:14I don't think they can.
01:15I lean Ohio State.
01:16I'm not going to bet it.
01:17Minus the 18.5.
01:18I'll just say the last time that we saw 20.5s in the market was back in 2019.
01:24That was the week after Penn State lost the eight-overtime game to Illinois.
01:28They came back with a good effort, but they didn't win it.
01:31They lost it 28-17.
01:33Got the cover.
01:34So, Penn State loses these games typically, but covers the big spreads.
01:38Not in this matchup.
01:39I think Ohio State rolls.
01:41I'll tell you what's crazy.
01:42You look at the Ohio State schedule, Joe, and you say to yourself,
01:44what has that defense actually done?
01:46Only one game this year, a team has reached double digits on them,
01:49and that was Illinois 34-16 in that loss.
01:51The other games, Texas 7 points, Grambling 0, Ohio 9, Washington 6,
01:57Minnesota 3, Wisconsin 0 last week.
02:00And also understand this.
02:01Two out of the past three games, Joe, Julian Sane 326 in the air against Minnesota
02:05and 393 in the air last week alone against Wisconsin.
02:10Everything is clicking on all cylinders, and you're right about it.
02:12If you are Penn State, you're not heading into this game going,
02:14you know what's going to be fun, Joe?
02:15Let's get into a shootout with Ohio State.
02:17You can't shoot it out against that defense.
02:19You're going to have to ground and pound and wind that clock here,
02:21which is why that total is listed at so low.
02:23Now, before, you know, James Franklin gets fired and Drew Aller gets injured,
02:27that offense was really struggling anyway.
02:29Last week, 25-24 loss to Iowa, but they have been competitive in their scores, Joe.
02:33So, we look at that game itself.
02:35Three touchdowns, let's call it, as an advantage here to Ohio State.
02:38I actually think they cover it today, Joe.
02:40I do.
02:40Yeah, I mean, here, again, when I look at the football matchup, Donnie,
02:44and you want to see the difference this year, just statistically,
02:47of Penn State versus last year, right?
02:50So, last year, they averaged close to 200 rushing.
02:53They were averaging like right around 202 per game.
02:56They're only down in the rushing attack about 40 yards, 169 rushing yards per game, right?
03:02You look at the front seven last year.
03:04They're dominant with Tom Allen at the defensive coordinator.
03:08They only allowed 101 rushing yards per game.
03:11They're coming to this matchup with Jim Knowles, giving up close to $1.60 on the ground.
03:15So, they're getting exposed.
03:17And when you look at Julian Sane in this offense for Ohio State now,
03:21they're starting to hit stride.
03:23Julian Sane is under the radar because of all the other quarterbacks in FBS,
03:27like Mendoza and like Ty Simpson.
03:29But this offense is averaging 279 passing yards per game.
03:34They're running the football with Bo Jackson and C.J. Donaldson for over 170 yards per game.
03:40They're balanced.
03:41They're converting on third downs.
03:43And if you say, okay, if Penn State can't throw the football with Ethan Gruckenmeyer, right,
03:48who he threw for one touchdown, two interceptions, and has only completed 59%,
03:54they're going to run the football.
03:56Okay, great.
03:57Ohio State over the last six games of the regular season right now is holding opposing offenses to 72 rushing yards per game.
04:05So, if you can't run the football, that means long third downs, and that's a long day for Penn State.
04:11And I'll just say this.
04:12The M.O. of Penn State, they have never, never had an elite quarterback and elite wide receivers.
04:19And, unfortunately, that's why they won't win a Big Ten championship this year
04:22and might not for the next four-ish seasons.
04:25Being one-dimensional against Ohio State is going to get you busted out because you take a look.
04:30Drew Aller, again, he's not going to play in this game, but the high for Penn State,
04:33even including Gruckenmeyer last week, is 217 in the air.
04:36You can't throw for 150 yards against Ohio State and say we're going to ground and pound it.
04:39Now, I do think the M.O. is if we want to keep it close, it's Katron Allen.
04:42I like his rushing prop to the over today.
04:45But understand this.
04:46If that offensive passing game doesn't work and Ohio State understands it, it's not working,
04:49they are just going to sink their teeth into this offense, and it's going to go backwards.
04:52Yeah, and think about last year.
04:54They start out with a guns a-blazing.
04:56They get the turnover.
04:57They're up 10-0 at home.
04:58And Drew Aller still last year only threw for 120.
05:02So what is this staff going to do?
05:03You have to break tendency in order to cover this line.
05:07You cannot be one-dimensional.
05:09Unfortunately, I haven't seen it in Penn State.
05:11Big Ten play, Joe.
05:12Lost by 6-5, 1-1.
05:15Can they be competitive today?
05:16We'll find out.
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