00:00We've been keeping an eye, a closed watch on the U.S.-China trade deal.
00:05I mean, is that a game changer?
00:07Well, it is potentially a game changer.
00:10Of course, you're speaking with someone who's no expert on foreign affairs.
00:15But I think we all think...
00:16But in terms of the impact on investor sentiment...
00:18Well, it can have a profound impact. I just don't know what.
00:22Well, we've been seeing a lot of posturing.
00:25President Trump talking about, you know, a deal is coming.
00:27He's looking for a complete deal.
00:30How much of that has already been priced in?
00:31I mean, we've seen such a run-up in markets already.
00:34Well, we know that there are developments.
00:38We know the market rises.
00:40We can't attribute what percentage of the market rise.
00:43But we've been in a very optimistic environment for the last 36 months.
00:48And certainly the idea that President Trump can do some positive things on the world stage is part of that.
00:56But I think that nobody knows what an agreement would look like, the probability that it will be reached, the probability that it will be documented, the probability that it will stuck to, what the impact will be.
01:09You know, everybody in our business loves to have forecasts, but they should question the expertise of the forecaster and always wonder about the probability that it's right or wrong.
01:21Look, we don't invest on macro.
01:25We're not going to change our posture because we do or don't believe that President Trump is going to make a deal with shit.
01:31So you're investing based on – and based on that, where are you putting your money?
01:34Has anything changed?
01:36We're what's called bottom-up investors.
01:38We're mostly credit investors.
01:40So only one thing matters.
01:42If we lend the company money, will they pay us back and the promised interest?
01:46And that is not done with regard to the outlook for trade relations, the outlook for what the Fed is going to do yesterday or tomorrow on rates.
02:01It's a different brand of investing, bottom-up.
02:03Our relations between the U.S. and China has been a key question mark for the market.
02:09Surely a step in the right direction would give people more appetite, more to be risked on.
02:15That's a fair assumption.
02:19Well, I mean, if we could attain a mutually beneficial –
02:25Howard, hang tight because we have developments in Korea.
02:31Yvonne, go ahead.
02:33Yep, we're taking a look at live pictures out of Busan now.
02:37The two leaders just had that first handshake.
02:40These two obviously have not seen each other for a few years now.
02:44I believe 2019 was the last time they met.
02:46So this is the first meeting since President Trump returned to the White House for that second term.
02:52And we talk about how Trade War 1.0 is very different from Trade War 2.0 when it comes to these two nations now.
02:59Because right now there's so much more at stake and China seems to be coming through with much more, I guess you could say, leverage that they've been able to use negotiating tools like soybeans, like rare earths in this latest salvo of this trade war.
03:14So there you go, the two men hunkering down, heading into that room right now.
03:19You're seeing a flurry of reporters.
03:21And David, I think it was quite telling.
03:24It seemed to be a pretty friendly handshake there.
03:26Just look at those live pictures.
03:27It was, it was.
03:30And I think some of the comments that came through, I'm not sure if the audio, we were actually able to take the audio so our viewers could actually hear them.
03:40Some of the comments coming through out of the U.S. president specifically, he looked to be the one talking in that, again, I'm still trying to get my, wrapping my head around that image we just saw.
03:52Like, my brain is just not used to seeing the two presidents that close in one location.
03:58Donald Trump says that Xi Jinping is a tough negotiator, that he could sign a trade deal today.
04:04They have a great relationship and that they have just finished, of course, that initial handshake, that photo op.
04:12And in case you're joining us quite literally just now, they actually just slipped in towards the back of the room to enter this bilateral meeting,
04:21which I imagine should be, should be starting any, any moment now.
04:26And I promise you, we'll get you more pictures and updates coming through once we have more information from that historic meeting taking place there in Busan.
04:33From Korea, we'll take you straight back now to Singapore, where Haslinda Amin, of course, our inside co-anchor, is with her guest.
04:40Has, apologies for interrupting there, your conversation with Howard Marks.
04:43Well, that's right.
04:43And Howard, and Howard, you know, we have the two leaders shaking hands.
04:48Lots of things on the table, fentanyl, soybeans, including black whale chips as well.
04:53And we've seen how those, you know, AI stocks have been rallying in a massive way.
05:00It's not a bubble, you say.
05:01Well, I mean, it's, it's, I'm not saying that it hasn't been tinged with optimism.
05:08We've been in a very strong market.
05:09This has been the tentpole of the optimism.
05:11Nobody would say that these stocks haven't moved or that they're cheap.
05:17The question is, do they have more left?
05:19It's extremely interesting to be sitting in your studio and doing this in real time while this may be coming to fruition.
05:25But, you know, if there is a positive deal, and I assume that there will be some deal announced, that's why they're standing around smiling at each other.
05:34Otherwise, they wouldn't be.
05:37It's not like it's going to change the investment environment from hostile to positive.
05:42It's not like it's going to turn people from pessimistic to optimism.
05:46It's already been a very positive environment, tinged with great optimism.
05:50And this may add to it a little bit.
05:52But, you know, we should look at the fine print and figure out, you know, whether it's really mutually beneficial and whether we think it can endure and whether it can solve the problems that we have.
06:05But regardless of the details, the optics are positive.
06:08That gives the AI rally yet another leg up.
06:12Yes, but I try not to care too much about the optics.
06:15What I care about is the substance.
06:17And, you know, will this make companies better companies?
06:20Will this enhance their probability of paying their debts?
06:23Will this add to the profitability of companies?
06:29That's a lot different from the optics of two world leaders shaking hands.
06:35So would you be an investor in open AI?
06:39It talks about filing next year.
06:41It talks about an IPO in 27.
06:43This is a company that's still not making money.
06:46Well, and that, what you just said, captures the whole question today.
06:52Now you asked what I.
06:53Oaktree is a credit investor.
06:55Yeah.
06:55We don't.
06:56And things like open AI are not financed with loans largely because they're not bankable.
07:03They don't make money.
07:03So they can't borrow money.
07:05If people buy pieces of the company in the hope that those pieces will become much more valued.
07:10But as you asked earlier, Howard, I'm sorry, we have delivered there more developments in Korea.
Be the first to comment