00:00Let me start on this theme of rising loan provisions. I don't know what you'll be able to tell us about this one specific credit that you're referencing.
00:07Maybe not very much, but perhaps you can tell us what industry it falls into or anything that will help us understand whether this ties into our wider concerns about private credit or the French economy.
00:16What more can you tell us there?
00:19Yeah, listen, if you look at the cost of risk, actually, it is stable compared to last year.
00:23Last year, we had a ride back. So we clock in at 39 basis points, which is below our average of the cycle of 40 basis points.
00:31So intrinsically, there is nothing much to say. If you look at CIB, the cost of risk is basically stable.
00:37And yes, we have one specific file that weighs on it. But still, CIB is stable compared to a year ago.
00:44And listen, we don't give any color on names on clients, but it is just one file that we have been impacted.
00:50And it is it is not a usual suspect. It is just in the sphere of payments.
00:57OK. OK, Lars, thank you for that detail that you are able to provide.
01:01In terms of the wider concerns around private credit, then, and this is something that the market is very concerned about, of course.
01:07We see this phenomenon and I know that you are part of this phenomenon.
01:10Banks increasingly lending to the lenders, by which I mean private market players.
01:15And does that mean that you then have reduced transparency around who the end debtor is?
01:22Or do you have just as much visibility around around the lending that you're doing as you did say 10 years ago?
01:28Yeah. And I can share the point of view of BNP Paribas.
01:32So what we basically see is we do make sure to have the insights, to have the view on collateral as we typically do.
01:38So from the point of view of BNP Paribas, I'm not worried.
01:41That does not mean I can extrapolate that to the wider market.
01:45But for us, that's basically the stance and we feel comfortable with the exposures we have.
01:51Well, Lars, it's Creedy in London.
01:53I want to stick with that theme of credit.
01:54And I hear you on the broader scheme of things.
01:56Bloomberg had the pleasure of speaking to your colleague, Isabel Samama, over in September.
02:00This is a really interesting time for BNP, given the takeover with Axis IM and the alt business there.
02:07But she had made the point that the mix of private capital and insurance could ultimately generate some risk.
02:13Do you share that view?
02:14Is this a risky partnership?
02:17Again, it all boils down on if you stick to the views that you have, the collateralization and the elements that I have.
02:23But if I can rebound on you met Isabel, and it's basically, if you look back, Isabel basically joined BNP Paribas with the AXA IM integration, which is off to a great start.
02:34If you look at it, blending those two teams, blending those two people, blending those two products, blending those distribution channels, it really allows us to really transform that activity.
02:44And it leads to a return on equity of 22% by 2029.
02:48So from that point of view, we're very pleased that that overall activity, that we can add it in the support to all of our customers.
02:56And again, if you look at it, we stick to all the collateralizations that we have, so we feel comfortable on our exposures.
03:06Understood.
03:06Lars, let's talk about another risk potential.
03:08In the last 24 hours, it looks like the French government has actually passed some sort of amendment suggesting that there will actually be more tax on corporations like yourselves coming into the next year.
03:20There's also, of course, the political uncertainty that hangs over all French companies.
03:24Just walk us through whether that's showing up in some of your loan loss provisions, some of your outlook, and ultimately how your customers are approaching you.
03:31Yes, well, if you look at overall, so indeed the government is hiring out a budget, which is what is needed.
03:37And that budget should, on one hand, not be extreme, and on the other hand, not be totally lazy neither.
03:44So it has to find the right middle of the road.
03:46Now, the thing is, what does that then mean for the economy?
03:49If you look at the overall output for France, the outlook is still that GDP will go up.
03:53Yes, a tad slower, because in particular, some companies are in wait and see.
03:57However, if we look at the pipeline of corporates, the pipelines are very solid.
04:02It is just a little bit of a wait and see on what we have.
04:05And if you look at that the underlying is fine, look at our evolutions.
04:09If you look at our French retail activities, results are up.
04:12If you look at our cost of risk, cost of risk is basically stable in France.
04:16It's at 15, 1.5 basis points over outstanding.
04:19So from that point of view, it's a bit of a wait and see, but the pipeline is there and the growth is continuing.
04:26Lars, this guy, can I just come back to the statement you made about this one credit just a couple of minutes ago?
04:35You talked about the fact that it was not a usual suspect in a theme of payments.
04:41When you say payments, what do you mean?
04:44Listen, I cannot say more.
04:45The only thing what I wanted to say, there are usual suspects which are floating around,
04:50and that is the kind of activities we're not into it.
04:52So it is basically global markets who is working with its interfaces.
04:56And from time to time, every so many years, something goes wrong.
05:00And that's basically what it is.
05:03You talked in the statement this morning about the Sudan jury verdict being, quote, fundamentally flawed.
05:09Is that going to turn into a class action lawsuit?
05:12Can you tell me whether or not that is going to happen, yes or no?
05:14Listen, we are very confident that it is an individual case-by-case evaluation.
05:22And so we will find the notice of appeal as soon as possible.
05:26And the appeal will follow the usual procedures of the court.
05:29And so we feel very comfortable in the elements.
05:32We've given an update, a synthesis of what our view is this morning.
05:36And that's basically where we stand.
05:37OK, so you are confident that it is not going to turn into, because investors want to know, Lars,
05:44this is a really big deal in terms of your numbers.
05:47Are you confident that it is not going to turn into a class action lawsuit?
05:51Listen, any attempt to extrapolate these kind of individual cases is wrong.
05:57And the numbers that come from that are wrong.
05:59So that is basically what we have to say about this.
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