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00:00Monday night football, Joe.
00:02How about this spread line?
00:03The Commanders headed the town without their starting quarterback in Jaden Daniels.
00:06And by the way, teams that didn't have their starting quarterbacks yesterday,
00:08some of those backup options were not that good.
00:12Marcus Mariota gets to start against Patrick Mahomes.
00:14But how about this line, Joe?
00:1511.5, 10.5s, and 11s across the board, depending on where you're shopping at.
00:19And the total of 47.5 to 48.5, depending on where you're looking.
00:23And also, if you can just get those binoculars out there, Joe,
00:26and take a look across that horizon, you know what I see?
00:30Kansas City and Buffalo.
00:32What's your spread line for this one tonight, though, Joe?
00:35Well, it's funny.
00:36We know that, obviously, Mariota is going to be under center.
00:40But unlike Jaden Daniels, Mariota is going to have at his disposal Terry McLaurin
00:46and Deebo Samuel, both playing here tonight.
00:49And we know Cliff Kingsbury is creative, right?
00:52He's a creative OC here.
00:54And Mariota has already shown to be a pretty good backup here,
00:59more than capable of putting up some points.
01:01So the question you have to ask is, this original look ahead line was 5.5, Donnie.
01:06You know, not knowing who was playing or who's not playing,
01:09this thing got as high as 12.5 during the week.
01:11It has settled in right around 11 here.
01:14The total, ironically, was 51.5.
01:17And we've seen that come down to 48.
01:20So something has got to give here.
01:22I don't often like Kansas City covering big numbers,
01:26although they have already once this season.
01:30This is going to be interesting to see.
01:31Where does the late money come in, Donnie?
01:34Let's get busy.
01:34It's Monday night football.
01:36What a way to end the week.
01:37And by the way, it would have been.
01:38When the NFL was coming up with their schedules, what, last March, April,
01:41sometime in that frame?
01:42I'm like, you know what?
01:43What an awesome Monday night football game this is going to be.
01:45The Kansas City Chiefs probably still in control of the AFC West,
01:48but we're going to bring out the Washington Commanders
01:50and their exciting second-year quarterback in Jaden Daniels
01:53on a team that made it all the way through
01:56to the NFC Championship game last year.
01:58Not the case this year.
01:59Washington just looking to try to be a 500-football team
02:02without their starting quarterback.
02:03But they are going to get some help back tonight, Joe,
02:05with some wide receivers.
02:06But if you can't get the football to those wide receivers,
02:09does it even matter?
02:10A double-digit favorite tonight for the Kansas City Chiefs,
02:13sitting between 11-1⁄2 and 10-1⁄2,
02:15depending on where you're shopping at,
02:16and the total of 47-1⁄2 to 48-1⁄2.
02:19It looks like it's a possibility of an easy win for the Kansas City Chiefs.
02:24Is that the case in your mind tonight
02:25as we take a look at this game's projections?
02:28No.
02:29I mean, listen, as good as Kansas City has looked, which is great,
02:33you know, we've seen this story before.
02:35They have not been great.
02:37And Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have not been great covering these kinds
02:41of double-digit favorite spreads at Arrowhead, Donnie.
02:46And I'll tell you why.
02:47It's because they usually boat race teams early and take their foot off the gas
02:52and then go, you know, 14 plays in the second half, 13 plays,
02:56and they just milk the clock here.
02:59I mean, they have no intention of going into some sort of wild shootout here.
03:04They are going to score early.
03:06They're going to score often.
03:07And then at the end, Donnie, they're not going to keep their foot on the gas.
03:10We know this when Andy Reid and Mahomes.
03:13So I'd be very reluctant to look anywhere at laying this number,
03:18giving out bad Washington's defense is.
03:20Don't get me wrong, and they're terrible.
03:22But with the weapons back, I think there should be a ton of points,
03:25way more than 47-1⁄2 points in this game here tonight.
03:28Yeah, because we're taking a look at an offense, too,
03:31when you sort of break it down, the Kansas City Chiefs.
03:33You can't use their full season in totality
03:35because they didn't have all their weapons that would be available.
03:38So you take a look at the past couple games, right?
03:40You lose to the Jaguars, but you put up 28 points.
03:42Then you get your top wide receivers back, 30 points against the Lions here,
03:4631 points for the Raiders.
03:47And by the way, if you're watching that Raiders game,
03:49it could have been 60 points in that game.
03:51They just basically took their foot off the gas pedal in the second half
03:53because the Raiders brought nothing to the table.
03:55And maybe that's the case, where you're looking at Kansas City
03:58firing on all cylinders on offense with Rasheed Rice back,
04:01your top three wideouts, getting the running game going.
04:03Patrick Mahomes looks great.
04:04But then that defense under Steve Spagnuolo
04:06also starting to sink its teeth into.
04:08Holding the Lions to 17 points, that's pretty good.
04:11Shutting out the Raiders, even though how bad they are,
04:13a shutout in the NFL, that's an impressive performance.
04:15And then you roll the dice tonight in that football game.
04:17But if we are focused, Joe, on the quarterback position,
04:20Patrick Mahomes, 274-1⁄2 passing yards is his prop.
04:24Marcus Mariota is 195-1⁄2.
04:27What always catches my attention,
04:28usually the baseline for quarterbacks' touchdown passes is 1-1⁄2.
04:32Could be plus money, or maybe minus 130, minus 140, minus 150s, and minus 160s
04:37if you're a heavily favored guy.
04:39But now we take a look at Patrick Mahomes, like,
04:41we don't even want to give you that opportunity.
04:432-1⁄2, and yes, it's a plus 120.
04:45But if you ask me tonight, Donnie,
04:47does Patrick Mahomes throw two touchdown passes?
04:49Probably almost guarantee that.
04:50Three sometimes is just a bridge a little bit too far for me to buy into.
04:55How do we look at the quarterback props tonight, Joe, from your perspective?
04:59Yeah, so listen, I like him early.
05:02And I like Mahomes and company to be able to get him done.
05:06I think that the second half would worry me if you're looking at the over for Mahomes,
05:11simply because this defense of Washington, Donnie,
05:14they can't tackle.
05:16They can't stop anybody.
05:17I think they're going to have plenty of success rushing the ball in this game.
05:22So I would tend to look at the running backs more than anything else here for Kansas City,
05:26because they're not going to drop Mahomes back 40 times in this game.
05:30It makes absolutely no sense if they can't stop anybody.
05:33And I don't think Washington's defense can.
05:35So I would lean towards the under in Mahomes' situation.
05:40And I think Mariota is going to have no choice.
05:42But to have to drop back and play catch up the whole game,
05:45he's the guy I would look towards the over.
05:46So that's tough to do, too, because, again, and also you can be shell-shocked from yesterday.
05:51Hey, Kirk Cousins, veteran guy, he was pathetic.
05:54And he was absolutely pathetic.
05:57Like, there were some old guys at quarterback yesterday that now make you look and say another older guy.
06:02I mean, not as old maybe as Kirk Cousins, but still older, Marcus Mariota.
06:05We don't know what we're going to get out of that.
06:06And you're playing in a hostile environment on a Monday night football game
06:09and also going up against the Steve Spagnuolo defense.
06:11But let's look at the guys that are expected to score touchdowns.
06:14Not crazy pricing, which you like.
06:16Travis Kelsey, minus 110 price.
06:18He's actually the favorite in the clubhouse in the odds market for the most juice on a player to score.
06:22Rasheed Rice, minus 105.
06:23Xavier Worthy, plus 160.
06:25And then you see Ja'Cory Krosky-Meritt there, the first guy to pop up for the Commanders at that plus 190 price.
06:30Pacheco, 2-1.
06:31Where do our eyes go, Joe, tonight on the touchdown market between Washington and Kansas City?
06:37Yeah, well, Kelsey definitely will have my vote there, simply, Donnie, because.
06:45Ah, look at how angry Joe got at that point right now.
06:47His eyes were going right to Kelsey and then dropped out because it was how upsetting that was.
06:52But let's understand the task at hand here as we take a look at.
06:54Like, the rushing props here that we get into as well.
06:58Isaiah Pacheco, 49-1.
07:00Ja'Cory Krosky-Meritt, 47-1.
07:03Patrick Mahomes, 23-1.
07:04Marcus Mariota, 28-1.
07:06And Debo Samuel, 4-1.
07:08Now, understand this.
07:09Like, I look at Pacheco.
07:1149-1 probably should be a solid number.
07:13Why?
07:13The game flow.
07:14They're double-digit favorites.
07:15You're looking at the end of the game where maybe Kansas City isn't throwing the football
07:18and looking just to establish that running game and run the clock out.
07:21That's why it makes some sense.
07:22So, Joe, we're talking about rushing props at this point here.
07:25But I want to get back to your touchdown market.
07:27You were so heavy on Kelsey that, you know what?
07:30The internet was like, yeah, we don't need to hear this energy anymore.
07:33Yeah, yeah.
07:33The power just wasn't cooperating there, Donnie.
07:36But I'll tell you this.
07:39Kelsey, I like in the end zone because, let's face it, those linebackers of Washington can't cover anybody.
07:45And we know in the red zone where Mahomes is going to look here.
07:49But the running back, again, I think Pacheco is live in this game because I think he's going to have plenty of chances in the second half to get his hands on the ball and have opportunities inside the 20.
08:00So, I would look at both of those guys.
08:03And listen, if the game is out of hand in the second half, can we count on Rice?
08:09Can we count on Worthy?
08:10Are they really going to be taking all of these crazy shots downfield?
08:14I would keep it with the short yardage guys.
08:16I think they have the best shot of getting in the end zone tonight.
08:19You take a look at the rushing props, too, as I was talking about, Joe.
08:22Like, Isaiah Pacheco is 49 and a half because the game script is correct.
08:25Kansas City is going to have a lead and maybe bleeding the clock late in the second half.
08:29But I always get intrigued by these type of numbers.
08:31Like, Debo Samuel is four and a half.
08:33You're betting on is Debo Samuel going to get the football in this game for at least one rush.
08:37If he does, he gets three yards.
08:39It was a good handicap.
08:40He just didn't get his number.
08:41But one carry to get five yards is interesting.
08:44Marcus Mariota is another one.
08:45He does have some legs here and a good pass rush for Kansas City.
08:48I usually look towards that because, Joe, if you're right about he's going to have to be throwing in the fourth quarter,
08:53that means they're dropping back relentlessly.
08:54And that also means Magnola knows that.
08:56And he's bringing the pass rush, which means you could get those.
08:59Hey, the defensive ends come up the field.
09:01I got a lane.
09:01There's eight yards there.
09:02And away we go.
09:03Marcus Mariota, 28 and a half rushing yards, I think makes a little bit of sense here, Joe.
09:08I agree.
09:09I think he's going to be scrambling.
09:10He's going to be running.
09:12But the difference between him, Andy Dalton, and Kirk Cousins is we've already seen him this year.
09:17We've already seen him play a couple of games.
09:20And actually, the offense was pretty reliable in scoring some points.
09:24So I do think they're going to be able to get some points.
09:27But he is going to have to absolutely use his legs, Donnie, to be effective in this one.
09:33How about some of these wide receivers?
09:34Rasheed Rice back in the fold, 67 and a half.
09:37He's the odds on favorite right now for the highest number of receiving yards.
09:41Travis Kelsey, 40 and a half.
09:42Xavier Worthy, 46 and a half.
09:44Then we have McLaurin at 45 and a half coming back off the injury.
09:48Debo Samuel, a little bit banged up, but he should go tonight, 42 and a half.
09:51Does anybody get your attention?
09:52By the way, Kelsey's only 40 and a half.
09:54Somebody's got to catch passes if you're looking at 275 as a prop here for Mahomes.
09:59Well, I think Rasheed Rice is for a couple of reasons.
10:02I like his over-reception sprop, Donnie, at five and a half.
10:06And I like his over-yardage for a couple of reasons.
10:08Number one, he's going to have a very favorable matchup against that secondary of Washington who can't cover anybody.
10:14And I think last time out, he had 10 targets.
10:17I think Mahomes went his way 10 times.
10:19Not to mention, Donnie, he's a lot fresher than anybody else because he hasn't played.
10:24But what, a game?
10:26So, the legs are good.
10:28He's not banged up.
10:29I think that, yeah, they're going to target him early, often, and go over that yardage prop as well as the receptions prop.
10:37Yeah, take a look at Xavier Worthy, 46 and a half.
10:39And again, we talk about Zach Ertz, how many of that blanket that you usually typically have over the field?
10:4332 and a half.
10:44You're going to be thrown in the fourth quarter.
10:45That's a lot of dump balls going away right there.
10:48You know who else we've got to bring into the fold?
10:49It's Tom Vecchio.
10:50We'll talk some of these props on Monday Night Football next, right here on The Early Line.
10:55Some stellar action on the gridiron yesterday.
10:58How can we transform that information into Monday Night Football?
11:01So, what we're basically saying is if you have a really good quarterback that's established and is going to be under center,
11:06going up against a veteran who's not really the starter,
11:09watch out if you're backing that bad quarterback, which could be Marcus Mariota.
11:12I'm Donnie Wrightside, and he's Joe Ranieri.
11:15Now we bring in Tom Vecchio for that prop perspective night on Monday Night Football.
11:19Tommy, how are we feeling today on this Monday?
11:21Doing good.
11:22Certainly an interesting game, given the fact that we're not going to be seeing Daniels out there for the commanders.
11:27The line is kind of all over the place.
11:29I was talking to Brady last night about it on In Game Live, where he said he was seeing some 12s.
11:34There was also some 10 and a half, which is not generally something that you see when we have a two-point gap across the market,
11:40where it's only just a point, maybe a point and a half at places, but a full two-point gap is relatively interesting.
11:45We're also dealing with a 47 and a half total, which is rather low when the Chiefs have a 30-team total.
11:52So, if they're going to be covering a game where they have a 30-team total,
11:55that means that the commanders simply aren't going to be scoring?
11:59Now, yeah, you're right about that.
12:01By the way, yesterday, this is what we love about the NFL, and also it could be maddening if you're taking sides.
12:05Tom and I talked yesterday, and we're going over a couple games.
12:08Like, Jets offense, like, I don't care if they're going against Cincinnati.
12:11Like, what is up?
12:11Like, they have nobody there.
12:13They almost ran up 40 points.
12:15And then you take a look at a game like the Texans.
12:16Like, CJ Stratton struggled all year.
12:18Now he has no weapons, and he goes 30 of 39 for 318 and two touchdowns against San Francisco in a victory there.
12:24It's been wild.
12:25So, Tom, let me talk about the quarterback position and what the expectations are tonight on Monday Night Football.
12:30Mahomes is really good.
12:31Kansas City is certainly in a groove.
12:33But I know an angle to play sometimes is, like, in the NBA, boy, it doesn't matter how good your team is.
12:38If there's a blowout in hand, you're not getting a full four quarters out of your player that you need to get those props.
12:43Looking at the quarterbacks tonight, Marcus Mariota and also Patrick Mahomes, which way we should be playing tonight?
12:49I think Mahomes is playing some of the best ball that he has, but I like him under 274 and a half passing yards tonight.
12:57If you look back to last week with Dak Prescott, and I'm not saying that they're the same quarterback, but the Cowboys put up 44 points.
13:04Dak threw for 264.
13:06You're like, he threw for under 275, and they put up 44 points.
13:10Obviously, the running game was working for them.
13:11So, I have two props tonight that are very, very correlated, which is going to, not Dak, going to Mahomes under 274 and a half.
13:19We look back at some of these recent game locks.
13:21Last week, yes, they torched the Raiders 286 from him.
13:25257, 318, 270, 224.
13:28Now, obviously, these games are different sample sizes that they got Rasheed Rice back last week, but he's barely going over this.
13:34And I don't expect the commanders to push him in this game that he needs to pass for 300 yards.
13:39If he does that, it's simply based on pure efficiency, and he's just slicing them apart in three quarters.
13:46I'm with you, Ty.
13:48I kind of think points are coming here tonight.
13:51And I guess the only reason that they might is because in the second half, Kansas City is going to be so far ahead that all they're going to do is run the ball and just chew off clock here.
14:01So, how do you approach it that way?
14:03I, it's tough for me to say that the Chiefs don't cover, and I know 11 and a half is a big number, 12 and a half is a big number.
14:11You know, if you can get the 10 and a half, I'll obviously love that with the Chiefs, but to say they win this game by 14 points, if I were to wake up tomorrow and see that, I am not surprised in any capacity.
14:20So, if they are ahead, I fully expect them to be giving the ball to Isaiah Pacheco.
14:23Isaiah Pacheco, he's coming off some good games, and I think they're going to involve him in the offense more and more.
14:27Kareem Hunt did pop up on the injury report on Friday.
14:31He was a full participant in practice on Saturday, but Pacheco is still the guy that I believe they want to get the ball to.
14:36So, I will take the over, also given the fact that we're getting plus money at it, I love.
14:41If we look at the touchdown scoring market tonight, Tom, we're just going over it.
14:44Travis Kelsey is the favorite right now, but a slight price opting at a minus 110, Rasheed Rice minus 105, everybody else's plus money.
14:53And you always use those correlation, Tom, if you're right.
14:55If we're looking at four plus touchdowns possibility for the Chiefs, somebody has to score.
15:00And we're not talking about Jonathan Taylor at minus 400, even though he scored three touchdowns yesterday.
15:04Like, we don't have that.
15:05There's probably going to be at least three touchdown scores for the Chiefs tonight.
15:09What do we think about that?
15:09I don't mind going to Worthy, and it's simply based on the fact that he had a bit of a quiet game last week when Rice came back.
15:17And this is what we may see from their offense.
15:19Now that they're fully healthy, Pacheco, Hunt, Kelsey, Rice, Worthy, Hollywood, Brown.
15:25Not everyone's going to score every game.
15:27And, Donnie, we've always talked about this, like, of the belief that a quarterback should keep their star wide receivers happy.
15:32It's just like, okay, if Rice doesn't score this week, I'll be on him next week.
15:35Worthy didn't score last week.
15:37I should be on him this week.
15:38He's like, just get everyone involved, keep the ball rolling.
15:40It's not going to be every player every week, but at least alternate weeks for some of these players.
15:45Yeah.
15:47So, who on the Washington side should we be looking at?
15:50I mean, Scary Terry is back.
15:51Debo is back.
15:53They don't have much of a running game because they're always playing from behind.
15:57So, I don't know.
15:58Who do we look at here?
16:00I want to trust Zach Ertz.
16:02And if you look positionally, the Chiefs are really, really good when it comes to the fewest yards allowed overall in the season to opposing tight ends.
16:11However, I am worried about the injuries with Terry coming back that I'm not fully sold on them.
16:18And I want to – I'm like, oh, they're back.
16:20I want to buy into their overs.
16:21So, I want to trust Zach Ertz just being that safety option for Mariota.
16:25But I do understand it's a very tough matchup.
16:27It's also a very low number for Zach Ertz.
16:29And if one of those receivers starts the game but doesn't finish, no one should be shocked.
16:34Tom, let me have a little fun with you here tonight on this game because some of those new markets open up.
16:38And I've actually been taking more look in college football than pro, but total yardage for the NFL teams tonight, Kansas City and Washington.
16:45Kansas City, Tom, is 396 and a half.
16:48So, you're basically rounding up to 400 yards and the commanders are 314 and a half.
16:52Just doing some quick computations in your mind as I see right there.
16:55Do any of those make sense?
16:56Because I look at the 396 and say they probably should get there.
17:00But if we're correlating, Tom, that let's just say Mahomes doesn't go to 275, does that mean they're rushing for like 140 yards in this game?
17:06Or do we just bleed this clock out?
17:08So, the commanders are giving up, what, 126 rushing yards per game.
17:14You know, a little bit worse than half in the league.
17:16The bottom half, I should say.
17:18So, if Mahomes, let's say he ends at 270, 126, like we're right at that number of 396 or 395.
17:27So, I'd be inclined to say the over.
17:29And, you know, I don't know if that's somewhat of a hedge where it's like, oh, Mahomes could go under, but they can go over due to the rushing.
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