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00:00The plastic comes from piping that we...
00:03Baldwin-Britain is a manufacturer based in Monterrey,
00:06trying to seize what some are calling the Mexican moment.
00:10And everything comes as its pellets, and it gets melted in this machine.
00:15As CEO of Plasti Exports, he runs several factories in northern Mexico
00:19making plastic components and finished consumer products.
00:23In his newest plant, kitchen containers.
00:25So this is for consumer products that we're selling to the United States.
00:30That basically came from near-shoring projects.
00:32So these products were previously made in China,
00:35and they're relocating into Mexico.
00:40This closer integration between Mexico and the United States
00:43was jump-started by the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA,
00:47back in 1994, covering Canada as well as the U.S. and Mexico.
00:52Britain is willing to bet you'll find something he makes in your home.
00:56As a longtime supplier of parts to U.S. and European home appliance companies,
01:01his new customers are just as likely to be Chinese multinationals you've never heard of.
01:0630 years ago, we saw a lot of shift of business from Mexico to China.
01:12And the last four years, we have seen the shift come back to Mexico.
01:16Are Chinese companies coming in to compete with you?
01:20Yes, they are coming.
01:21They're setting up plants in Mexico.
01:23As a matter of fact, in Nuevo León, the state of Nuevo León,
01:26which is the industrial hub of Mexico, they're setting up.
01:29So that basically forces companies like us to be in our A-game to compete with them.
01:35Shannon O'Neill is senior vice president of the Council on Foreign Relations.
01:39She sees the window of opportunity others do,
01:42but also some troublesome risks for investors.
01:45As you talk to investors in Mexico,
01:48how concerned are they about some of the issues you identified,
01:50like judicial reform, for example?
01:52These really are front and center in investors' minds.
01:55So the justice reform will mean that judges are now elected.
01:58And so businesses worry that those judges could be bought
02:01or influenced by the government in particular cases.
02:05What about security in particular?
02:06Because it wasn't that long ago that it felt like
02:08some of the individual Mexican states were almost in a state of civil war with the cartels.
02:13Security has worsened under this last government.
02:17Homicide rates have remained at near-record highs,
02:19but things like extortion, embezzlement, and other kidnappings have grown.
02:24One of the things an investor tends not to like is uncertainty.
02:27And it's building an uncertainty that happened under the last administration.
02:31It's continuing and even deepening.
02:33And we've seen it in the investment numbers.
02:35You know, what Mexicans were hoping 2024 would be a record highs in terms of investment,
02:39and most of it has been frozen, both international investment, foreign investment,
02:43but also domestic investment.
02:45So this is a time of uncertainty in Mexico,
02:48even as companies are looking for alternatives to Asia.
02:53And if that weren't enough, the USMCA itself,
02:56that successor agreement to NAFTA underpinning the nearshoring system,
03:00will be up for review in 2026,
03:03with new governments in both the United States and Mexico.
03:07I do think these are going to be pretty difficult negotiations.
03:10The really looming issue for the review of the USMCA is China.
03:15And where does China fit into supply chains in North America?
03:18And where does China fit into production more broadly in North America?
03:23Marcelo Ebrard is the new minister for the economy for President Sheinbaum,
03:27coming to the job after serving as mayor of Mexico City
03:30and as foreign minister under President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
03:34Ebrard's appointment itself could be a sign that President Sheinbaum
03:39welcomes further US investment and supports more economic integration.
03:44In the last administration, Ebrard led negotiations for the US-Mexico-Canada agreement.
03:49Well, we are extremely linked with the United States companies and market.
03:58So if you put tariffs on Mexico exports, for instance,
04:02those tariffs are going to translate in high prices for consumers in the United States.
04:08So I think we have a strong argument in order to reduce this possibility
04:15to have tariffs in our exports to the United States
04:20because there are American companies exporting to the United States.
04:25You don't solve anything with tariffs between us.
04:29It doesn't make sense because it's the same economy, practically.
04:32I know you have some tariffs on steel, for example, from China at this point.
04:37How do you see the role of tariffs?
04:38When do they make sense?
04:39When do they not make sense?
04:41Well, it's easy to abuse about tariffs,
04:45to put tariffs for any kind of article at the same time.
04:49We are not especially friendly with the tariffs for several fields
04:54because it can be costly for our economy, even for the United States economy.
05:00So we need to have a common policy with the U.S.
05:04Let's see what happens in the next election
05:06in order to have a conversation about the competition with China.
05:11Let's do something really effective
05:13because you are not going to solve competitiveness through tariffs.
05:19It doesn't work.
05:19But in the end, Minister Abrard recognizes
05:23that the real potential of the Mexican economy
05:25and its further integration with the United States
05:28will depend on its ability to attract private capital.
05:32And he can see a world where that integration
05:34transforms the world of Mexican exports.
05:38There is no other way to do it
05:40because we are not going to find, you know,
05:43new resources from oil or...
05:47No, it doesn't exist.
05:49Everything is going to depend on our capacities
05:53to produce better and more.
05:56How far can you go?
05:58How much progress can you make
06:00building the Mexican economy
06:01through integration with the United States?
06:04I think that if we are agree...
06:06If we have a common vision with,
06:09let's say, the private capital in the United States,
06:13this can be something near 25 percent of the imports
06:19from North America.
06:22So you can imagine the impact of this in Mexico.
06:26You can change the country in 10 years.
06:29Why not?
06:30Since we spoke with Minister Abrard in Monterey last October,
06:34President Trump has gone forward with tariffs on steel,
06:37aluminum and auto imports,
06:39though they apply only to the non-U.S. parts of vehicles
06:42imported under the USMCA.
06:45What this means for auto companies and their parts suppliers
06:48is still playing out.
06:49But Ontario-based manufacturer Martin Rea
06:52is seeing the ramifications in Canada, Mexico and in the United States.
06:56Martin Rea is a tier one auto supplier.
06:59We're leaders in structural parts,
07:01lightweight structures and propulsion systems.
07:04We make parts for cars.
07:07We're one of the larger suppliers in North America.
07:10Rob Wildeboer is the executive chairman
07:12of the auto parts company he co-founded in 1993.
07:16He says the tariffs have been disruptive
07:18up and down the supply chain.
07:20Parts on average can cross the border
07:22anywhere from six to eight times.
07:24But certainly we make parts that go into assemblies,
07:29that go into vehicles.
07:31So I'd say a lot of our parts probably two or three times.
07:35That flow has been disrupted by President Trump's
07:38imposition of a 25% tax on foreign vehicles.
07:42In turn, Canada announced a tariff on U.S. assembled vehicles.
07:46Companies like Martin Rea are collateral damage
07:48in a diplomatic feud between neighbors.
07:51So effectively, on average, Canadian assembled vehicles
07:54have 50% or more U.S. parts.
07:57So effectively, you're paying half the nominal tariff.
08:00And our argument is that we should basically move
08:02to get rid of that.
08:04The interesting thing between Canada and the United States
08:06is that when you look at assembled vehicles,
08:09Canada buys less from the United States
08:12than the U.S. buys from Canada.
08:13But when you look at the parts,
08:15the U.S. actually has a surplus with Canada in auto.
08:19So parts plus assembly.
08:21And that's in part because vehicles assembled in Canada
08:24that go to the U.S. have at least 50% U.S. parts.
08:27So there's not a trade disparity in that sense
08:29between Canada and the United States,
08:31contrary to what you often see in the papers and so forth.
08:35Now, for the first time in 30 years,
08:38Canada imports more vehicles from Mexico
08:40than from the United States.
08:42But what sounds like a win for Mexico
08:44might be a loss for the long-standing trade relationship
08:48among the North American countries.
08:50This is what works for North America.
08:52You need a Fortress North America approach.
08:55We shouldn't have tariffs on vehicles
08:56because we make vehicles together.
08:58And we shouldn't have tariffs on parts.
09:00And for most auto parts, there are no tariffs right now.
09:03If you put tariffs on auto parts,
09:05you would shut down the industry
09:06because there would be suppliers
09:07that do not cross the border.
09:09The second thing we need is stronger North American content,
09:14which the U.S. wants and so the supply base wants.
09:18The third thing is we need a penalty
09:19for not complying with that North American content.
09:23Right now, it's two and a half percent.
09:24It should be higher because if you have a low penalty,
09:27people essentially don't follow the rules.
09:29The fourth thing is I think it's good to have a tariff
09:32or some measure to force OEMs in Europe, Japan, and Korea
09:39to make more vehicles here.
09:41And the U.S. has done that with tariffs.
09:44I think ultimately you will see more assembly in North America
09:49because of that.
09:49And then the fifth thing is I think you've got to keep China out
09:52in terms of OEMs and parts as well as investment
09:55because China doesn't play by the same rules
09:57as the rest of the world does.
09:58When you have that, you're going to effectively have a regime
10:02that really works.
10:03So our advocacy, whether it's at Martin Rea
10:06or whether it's part of the Canadian Automotive Partnership Council
10:10or the Auto Parts Manufacturers Association or MEMA,
10:13all these associations that we're members of,
10:16we basically say what really works for North America
10:19and the competitiveness of our vehicle industry
10:22is tariff-free movement.
10:24And that will get cheaper vehicles to consumers,
10:28which is what we all want,
10:30and it will make our industry as efficient
10:32as it can possibly be.
10:34So I think with respect to the tariffs on Canadian-assembled vehicles
10:37going into the U.S.
10:38and Mexican-assembled vehicles going into the U.S.,
10:42we've got to work towards a 0% tariff
10:44because, quite frankly,
10:46that's how the integrated supply chain works.
10:48The history of the North American auto industry
10:52is rooted in tariffs.
10:54Canada's auto industry began in 1904
10:56when Henry Ford went to his neighbor in Windsor, Ontario
11:00to establish the Ford Motor Company of Canada
11:03to avoid Canadian tariffs on U.S. autos.
11:06As it turns out, history is repeating itself,
11:09or at least rhyming, for the auto industry.
11:11Canada's auto industry
11:12is rooted in the U.S. autos.
11:13Canada's auto industry
11:14is rooted in the U.S. autos.
11:15Canada's auto industry
11:16is rooted in the U.S. autos.
11:17Canada's auto industry
11:18is rooted in the U.S. autos.
11:19Canada's auto industry
11:20is rooted in the U.S. autos.
11:21Canada's auto industry
11:22is rooted in the U.S. autos.
11:23Canada's auto industry
11:24is rooted in the U.S. autos.
11:25Canada's auto industry
11:26is rooted in the U.S. autos.
11:27Canada's auto industry
11:28is rooted in the U.S.
11:29Canada's auto industry
11:30is rooted in the U.S.
11:31Canada's auto industry
11:32is rooted in the U.S.
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