Jones Expects Nasdaq to Climb Higher, Lower Rates

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00:00I want to ask about Wall Street and specifically about this equity market.

00:04I do watch our competition, and I saw your interview with Andrew last week.

00:11You said this is like October of 1999.

00:13But after that, as you pointed out, you know, the stock market doubled.

00:17We had a drop in October, like an 11 percent intraday drop, but then the stock market doubled

00:22to March of 2000.

00:23Are we still in line for a doubling of this market?

00:28Well, it's so funny because you had mentioned that 54 percent of fund managers think that

00:34we're in an AI bubble.

00:37If it's a bubble, it's a small one.

00:40If you just think about, and again, how do you actually define bubbles?

00:43If you think about the bubbles of the past three or four decades, the NICI in 89, NASDAQ

00:49in 99, biotech 2000, just after 2011, 12, China 2007.

00:58All those were four to six hundred percent gains.

01:01The NASDAQ's up two hundred percent off the bottom.

01:04So I don't know whether we're going to blow off like we did in 1999.

01:10Is it possible?

01:11Are all the ingredients in place?

01:14I think clearly they are.

01:17For me, the the one thing that you can never, ever forget is that a year from today, assuming

01:25that the president gets his wishes, that the Fed funds rate's going to probably be in the

01:31two and a half.

01:33I think they're I think they would like to see it at two and a quarter.

01:37So I think two and a half to 75, obviously, whoever the new Fed chair is going to have

01:42to be able to intellectually move that board, a majority of the board.

01:47He's probably whoever the new Fed chair.

01:49Let's say they've got six solid votes, so he'll have to find one more.

01:54And I don't think it'll be that hard to do.

01:56But if you're if you're going to have two and a half percent overnight rates or 275, that's

02:03a really compelling story for higher equity prices.

02:06You're still long stocks right now.

02:08You're still long the Nasdaq.

02:10I am.

02:12I wouldn't say I'm long at this second.

02:14I'm clearly again.

02:17I think there's such a confluence of possibly negative, possibly positive events.

02:23I think I want to kind of wait and see where we are in a week or two time.

02:28But but my my belief is that we'll be substantially higher by the end of the year.

02:33All right.

02:34So just to end on where we started with the pick a ticker contest for Robin Hood, I asked

02:39you last time and I'll ask you again for players at home.

02:43Yeah.

02:44What tips would you give us?

02:45What would you put?

02:47I'll probably.

02:49So I think it's going to begin November when I'm sure I'll probably be long.

02:52The Nasdaq will be my my long.

02:55Remember, you see, it's really interesting because the last 12 months of a bull market.

03:03Typically, you double the annual gains up into that point in time.

03:08But that's to the end of the bull market.

03:10So we've got this situation confronting us where the best part of the markets possibly

03:17straight ahead.

03:19But it's also the most dangerous because it could be the top.

03:21So so I would probably long the Nasdaq would be my long and I'm I've got to think about

03:28what my short would be.

03:29It could be.

03:31Hmm.

03:32Hmm.

03:33It might be the bond market again, though, that'll be a bit boring.

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