00:00Let's stick with earnings. Shares of Mattel taking a hit as retailers delay orders over tariff uncertainty.
00:05Bloomberg's Ender Curran joins us now for more.
00:07Ender, we're starting to see it. It might not be a big stock market issue,
00:11but a company turning around and saying some retailers are holding back, waiting for clarity.
00:15How much of an economic issue might that be?
00:19Well, it's a big question, a big missing piece of the jigsaw.
00:22When will these tariffs start to flow through to more broadly goods on the shelf, Jonathan?
00:27And, you know, this warning from Mattel, on the one hand, that tariffs are impacting its delivery of its goods,
00:33reflects what a lot of companies tell us all the time, that they've managed this process up to now.
00:37Either they have absorbed tariffs or they've asked their suppliers to absorb the tariffs.
00:41But at some point, that part of the equation will have to give and it will pass those costs on the consumer.
00:45That's a big question over the coming months.
00:47Now, to be clear, we haven't yet seen broad-based inflation from tariffs.
00:51And even Mattel made the point that consumer demand remains resilient.
00:55We saw lots of other consumer brands doing well also in its earnings season, Coca-Cola and GM and the like.
01:01So, clearly there's strength out there.
01:04But this question mark about when the tariffs will eventually hit home remains an open one, I think, for economists.
01:09And it's an open question as to whether the Fed will respond to it or should respond to it.
01:13And based on what we've heard from Chairman Powell, he's saying about this whole market just to ignore it.
01:17It's kind of bizarre that we've got no data right now, Enda.
01:19And even the data we do have, the market's prepared to ignore inflation, CPI on Friday.
01:24The amount of notes that I've read that have basically said it doesn't matter what that inflation number looks like on Friday.
01:29This Fed cuts a week today.
01:31Enda, do you and the team see it the same way?
01:35We are in a bizarre space, Jonathan.
01:36That's the only way to describe it.
01:37Look, if you were to just go face value with the data that we had up to the lockdown and maybe some of those private indicators up to now, you could say it suggested the labour market remains soft, but the inflation story hasn't gone away.
01:49The Fed will carry on with their cut in October.
01:51That's been all of the public utterances.
01:53But really, after that, it becomes a much more complicated story, Jonathan, to your point.
01:57What happens if we get the data back on tap and it does suggest that the labour market maybe is so-so, if not softening, but inflation remains persistent?
02:04We know there are plenty of officials on the Fed board who have concerns about inflation.
02:08So, you know, that cut next week in this month of October seems a lock.
02:12But in the months ahead, it's probably going to be a much more complicated story.
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