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00:00And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day.
00:04Romain Bostic alongside Katie Greifeld taking you through to that closing bell with a global simulcast.
00:09It's already started. There's Carol Master. There's Tim Stenevich.
00:12Welcome to our audiences across our Bloomberg platform, television, radio, our partnership with YouTube here on a really volatile day, at least in some asset classes.
00:21And after the bell tonight, Carol, we get a slew of earnings, including from Netflix.
00:25Well, you talk about some of those asset classes, precious metals, right?
00:28We've seen silver and gold, a big pullback in today's session.
00:31We just had a guest on. We were talking about, yeah, just taking a little money off the table, but still thinking that that is still a good trade for investors.
00:38Netflix, certainly the star of the show in the next few minutes.
00:41But don't forget, we're still looking at what's going on with regional banks.
00:44Western Alliance is reporting at 430. We're going to have those numbers for you.
00:48We did hear from Zions yesterday that maybe helped to, I don't know, lessen some of the concern that folks had about there being it being less idiosyncratic and more systemic when it comes to risk for these regionals.
01:00Absolutely. I mean, you can see that in shares of Zion rising another one point six percent today.
01:05You can see that, too, in shares of Western Alliance rising one and a half percent in anticipation.
01:10But really, again, it all comes down to Netflix.
01:13Yeah, I do want to point out, though, too, I mean, so far this earnings season has been good.
01:16I mean, we got the banks. But then I don't know if you saw this morning.
01:19I mean, a beaten race by General Motors, a beaten race by General Electric, a beaten race by 3M.
01:24So you're getting a lot of these companies that, you know, no offense to Netflix, that are probably much more reflective of economic conditions.
01:31And at least for right now, they seem to be doing well.
01:33A broadening out, right? We always say that that's important in the marketplace, certainly in the trade.
01:37Also good to see that in earnings remain.
01:39All right, let's walk you through the daily numbers here as you wait a slew of earnings across the wire.
01:43Now that we get the closing bells, I'm going to start with the Dow Jones Industrial Average,
01:47because that is going to close decidedly in the green, up more than 200 points or about five tenths of one percent.
01:52The Nasdaq Composite, down two tenths of one percent.
01:55The Nasdaq 100, down less than a tenth of a percent.
01:58And the S&P 500, it takes a while for these numbers to settle,
02:01but we're just going to call it unchanged on the day, right around 67.35 and change.
02:05The Russell 2000 down, a half a percentage point.
02:08All right, quick check on the S&P 500.
02:10Not quite an even split, a little bit more to the upside.
02:12299 names, Katie, gaining ground on this Tuesday, 202 to the downside.
02:17Which is interesting, because you take a look at the sectors,
02:20you had more sectors that were lower on the day, eight to be exact.
02:24Only three sectors managing to finish in the green.
02:27They were consumer discretionary, industrials, and health care.
02:31What didn't do too hot today is utilities, communication services, and materials.
02:36But still, overall, the S&P 500 unchanged.
02:39Yeah, interesting, right, to see that it almost is like we were waiting for a few things, like earnings,
02:44whether we get that inflation report on Friday, looking for some more clarity about kind of what's coming at investors
02:50and certainly what it might mean for our Fed policy.
02:53All right, we are getting those Netflix earnings crossing the wire right now, so let's dive into them.
02:57Texas Instruments also crossing the wire on Netflix.
03:00I'm going to start with the guidance.
03:01The company says that for its full year, it sees revenue of $45.1 billion.
03:07It had a previous range of 44.8 to 45.2, so basically guiding towards the top end of that range,
03:13but maybe just a smidge lower.
03:15Now, here are their results for the third quarter, their fiscal third quarter.
03:19Free cash flow was a beat, $2.66 billion.
03:21EPS was a beat, excuse me, I take that back.
03:25EPS was a miss, $5.87 a share.
03:28The street was looking for $6.94 a share, so a beat on a miss on EPS.
03:33On the revenue side here, it also looks like they came in a touch light, $11.51 billion.
03:38The street was looking for $11.52 billion here.
03:42And, of course, we don't get those subscriber metrics, but overall,
03:45the two metrics that they really want us to pay attention to with regards to revenue
03:48and with regards to bottom line EPS, it looks like a modest miss in the most recent quarter
03:54and a modest guide to the top end of the range for the rest of the year.
03:58Well, you can see the disappointment in Netflix shares right now down 5.5%.
04:02We'll dig deeper into that, but let's take a quick detour to what's going on with Texas Instruments right now.
04:07Another miss when it comes to third quarter EPS, missing estimates coming in at $1.48 in the third quarter.
04:15The consensus had been for $1.49.
04:19When it comes to fourth quarter revenue, the guide there is for $4.22 billion to $4.58 billion.
04:25The estimate had been for $4.5 billion.
04:29So a range there, you average that, and it comes in at the low end below that estimate.
04:35So you can see Texas Instruments shares down about 4% in the after hours trade.
04:40Also down, Netflix continuing to watch what's happening in the after hours, down about 7.3%.
04:45Our own Lucas Shaw, out with his first take on earnings, writing that a tax dispute with Brazil
04:51cut into third quarter earnings at Mars results that otherwise fell in line with Wall Street estimates.
04:55Netflix had to pay about $619 million to settle a multi-year tax dispute with Brazilian authorities going back to 2022.
05:03But the company said it would have beaten forecasts if not for that expense.
05:07Shares down just about 5.75%.
05:10Yeah, I mean, keep in mind that this stock has been certainly an outperformer this year, up about 39% year-to-date.
05:15But again, the big headline in terms of the outlook, Netflix seeing fiscal year revenue $45.1 billion,
05:22had seen about 44.8% to 45.2%, so a bit of a range.
05:27But that number below, the higher point of that range remained.
05:30You know, I always like to look at sort of, you know, they talk about their content and some of the big hits that they've had.
05:35Of course, you know, Happy Gilmore, which is one of their more successful, at least in terms of streams, in the most recent quarter.
05:43My life with the Walter boys and Honeywives and a few others.
05:45But it gets to this idea here that it's assuming that we're not actually being able to see what those subscriber numbers are.
05:53The question is, how is this actually adding to the bottom line?
05:56How, in fact, is this adding to the top line?
05:58And that's going to be a big question for, I guess, the one analyst who's allowed to ask questions on that conference call.
06:03Yeah, absolutely.
06:04I have to imagine it's made that man's job a little bit more difficult here.
06:09You dig into some of the international markets as well.
06:12This is what we have been discussing with an analyst over from Morningstar, that when it comes to the growth opportunity, there's a lot of focus on international.
06:19It seems like when it comes to Latin America, when it comes to APAC revenue, they're falling a little bit short of expectations for both of those regions.
06:27The U.S. and Canada and Europe did manage to just slightly beat expectations.
06:32But, again, it's where you expand to next.
06:35Is the U.S. market saturated?
06:37That's also one of the big questions here.
06:39What does the content slate look like, too, especially with potential M&A?
06:43Greg Peter is telling Lucas Shaw back in just two weeks ago at Screen Time that they're more builders, not buyers.
06:51Yet our reporting today from that team shows that, well, maybe they could be interested in Warner Brothers Discovery, at least parts of Warner Brothers Discovery.
07:01So if they get a movie studio, how much will they pay for that movie studio?
07:05Or maybe this is just trying to bid up the price so other rivals have to pay more.
07:09Maybe they could lean on Mattel for some IP or something.
07:13Mattel reporting their earnings just crossing the Bloomberg terminal.
07:16Investors don't like it, down about 14%.
07:19Let's go right to the outlook.
07:20The company still sees fiscal year adjusted EPS of $1.54 to $1.66 a share.
07:26Estimate is $1.61.
07:28Still sees fiscal year net sales at constant currency, up 1% to up 3%.
07:35And fiscal year adjusted gross margin of about 50%.
07:38The estimate on the street was about 50.3.
07:40But the company says sales dip as tariff uncertainty delays Christmas orders.
07:45And that's not a good thing to hear because you know how much the holiday season is so important to this company, Romain.
07:52Capital One also out with their report as we were speaking here.
07:55The most recent quarter adjusted EPS comes in higher than expectations, $5.95.
08:01The street was looking for $4.39.
08:04Net charge-offs also better than expected, $3.47 billion.
08:09The street was looking for about $3.7 billion.
08:11So decent bottom line and a slight improvement when it comes to the negative of charge-offs here.
08:18We should also point out the company said its efficiency ratio actually increased, widened, I should say, 53.8%.
08:24Yeah, and you can see Capital One shares moving slightly higher after hours.
08:28This is a company, too, that had a high bar when you consider that Capital One shares higher by nearly 23% on a total return basis in 2025 through today's close.
08:38I do want to circle back to what we're seeing with Mattel, with Netflix.
08:41I actually have a way to tie them together.
08:43You talk about IP, Carol.
08:44Actually, there was a report out earlier today that Netflix has picked Mattel and Hasbro for K-pop Demon Hunters toy partnerships.
08:53That's not helping out either stock at this moment right now.
08:56And I think to pick up what you were saying about Mattel, Carol, that to see tariff uncertainty delaying Christmas orders,
09:03I mean, this is prime time, obviously, for a toy company and really speaks to where we are when it comes to the global trade landscape.
09:11Yeah, I mean, listen, you're talking about a toy industry that gets most of its products from China,
09:16and that has been, Tim, as we know, a key target of President Trump's tariff increases.
09:21Okay, so other companies reporting, too, after the Bell Intuitive Surgical, the maker of the Da Vinci Surgical Robot,
09:27shares surging right now up more than 12% in the after hours.
09:31The company sees 2025 adjusted gross profit margin 67% to 67.5%.
09:37Third quarter adjusted EPS beat estimates, Romain.
09:40All right, I also just want to very quickly just go to Omnicom, because, of course, we're going to talk a little bit more about Netflix
09:45and that build-out of its ad platform.
09:47Omnicom, one of the biggest ad platforms out there, they reported earnings relatively in line with estimates,
09:53$4.04 billion in revenue in the most recent quarter, and $2.24 in adjusted EPS, relatively in line with estimates,
10:02but you see a slight tick to the downside in the shares in the after hours.
10:06All right, folks, as we wrap, we've got Mattel certainly dipping big time in the aftermarket.
10:11It is down about 20% here as we speak, actually now down about 11%.
10:15TI is down about 5%, and then, of course, Netflix down almost 6% here in the aftermarket,
10:20so a lot for investors to kick around, certainly, into the Wednesday trade.
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