- 4 hours ago
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00What can I glean from these TSMC results, and how is it going to tell us about the earnings for the rest of the tech space?
00:04It's 10.30 p.m. in this AI party. It started at 9 p.m., and that party goes to 4 a.m.
00:10And the reality is, like, look, this is going to be a two to three year left in this bull cycle for tech.
00:17Look, haters are going to hate. Bears will say it's a, you know, this is a bubble.
00:21I could just tell you, this is a fourth industrial revolution.
00:24We are just in the early days of this playing out.
00:27I think there's numbers, and we're going to see throughout tech earnings, it's going to be validation for the AI revolution.
00:33And I think the bears, look, when the bears are in hibernation mode, they can't see AI in spreadsheets.
00:39Are you looking specifically for anything in the guidance of the upcoming earnings?
00:44Look, I think demand and supply for NVIDIA chips are 10 to 1.
00:48So just start there.
00:49Then you think about AMD, now that they're, you know, obviously.
00:53In all these deals.
00:54They're going to be in all these deals.
00:55Intel gets brought in, TSMC.
00:58And then you kind of, in a puzzle, look at the hyperscalers.
01:02And I think right now, Microsoft, Google, Amazon tracking anywhere from 5% to 7% above expectations.
01:08Look at Oracle, what they're seeing.
01:10Look, you put the pieces together here in the puzzle, especially names like Palantir and others.
01:14It should.
01:15This is the next phase of the AI revolution.
01:17And that's why I think we're going to be talking about $25,000, NASDAQ, $27,000, $30,000, as this all plays out in this AI super cycle.
01:27I have to be a hater, I guess, because of how bullish you are.
01:31I'm not really a hater, but I'm just going to play the hater.
01:34Just to play the devil's advocate.
01:35You mentioned about these deals, these circular deals.
01:37When you're talking about trillion dollars that OpenAI is willing to kind of pay for.
01:41I mean, we don't even know how they're going to get the money for it.
01:42But what does that tell you about, you know, where we are?
01:47I mean, people say that is a bubble.
01:48Sure.
01:49So, look, and I get that.
01:50As someone like myself covered tech stock back in the 90s, right?
01:54So people make comparisons.
01:55I viewed apples, oranges.
01:56Because here, you're building out the next economy for enterprise, for consumers.
02:02And we're talking about, like, autonomous, robotics, the future.
02:07So it's not like vendor financing that we saw doing.
02:09And I view it as like, if I'm Sam in OpenAI, if I'm going to give Lisa Su and AMD a dollar,
02:15but I'm going to get back 15 to 20 hours, that sounds like a good deal.
02:19And I think that's essentially how this is playing out.
02:21I view it as more collaboration in terms of big tech in this build out.
02:25But that's where we are.
02:26I just don't – look, we're going to continue to have these moments where investors will be like,
02:31that's it.
02:32Oh, that's a sign of a bubble.
02:34I just think right now, streets underestimating numbers, anywhere from 20% to 30% over the next year,
02:40underestimating the super cycle for AI, and I think underestimating the second, third,
02:44fourth derivative winners across tech.
02:47Do we go a step further beyond simply vendor financing or collabs?
02:53Let's call it collabs.
02:53Do we get more mergers?
02:56Does it make sense to vertically integrate some parts of this?
03:00Yeah.
03:00I mean, look, think about where are the chokeholds power?
03:05So you're going to see more and more acquisitions, whether it's on nuclear infusion.
03:09I believe in big tech buyers.
03:10Right.
03:11You think about acquisitions on the use case side, because right now,
03:15massive AI Palantir is really front and center, but you've got names like MongoDB, Snowflake,
03:19and many other in software, where, look, software back against the wall right now, right?
03:23And you saw that even with Salesforce and others.
03:25So I think we're going to see more and more M&A, both from software and big tech players.
03:31Look, and what that means, that's just, that's bullishness, you know,
03:34in terms of where I think these tech stocks, you know, go going forward.
03:37Just given the trends, a deregulatory environment, a Fed that's cutting.
03:42I get the U.S.-China tensions, and that's something that obviously everyone's navigating.
03:46But I think you continue to sort of, this is a game of high-stakes poker.
03:51And I think if you've been able to navigate it, that's how you've been able to make a lot of money since April.
03:56But if China is trying to enforce at least this whole, you know, these export curbs around rare earths, for example,
04:04doesn't that have some sort of impact on global markets?
04:05I view it as all, look, it's all a negotiation, right?
04:08I mean, this is all a game of poker.
04:11And then they're on the same side with U.S. and NVIDIA.
04:13But at the end of the day, China, there's a super cycle going on, U.S. super cycle.
04:19So I don't view it negatively, maybe like some others, because I view it competition.
04:24Guess what?
04:25That's bull, I mean, you know, our AI 30, we have Alibaba and Baidu, because then that's bullish for China.
04:31Just like what's happened in the U.S.
04:33So I view this much more of a global super cycle that's actually being led by U.S. and China,
04:38rather than some sort of, you know, battle, and that's going to be negative for the names.
04:44What about just short-term investment strategy, right?
04:48So Palantir, good company, arguably very bad stock.
04:53It's trading at, I don't know, but it's some crazy multiple.
04:56How do you approach something like that?
04:57Who's bullish, but you look at the company, it should not be trading at that multiple.
05:00Well, it's like a Palantir, right?
05:02They hate it at 12, despise it at 50, yelling from the mountaintops at 100.
05:08So the point is, like, they've missed, you know, obviously this 15-bagger.
05:12I believe Palantir is a trillion-dollar company in the next two or three years,
05:16because my view is that if you just focus on one-year PE valuation, you miss every transformation of growth stock.
05:21It doesn't capture it.
05:21You miss every transformation of growth stock to last 20 years.
05:24So you have to be able to look out.
05:26But, look, I get it in terms of in the spreadsheets, they can't see these things.
05:31But for someone like myself, travels the globe, I say, and in my Palantir,
05:35I view that as really one of the leaders of this AI revolution.
05:40How have you been traveling around the region?
05:43Obviously, we've been talking a lot about the China tech and AI sort of race and the like.
05:48How do you see the parallels or differences between the U.S.?
05:51Yeah.
05:52I think here, look, if I just compare over the years, right, last skepticism, you know, maybe four years ago, three years ago.
06:00And now, no matter where you go in the regions, who are the winners, whether it's on memory, infrastructure, energy.
06:09Because the reality is it's a deregulatory environment, and you can't fight the trend.
06:14Trillions being spent, okay, you could argue valuation on some of these names, and that's all in the eye of the beholder.
06:20But it's like, okay, what are the second, third, fourth derivative beneficiaries?
06:23And I actually, I think it's very positive in terms of just overall sentiment.
06:28Look, you're going to have some white-knuckle moments.
06:29You guys always talk, and I get that.
06:31But that's all part of this journey where I believe tech stocks go higher, both in U.S. as well as in China.
06:38When you look across the AI ecosystem that they're creating in China, for example, everything from the foundries all the way to the designers all the way to the end users, where do you suspect the gaps are going to be?
06:53In other words, where do you see the opportunities as you draw the parallels with what we're seeing outside of China?
06:57Look, China is clearly ahead on power, right?
07:01And that's going to be a chokehold in the U.S., and that's why nuclear and that definitely...
07:04Is it nuclear, by the way?
07:05I believe it's going to be.
07:06For U.S., I think it's nuclear.
07:07I think nuclear, that's why ACO is the name that we've been super bullish on.
07:11Look, when you look at China, like robotics, like massive innovation that's happening, you look at ultimately what's going to happen with Huawei.
07:18I believe Alibaba, to me, is just a massively dislocated name.
07:22That's why we're super bullish on it.
07:24Baidu is another one.
07:25And I think what you're now seeing is just this massive innovation wave coming to China.
07:30It's not just about big tech in China.
07:32It's about whether it's on mobile, whether it's on auto.
07:36So this is going to be a time right now where I think globally investors want to risk on when it comes to the China market.
07:43I get this U.S.-China battle, and we've been navigating it.
07:47But you cannot let it deter you from a fourth industrial revolution that we're living in.
07:52Because it comes down to, if you watch the party from the outside through the windows, at 6 a.m., the bulls and the bears meet up at the diner.
07:59Bulls had a lot better night than the bears.
08:01So the point is that that speaks to my view in terms of where we are.
08:06You don't want to get in front of that train.
08:07Yeah.
08:09When you talk about the likes of Alibaba, the likes of Baidu, is it better in terms of in China to focus on these big beta names?
08:15Or do you look at things like a camper con now as a U.S. investor?
08:19I think for me right now, it's about China big tech.
08:22I still think it's way oversold.
08:24I mean, obviously, you've had some rebound.
08:26But investors are not appreciating what this can do for Alibaba, for Baidu, for GED, in terms of where I see it.
08:34Sure.
08:34And I think also, these are companies that are transforming.
08:38Maybe an auto company today might be a mobility company over the next year or two.
08:43So to me, it's big tech in China that continues to be the core play from a U.S. perspective.
08:48And then, ultimately, you look at the derivatives as this plays out on the memory side and others.
08:55You're here in the Asia-Pacific several times a year.
08:58Do you notice a big difference between your trips?
09:00How does that – what's sort of the delta on what you observe on the ground?
09:04I'd say delta, let's say a few months ago, was a little more like a lot of nervousness.
09:10Okay.
09:10Now, it's like, who do I invest in?
09:14What am I missing?
09:16Where do I go?
09:16So I think it's much more of that attitude across the world that I see.
09:22Because, look, I think investors are realizing, like, you can't fight these – when you have big tech spending $350 billion,
09:29and probably going to spend $450 billion in CapEx next year, sovereigns around the world now starting again in Middle East,
09:35obviously, U.K. and others, the biggest beneficiary is there.
09:39It's U.S. tech.
09:40It's China tech.
09:41How do you capitalize on that?
Recommended
5:23
|
Up next
7:31
7:01
6:14
6:51
3:04
2:39
8:47
9:02
4:39
1:31
6:36
3:08
0:42
12:39
1:56
1:40
1:22
Be the first to comment