NZ Defense Minister on Geopolitical Landscape

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00:00How are you assessing the geopolitical landscape at the moment?

00:04We're seeing potential flashpoints all around the world.

00:06We talk about the Middle East, we talk about even Asia,

00:09in the South China Sea, even in the Korean Peninsula.

00:12It feels like the world is in flux.

00:15So we've had, in essence, around a 30-odd-year peace dividend,

00:20we could say, where most people understood there was basically a world order,

00:26that people could understand the rules-based order,

00:28they could understand that boundaries and borders meant something

00:31and that there would generally be agreement that that's the way they would be.

00:35But now we're seeing a time of quite a lot of change,

00:39and whether it's the China-US relationship

00:42or whether it's what's happening in Europe or what's happening in the Middle East,

00:46it feels like there's quite a few flashpoints around the world all at once,

00:50rather than just one.

00:52So for countries like New Zealand and other small nations,

00:55this is a time where we're trying to do our very best

00:58to increase our own defence spending

01:00and to do more for ourselves along with other like-minded partners.

01:05But it's also a time where we're feeling,

01:06well, we just have to do more for ourselves these days.

01:09That's right.

01:10And we're hearing more and more countries talk about strategic independence.

01:13Can that be the way forward?

01:15I mean, in a region like the Indo-Pacific,

01:18shouldn't there be a stronger alliance?

01:20Well, we have some pretty good, strong alliances now.

01:23So we're aligned with Australia, have been for well over 75 years,

01:28very close relationship, a lot of interoperability.

01:31In fact, I met up with one of our crew for one of our ships yesterday,

01:35and there were a couple of Australians on board, seconded in,

01:38and that's the sort of thing we do all the time.

01:40We also have very good relationships with, say, Singapore and Malaysia,

01:44with the Philippines now.

01:46That's increasing.

01:46Japan, Republic of Korea,

01:50there's closer relationships with India coming.

01:52So there's a lot of those sorts of relationships.

01:57And should I also point out, too,

01:58that the UK, US, Canada and France

02:02are very close relationships as well.

02:04Let's talk about that, US reliability in particular.

02:08We know that New Zealand is part of the five-eye arrangement.

02:11I mean, can you trust that arrangement when the US seems to be,

02:17you know, thawing its relations with Russia?

02:19You've got to wonder if you can continue to share intelligence

02:22in such an environment.

02:25Well, I have no doubt at all that the relationship,

02:27the five-eye relationship is very trustworthy,

02:30and that we can absolutely work with the US

02:33and trust their information and what we provide them,

02:36just as they do with us.

02:37It's a very long-standing relationship from just after World War II.

02:42But also, for a small nation like New Zealand

02:45to not be part of that would be, I think, a real tragedy for us.

02:49And it's one of the ways that we deal with the cyber attacks

02:52that we're constantly receiving.

02:55But it's also about understanding and trying to know

02:58where New Zealanders are in the world,

03:00how safe we can keep them,

03:01but also the Pacific region itself,

03:03very important relationship.

03:05And I haven't seen any issues with that at all.

03:07We talk about how the new world order or the global order

03:11has been upended by the US.

03:13The US is pushing back in defending democracies around the world,

03:16and some say that paves the way for China to play a bigger role

03:19in this planet world.

03:20That has been China's narrative anyway.

03:22Are you seeing any evidence of that?

03:25Well, we're seeing a certainly more robust position from China

03:29in the Indo-Pacific region.

03:31We've seen it around the Cook Islands.

03:33We're seeing it around the South China Sea,

03:37the Taiwan Straits, all of that.

03:40And what I would say is that the role in the Pacific for larger nations

03:45should be one where we work with Pacific nations.

03:48We're a Pacific nation ourselves.

03:50We say, well, we work with each other.

03:52We help each other.

03:53But what we never do is dictate, and that is very important.

03:56So I think China has been increasing its work in the Pacific,

04:02and we're also seeing that the US is still working out

04:06quite where they're going to be.

04:07But I think the message from, I'm hoping the message from Secretary of Defense

04:12Pete Hexth is going to be very strongly that the United States understands

04:18it's a Pacific nation.

04:20It's a Pacific nation with a lot to lose if it's not involved.

04:24And I think that the US will stump up in the Pacific.

04:27As you said, Pete Hexth will be here representing the US,

04:30but we're not seeing the presence of the Chinese Defense Minister.

04:34How are you reading that?

04:35Well, that's a very unusual situation.

04:37So the Chinese Defense Minister, Admiral Dong,

04:40has been absolutely at almost everything that we could possibly be at together.

04:45So I'm surprised by that.

04:47I'm not sure what to read in it.

04:49But I do think that there is a Chinese presence.

04:52He does have a deputy here.

04:53But it's unusual.

04:54And I think it's something many nations will be slightly surprised about.

05:00Would you say it is a missed opportunity to have high-level discussions

05:03with the Defense Minister of China at a time of great uncertainty in the world?

05:07Well, I think it's up to China.

05:09I mean, they'll decide who they send.

05:11So I don't want to read too much in it.

05:13But it is surprising.

05:15But look, people sometimes can't attend for various reasons.

05:18And I doubt they've made a strategic decision.

05:22Minister Collins, we know that New Zealand will be upping its defense spending to 2% in the coming years.

05:27What would be the priority for the country?

05:30Well, the big thing is to remember that we're a maritime nation.

05:32We have the fourth largest search and rescue area in the world.

05:36We have the ninth largest exclusive economic zone.

05:39And that we need to really build our capability back.

05:43At the same time, using new technologies, particularly drones, land, sea and air.

05:48And also using our space sector.

05:50Because we are third in the world last year for successful verifiable vertical launches into space.

05:57So for a small nation with the population of Alabama, we're actually doing quite well.

06:03And we're certainly back in things.

06:05So 2% is a doubling of our defense budget.

06:08And then we're also looking every two years to see whether or not we can increase that further.

06:13But we do realize we have to pull our weight.

06:15And we are.

06:15How soon do you think you might have to increase your defense spending?

06:19A small nation like Singapore, a population of 5 million, is spending 3% of its GDP.

06:24And NATO member countries are now being asked to spend 5%.

06:28Well, I think the point is that we need to be able to justify, obviously, its New Zealand population.

06:35And they've been incredibly supportive of our doubling of our defense spending.

06:39But also, we have to have the personnel to do this.

06:43So in Singapore, there's, of course, there's national service.

06:46There's a ready market of people, a ready cohort of people to come into the military.

06:52In New Zealand, we don't have that.

06:53But what we do have is we've inherited a major problem with attrition in the defense forces.

06:59So we're up to 17.7% at one stage, losing people a year.

07:04Now we're down to, across the whole board, 7.1%, which is a normal percent.

07:08So we've got to rebuild the personnel.

07:10If I had even double of what I've been given, I still wouldn't be able to spend it properly,

07:15because I just have equipment sitting there waiting to be used.

07:18We've got ships tied up at dock because we don't have enough personnel.

07:21So it's about increasing as we go.

07:24But, yeah, we've got a big commitment, and we're looking to do more.

07:28Minister Collins, even as the U.S. talks about being committed to the Indo-Pacific,

07:31there has been a pullback in its commitment to the region as well.

07:35And some are questioning whether the likes of Japan or Europe could possibly fill that gap being left behind by the U.S.

07:41What's your thought?

07:41I think Japan is obviously looking to see what it can do.

07:46It's very interested in the Pacific.

07:48It's very interested in being involved.

07:49I think also people should also remember that the Pacific, floor of the Pacific,

07:54it's a big blue ocean.

07:55There's lots of fish, but there's a lot of minerals down there.

07:58And seabed mining is really what a lot of countries are looking at.

08:03Certainly China's done a deal recently with the Cook Islands.

08:08The U.S. has made some discussions, or certainly some companies have said that they're interested in it.

08:14There's a lot of that.

08:15And what we're saying is, remember, the Pacific is full of resources.

08:19It is therefore quite a vulnerable area because we're mostly small nations.

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