00:00It's a crucial election in the sense that the two candidates, as the reporting just said, represent dramatically different approaches towards the European Union.
00:09But I do have to underline that there are other foreign policy stances when it comes to Poland's transatlantic relationship, its relationship with the United States in particular, and its approach towards Ukraine.
00:19There's actually quite a lot of similarities between those two candidates.
00:25So when it comes to the EU, there's a major difference.
00:30And whether Trzaskowski wins or Noworowski wins is going to determine how far Donald Tusk can actually increase his strengthening of ties with the European Union through European defence and the strengthening of European defence mechanisms and with individual EU member states such as France or Germany.
00:51Martin, why is the country so divided, though?
00:55This is a huge decision it's about to make, but it's incredibly divided on which way to turn.
01:01And it's going to be really marginal as to who ultimately becomes victorious here.
01:06I mean, I think that this is no different from all the other countries that we're seeing, all the other polarisation situations that we're seeing developing in Western Europe and in the United States as well.
01:18We're living through a time where the right wing has a very strong platform.
01:26Social media and disinformation is certainly creating this very highly polarised situation in which we all live in.
01:33So Poland is struggling between being a majority right wing country with all the support going to Noworowski and also being a marginally progressive liberal voter base.
01:48So it's right there on the cusp.
01:51And the interesting thing is that the issues that are driving this election campaign are not so much in terms of content.
01:58It's not that much about Europe and Poland's stance towards Europe or the United States or Ukraine.
02:05It's more of an emotional campaign about the other side being evil and leading to a detrimental situation in the country.
02:16So how do things like a Trump endorsement therefore impact?
02:22Does that have an impact in terms of how people are likely to vote?
02:27Actually, marginally, I'd say, because Donald Tusk's government, while being pro-European and wanting to strengthen ties with Europe,
02:37being a part of the coalition of the willing and this core group of European countries that are strengthening European defence and coming to Ukraine's side,
02:48he represents those trends.
02:51At the same time, he still maintains very strong ties with the United States.
02:56There has been a major purchase once again of American equipment.
03:00So Donald Tusk and Shaskovsky are both positioning themselves as pro-American candidates just as much as Navarotsky is.
03:09So the United States has actually not been a major conflicting line in this election.
03:15Of course, Navarotsky is more ideologically aligned, but that's not something that has played a strong role in this election.
03:22If the Ukraine war continues, do we see Navarotsky or others like him continue to gain prominence?
03:32If we can't find a way through the Ukrainian conflict in the near term, if it is a war that just continues with no obvious end point,
03:39how does that impact Polish politics?
03:43Well, it impacts Polish politics on two levels.
03:46On the one hand, there's the growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment, which has actually exponentially grown because of the election campaign.
03:55So interestingly, fatigue of the war in Ukraine has grown since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, there's no doubt.
04:05But because of the very anti-Ukrainian sentiments that have been peddled actually by both candidates,
04:11by Navarotsky and by Shaskovsky, who has gone more for the right-wing vote and appealed to this anti-Ukrainian sentiment,
04:19that has exponentially grown.
04:21So I think that that will continue if the war continues.
04:24And I do think that it will continue in the foreseeable future because there's no ceasefire in sight.
04:31That will continue to impact Polish domestic politics.
04:36And at the same time, the security situation and people's fear of the conflict in Ukraine spilling over to Polish territories will still be there.
04:49OK. So let's say that we have that kind of long-term tension that exists.
04:55If we end up, therefore, in a situation where we've got Tusk and Navarotsky, how does that work going forward into that kind of world that you're painting a picture of?
05:05Yeah, that's extremely problematic.
05:07I mean, we'll be dealing with, in the case of Tusk government for the next two years and Navarotsky,
05:13that will have a major impact on whether Tusk manages to win the 2027 parliamentary election.
05:20With Navarotsky in power, he's not going to be able to push through the judicial reforms that he has promised to push through and on which he campaigned in the 2023 election.
05:35So if Navarotsky vetoes, and he certainly will, because it's not going to be a friendly cohabitation, it's going to be extremely fiery cohabitation,
05:44his term, Tusk's term, the four years of him being in power, are not going to be successful.
05:51And therefore, his chances of winning the 2027 election will be very small.
05:59And in that kind of a scenario, Europe feels even more divided.
06:03Does it feel like in that scenario that Poland pulls away from the EU, pulls away from its more Western allies?
06:09I would think so. From Western, not Western in the sense of United States, I think that the policy, the Polish policy,
06:19whether it's Trzaskowski or Navarotsky or Tusk or anybody else, Poland will remain a strong ally to the United States
06:26because of its security situation and because of how crucial of a role the United States plays in continuing security support.
06:37If that continues, of course, there's a caveat there.
06:40However, when it comes to European politics, if Navarotsky wins and Tusk does not manage to win the 2027 election,
06:49and we maintain this very strong, like I said in the beginning, this majority of right wing voters, about 50 percent right now,
06:59then I think for the next four years, Poland is going to be divided from its Western European allies.
07:07And we might have another four to eight years where Poland once again is not a part of this core group of Western Europeans
07:16that are pushing for greater integration, for greater European defense investment and aid to Ukraine.
07:24That might not last for more than four years or maybe eight years.
07:28So I think that in the foreseeable future, we'll be witnessing a Poland that is once very pro-European
07:34and then at times not so much in the core group.
Be the first to comment