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Interview with Tobias Belgrano, Political Consultant about national legislative elections in Argentina. teleSUR

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00:00To go further into this topic and better understand what is happening in Argentina,
00:04what is at stake at this midterm elections, we receive now Tobias Belgrano, political consultant.
00:10Thank you, Tobias, for joining us here in From the South.
00:14Hi, thank you for inviting me.
00:16So, Tobias, the polling stations have closed.
00:19So, what are your first impressions on this election day?
00:23How did it go?
00:25So, this election was quite particular in many aspects.
00:29Initially, there was a change in the way of voting.
00:32We traditionally voted with the party ballot.
00:38Now, it has changed to a unique ballot.
00:40So, every voter has to choose a candidate by selecting it with a cross with a pen.
00:46And this is quite new for Argentinian traditional electoral system, which has been switched.
00:52This change has made the initial previous results.
00:59I mean, what we call the previous results that the media informed before, the official results,
01:08been a little bit dizzy.
01:09Yeah, we were not quite clear of the tendency.
01:12However, there is a general sensation in all the media and all the previous results that we're receiving
01:18that the libertarians have improved their electoral expectations in many provinces,
01:27such as Santa Fe or Córdoba, where there were a third party competing of the local governors,
01:36which was called United Provinces, that included Córdoba and Santa Fe governors.
01:41And they seem to be losing the election against the libertarians.
01:48So, that's what the general sensation is, that the election was polarized and nationalized
01:54instead of being more local, as it was in 2023, for example.
01:58So, it seems that these, plus the low levels of participation, have benefited the libertarians
02:06in this sense.
02:07So, it seems that we are having a more polarized election, where there's a slight advantage for
02:15the libertarians.
02:16We have, which in their, right now, in their party bunker, they are being, showing themselves
02:21as very optimist.
02:22The president's sister, Karina Milei, has shown herself, and even she has spoken, which is
02:29something that she traditionally never does.
02:32So, there is a general sensation that the libertarians might be seeing a slight victory
02:37in the national level, which was their initial intention, especially to show to the investors
02:42and to the IMF, and especially to President Trump.
02:46Tobias, you were just talking about the narrative regarding these results, the importance for the
02:51government to show a good result in front of investors, also in front of the U.S., that
02:58had been a major partner with a very controversial pact and direct interference in the past week.
03:04The past weeks have been of a lot of instability, political and economical.
03:10How do you think this week will open as of tomorrow?
03:14So, there are some tendencies, as I was mentioning, as we have some tendencies in the political
03:21area.
03:21There are also some signals in the economic arena, the USDT or USDC, which is the cryptocurrency
03:28that is paired with the U.S. dollar and its exchange in Argentinian pesos, has been reduced.
03:36So, that means that it seems the investors are seeing some tendencies in favor of the libertarians
03:44or some of the market sees the possibility of a libertarian triumph.
03:48So, it seems to be in the economic arena that we might have a little monetary summer in Argentina,
04:00our economic summer in Argentina, which is how we call a good moment in the economy, at least
04:07from Monday onwards, at least in the financial arena.
04:10We still have to see what happens with the day-to-day microeconomy for people, which is
04:17the main problem and what the opposition is claiming for against the libertarian administration.
04:22Now, Tobias, let's recall also to our audience, we've been talking about this election being
04:28a very hard election to translate in terms of the results to explain outside of Argentina
04:35what it means to be the general winner or who wins in which district.
04:40We are seeing what we're looking at is the future composition of the Congress and whatever
04:46the outcome, the government will have to face just a series of negotiations in order to see
04:53how the situation stabilizes.
04:56So, what is the climate on the streets?
04:59We've also been seeing a lot of demonstrations in the past month, also a lot of legislative defeats
05:09for the president as well.
05:11How do you think that the coming months are going to be in that scenario?
05:16So, first of all, clarifying a little bit about the general election, as you were asking.
05:25Argentinian Congress, it's made of small elections on each province.
05:29Each province makes their elections for deputies and senators.
05:33The general sensation is that in Buenos Aires province, which was the big hit in September
05:407 for the peronism, and it was the surprise against the Javier Milay program.
05:46Economic program, and we watched what it caused the general economic instability since September
05:52until recently this week.
05:55It seems that the peronism has become a very urban phenomenon, especially in the big cities,
06:05especially in Buenos Aires City and in the Buenos Aires province.
06:09There is a general view that in the Buenos Aires City election for peronism was quite successful,
06:16more than expected.
06:17I mean, the libertarians in their main district, which is when Buenos Aires City were not able
06:24to be so successful as they were in the past.
06:27So, there is the rumor, at least from what they are saying, of the previous results.
06:31Results will be published at 9 o'clock.
06:35The rumor is that the peronism made a great election in Buenos Aires City.
06:40So, we are seeing a peronism that is becoming a more urban phenomenon rather than a provincial
06:48phenomenon, which is what's more traditional, where more traditional peronism was.
06:53So, this is a new change in how peronism is perceived.
06:57Of course, peronism was always a Buenos Aires urban areas phenomenon, but it seems that that
07:03might be concentrating there.
07:04And there's a change, especially for the middle-class voters in the big cities such as Buenos Aires City.
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