- 4 months ago
The momentum in Indian equities will now shift toward home-focused themes, with defence, railways and other domestic sectors expected to lead market performance, expert says.
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00:00good afternoon and welcome to the market closing show this is a collab show between business today
00:19and india today television i'm sakshi batra this is 3 p.m show and we are here to get you all the
00:23market closing action first up let's take a look at what's hot in the world of corporate and the
00:28financial space diwali dhamaka on d street nifty bank has hit a record high level it has jumped
00:3710 000 points from the 2025 lows while nifty has climbed to a one-year peak trading near 25 700
00:45mark with fmcg and consumer durables leading it and metal sectors however have lacked
00:51the bull run in precious metals continues right ahead of dhantera's mcx gold and silver have hit
01:02fresh record highs even today in new delhi the 24 carat gold now trades at 1.3 lakh rupees per 10
01:09grams silver is near 1.92 lakh rupees per kilogram approaching the two lakh rupee levels milestone
01:14reliance industries shares have risen one percent higher right ahead of its q2 f5 26 results this
01:26evening investors await updates on possible geo ipo the timelines on that front reliance consumer
01:34demerger and the oil to chemicals margin recovery investech brokerage firm has initiated coverage on
01:40reliance industries right on the day of the earnings with a buy call and an 1890 rupees target
01:46price for the stock implying a 30 percent upside from the current levels
01:50defense stocks also soar as tejas mark one takes its first flight in nashik not just hal and bharat
01:59electronics but even bharat dynamics in the private sector some players like data patterns mtr technologies
02:06bdl and zen technologies even astra microwave are up about up to four percent and five percent each
02:13there are reports that hl is actively collaborating with private players to increase the dangerous output
02:21reports now indicate coca-cola is set to consider a one billion dollar ipo of its indian bottling unit
02:33hindustan coca-cola beverages the move aims to unlock value expand market presence and offer local
02:40investors a stake in the company reflecting confidence in india's growing beverage market
02:46viewers let's straight away look at how the markets are trading right ahead of diwali this is the
02:57last trading session uh before diwali in fact monday is diwali but that day the markets are open for
03:03the full day uh but more trading happens on tuesday 25 716 despite some choppiness at higher levels we are
03:12back about half odd percent higher in trade on the nifty it's the fmcg pharma and the auto sectors that
03:18are driving the move we're also looking at some banks that are pulling up higher but what is dragged
03:23metals have given up some of their gains psu banks are down you have some mid and small cap losers
03:28at this point in type as well so the broader markets have slipped in trade at this closing hour
03:33right now when we talk about the top gainers on the nifty you have asian pains as the one that has
03:39moved up beyond 2500 levels four percent higher in trade m&m has also moved up 2.4 percent up bharati
03:46airtel is up by about two percent max healthcare itc these are the other top movers on the nifty right now
03:51on the laggard side well you have the it names wipro hcl tech even names like infosys that's down
03:57eternal has also given up some gains and tata steel is also down in trade among the top losers in trade
04:03right now let's welcome our guest on board but mr chakri lokria the cio of equities at lgt wealth is
04:09now joining in warm welcome to you chakri good to have you with us season's greetings happy dhantiras
04:14and diwali to you right in advance to your team members as well as your family members at large we hope
04:20that this year turns out to be a super profitable one for you thus far um help me with your take last
04:25couple of sessions finally the d street spirit is back and aligning with the festivities back home in
04:31india help me understand what's your take the fis are also looking at it positively so what what's
04:36changing in the d street sentiment right now you know happy diwali to you and to all your viewers and
04:42i do hope that this new year will be a good year for indian equities and in terms of the market where
04:50we're positioned right now is we are in a if you look at banks have reported a beginning to report
04:55good earnings results it is a beginning to report good earnings results and so we kind of tell you
05:02that you know all this turmoil global turmoil tariff turmoil that we faced is kind of now in the in
05:09the numbers so basically we should start looking towards the next quarter for an uptick in earnings
05:14and therefore that will mark the beginning of the fis coming back to india absolutely now chakri
05:21help me understand when it comes to the new somewhat year that begins starting tuesday what are you
05:26expecting for the markets we've had a long underperformance consolidation at play this year
05:32uh you know flat returns for investors and uh you know those who had been big on gold and silver
05:37have been cheering away to the bank but equity investors have had a lot of disappointment so
05:43but going forward into the new year what do you expect for indian equities i think going forward into
05:49the new year it's the domestic sectors which will benefit domestic industries such as you know consumer
05:55discretionary auto hospitals these kind of companies are not subject to any global tariff pressures
06:03and after the gst cut and the income tax cut their earnings will grow now faster and therefore deliver
06:10strong returns going into the next year and likewise you know some of the global sectors like metals
06:16they are not impacted by the tariffs and so they will also grow faster because there is a recovery
06:22that's happening in europe as well as in the u.s so i think we need to construct a portfolio which
06:28is domestic facing and those select metal names absolutely since you talk about tariffs and chakri
06:36that has been one of the biggest pain points for equities this time around you know the volatile
06:41sentiment that has reacted to every tweet every statement that has come in from the u.s what's your
06:46suggestion um you know for uh this new year and you know amidst these uncertainties what's the best way
06:53to approach the equities then i think the best way to approach the uncertainty is to look at all the
07:00what we call is the new india companies the new india companies are many of them are domestically
07:06focused whether it is defense railways or the more secular growth ones like automobile auto
07:15ancillaries tire companies and these are secular growth they will benefit from the gst cut as well as
07:21income tax cut and they don't have and they have less of an export related worries to think about
07:29then on the other hand you know even the staples now given that they have a good monsoon they will
07:35also start benefiting i think that's the way that we look at it okay in fact when we're talking about
07:41the external environment and the challenges that india has been facing because of a lot of policy changes
07:47let me um you know ask all our viewers to pay attention to um commerce minister piyush kohal who's
07:52once again emphasized the need for diversity as far as supply chains are concerned in his second address
07:58to an industry association in many day in as many days um the minister has reiterated that india could
08:04no longer be overly dependent on one country let's listen into what he had to say we must all assess
08:13our respective supply chains we must see whether we are overtly dependent on any particular geography
08:22need not be one country what what you are all thinking of it could be it could be a dependence let's say
08:29on a western country but on any product if we are overtly dependent on any one country you are prone to
08:38vulnerability particularly in a world where trade is being used as a weapon we've seen the weaponization
08:47of trade we've seen the weaponization of supply chains and therefore it's important that we all assess our
08:53supply chains and make them more robust wherever possible self-sufficient and self-reliant
09:00uh chakri coming back to uh the conversation that we were doing you know you've been highlighting
09:06that domestic focus industries will be better bet at this point in time when we are grappling with
09:10a lot of uncertainties at large uh the government is also trying to explore where we can reduce our
09:16dependence to one country uh so that we continue to protect a lot of our indian oriented sectors and
09:21even our exports to large extent and continue an unabated supply chain uh you know with all of these
09:27challenges uh you know how are you looking at this what do you think an investor needs to keep in mind when
09:33one needs to know that you know the government is maneuvering through all these challenges and
09:37really redefining reimagining their own relationships their own strategies when it comes to trade
09:43you're absolutely right and in fact you know from what uh just had to say there is a
09:48de-globalization that india needs to think of and so which means it is to focus on oneself
09:55and and and therefore you know the domestic consumption and domestic production and domestic
09:59manufacturing so within the domestic manufacturing you know it's a industrials is a big sector you
10:06know nation building roads bridges dams so companies which do that like you know lnt nbcc look at that
10:14second the difference in the railways you know you need to transport oneself you need to protect the nation
10:20and export as well so that's where the defense i think is a sector which will grow very well and then
10:27consumption you know india is now reaching the point where the the consumption is going beyond the
10:33daily bread and bread and butter or rather the roti of the everyday so therefore consumption is very
10:40important consumption is very important and defense also your positive one we were just marking out in
10:45our top news today they just mark one uh with the first flight and how most of the defense stocks are
10:50also rallying in trade um jakri if you could pencil in uh for us a broad picture on how to choose and how to
10:56go about selecting and going forward with your defense focus last time around when we had seen
11:01a super bowl rally in the defense stocks most of investors missed that up move they entered only at
11:06the peak of the rally thereafter the stock and within the sector we've seen a long-drawn consolidation
11:12at large yet off late we are again seeing government's focus more orders coming in redefining the
11:18strategies there so should one be aggressively invested in defense should one be staggered by way of maybe
11:24mutual fund sip investments should one have just a select few stocks in the portfolio how are you
11:29advising clients you know defense as a secular sector will grow for all the next several years
11:37in fact europe has a plan to spend nearly two to five percent of its gdp on defense so which means
11:43that you know indian defense companies manufacturing for india as well as for the world will benefit
11:48whether it's abharat electronics or hindustan aeronautics they're the leaders so clearly one should
11:54invest in the leaders as well as emerging companies like solar industries or data patterns because
12:00they're coming up with new technologies new uh kinds of equipment which will benefit so it's a
12:06combination of both the leaders as well as emerging leaders sure uh you know we are also in the midst of
12:13uh the earnings season and today we will also have reliance industries report its numbers as well
12:19so the action is only picking up pace saturday we will have all the major banks report htfc bank has
12:24been consistently moving up ahead of its earnings last four days as well um you know nearing its record
12:30high level so all of this is coming up in focus but let me first ask you chakri to break down for
12:35us what has happened thus far from the big four five it names that we have got the earnings of what has your
12:40understanding been and from the overall earning season just at the very beginning uh in any thoughts
12:46there you know the earning season as we went into the quarter was a subdued note because of all the
12:51uncertainty and therefore one expectation was about a six to eight percent on its growth and even more
12:58subdued for the exporter in the links like it but contrary to expectations it has started doing much better
13:05than expectation despite the h1b problems and despite the tariff problems so therefore you
13:12know they have kind of bottomed up and second the domestic sectors are clearly will benefit
13:16and the gsc like sector that we've spoken about they will all start to see and earnings better than
13:23expected results in the next spot okay let's talk about reliance industries for a bit viewers uh today is
13:29when in the evening after the market hours we will get to see reliance industries the largest listed
13:34company on the stock market exchanges uh by market capitalization um will be reporting its numbers
13:39right now you can see the stock up by one point three odd percent there's been slight choppiness but
13:43it's been holding up remember this is after um the market sentiment has been pretty much weak in this
13:48entire q2 and the company has also seen a 1.8 lakh crore rupees wiping off from its market cap since q1
13:54as well in the last quarter alone now investors um also are looking forward to a strong performance
14:00that's expected from geo and retail this time around there's also an expectation of 5 million
14:05new geo subscribers healthy ebitda growth as well investors will also be watching out for uh any
14:11strategic announcements or details when it comes to the initial announcement of geo ipo and reliance
14:16consumer de-merger any progress in the new energy businesses as well so those will be the key metrics
14:21that one should be definitely watching out for um chakri uh what are you watching out for ril in this
14:26quarter and what's your take ahead of earnings um on the stock price you know as you rightly
14:32mentioned it is clearly not only the largest company but also the leader and it's a great combination
14:37of both old world businesses and new age businesses and the new age businesses are the
14:42new energy where significant amount of value will unfold in the coming years and then their existing
14:49businesses retail with the gst cuts etc will benefit as traditional business of oil and gas
14:55will kind of now start growing and therefore if you add up all these various businesses together i
15:01think reliance industries is very well positioned and with the planned ipos adding a further fill up
15:07to the stock okay got that so that's as far as the largest listed company is concerned and the
15:12expectations on the earnings front of course tonight is when we will decode the earnings and of course give
15:17you more details on it on business today television so stay tuned for that as well but viewers we've been
15:22talking about uh dhunteras as uh the occasion tomorrow the biggest occasion for and the auspicious
15:29occasion where people go ahead and buy gold and silver items for themselves considering it very very
15:34auspicious but remember this is the time when on dhunteras gold and silver prices have already scaled
15:41up a newer record high levels on an everyday basis in the run-up to dhunteras as well on our dhunteras special
15:47conversation earlier i spoke to top commodity experts about the bull run in gold and silver right
15:53ahead and what are the price targets till next diwali and dhunteras that we could expect on these
15:58precious metals and whether the rally will sustain so let's listen in to that conversation
16:05how are you looking at this unstoppable rally in gold and silver and also will this continue post
16:11than teras and diwali or will there be some profit taking there now traditionally we have viewed gold
16:18as a consumption asset but now it is a trusted financial investment so while physical gold has
16:23remained deeply rooted in india's culture but then we are seeing a noticeable shift now the millennials
16:29are driving this change wherein they are investing big time into gold through etfs or through mutual funds
16:35or digital gold so i think this there is a big shift here in terms of the investment culture that we
16:41are seeing in india and globally also investors are turning up to gold with the strong inflows that we
16:47have seen in global etfs so there have been a lot of factors which have fueled this rally this year
16:53it's an era marked by tariff war the recent shutdown of the u.s government the geopolitical risk
17:00and the monetary easing cycle of the u.s fed apart from that there it's been supplemented by the strong
17:07buying from central banks which have continued for last four years where then they have been buying
17:12upward of thousand tons and then this year also the figures are likely to be more than thousand tons so
17:16if i just talk about one figure earlier prior to 2022 central banks were buying just 500 to 600 tons
17:23but then for last four years once the russia's dollar assets were frozen in 2022 there has been
17:29eroding confidence in dollars so we are seeing a tectonic shift across continents dollar is losing
17:35its dominance and it's becoming a multipolar world so this is a major shift which is likely to continue in
17:42years to come when it comes to this entire new somewhat years expectation on gold and silver what are
17:48the targets even beyond these more than uh you know expectation kind of levels that we are actually
17:54seeing at this point in time what is your expectation for the new somewhat where are you seeing gold and
17:59silver headed sachi i see gold prices heading higher towards dollar 4770 to dollar 4900 per ounce
18:06and if i convert it into domestic market i see levels of 145 to 150 so maybe this could be seen this
18:13year itself because we have been revising our targets multiple times i think nobody was expecting
18:19this kind of a move in this year only my targets for next year have already been achieved but yes
18:24now my targets are 1,45 000 to 1,50 000 but yes with the caveat probably they could be achieved by the
18:30end of this year itself though i'm looking at them for the next year there could be a break in between
18:34in this rally because it's already been a spectacular rally it's a parabolic move so there could be some profit
18:40booking after diwali but yes the overall trend still continues let me also ask mr sen because he's
18:47the one who is actually witnessing the demand on ground so if we look at the you know footfalls of
18:54the stores uh in the current last 10 15 days i must say that you know at these high level gold prices
19:01also we have seen almost uh two and a half to three times jump in terms of footfalls so that is
19:07a very good sign that consumers at these levels are also continuing their you know interest towards
19:13gold or silver and it must be because it has given them the returns for all the gold and silver that
19:18they have been buying over so many many years so i think that they should be the happiest people today
19:24as we see the gold and silver prices rising in terms of the expectation of sales in terms of the uh value
19:30terms we are quite i think as an industry expecting a 20 25 percent rise in terms of value but at the same
19:37time we must you know the reality is that prices are high consumers have increased their budgets but
19:43not to the extent of the jump in price rise so in terms of volumes we will see a dip that people are
19:49looking for more lighter weight jewelry maybe people are looking at lower caratage so 18 carat 14 carat
19:559 carat whether it is plain gold or diamonds uh people are looking at jewelry that looks heavy
20:00waste light so so we will see about a 15 percent odd fall in terms of volume but in terms of value with
20:07the records that are being broken every day uh we are expecting a 20 okay there you have it and you
20:15can of course watch this entire conversation on business today chakri coming back to you gold and
20:20silver outperformed the nifty by a huge margin this this year uh but up until the next uh somewhat by
20:28the time the same time we talk to you do you think equities will have covered up a lot of this ground
20:35you know equities were are set because you know they're kind of underperformed this year so they're
20:39expected to do well going to the next year but gold as an asset class will continue to remain very important
20:45okay what about silver do you think that's now featuring in the core of the investment portfolios
20:51as well or is it just an aberration and it will still remain a very volatile class and therefore
20:57managers like yours will be very careful with the silver moves even now all metals commodities are
21:04very volatile so we need to be careful of that but you know as a as a pack i think you know it'll do well
21:10because for many reasons we even governments are buying gold and silver okay so chakri help me
21:16understand you know what are you advising clients what have you changed for them in their portfolios
21:21has there been any rejig of sorts uh you know for the next fiscal year and the next summer as well what
21:27what is your uh understanding of where should one exit from and what should one completely be looking into
21:33i think for the next summer the focus is clearly on domestic cyclical so in all industrials consumer
21:41discretionary durables whether you want to buy a car ac tv you know all durables like that
21:47as well as some select mining companies uh so metals so i think a combination of these two together
21:55we think is where the the returns will be made okay god that since we're talking about
22:01uh the next somewhat and what to expect in business today is again diwali special as markets are
22:07gearing up for the next leg of rally investors are looking at which sectors could probably take the
22:12lead um earlier business today group's editor um mr siddharth arabi also spoke to rajiv thakkar
22:18the cio and director of ppfas mutual fund to discuss where he sees the next big opportunities let's listen
22:25into that what do you think will be uh the key sectors to watch out for even for those who are
22:36investing in the markets through uh fund managers like you so uh one sector which hasn't really
22:44participated in the uh up more or where valuations as compared to the historical averages look reasonable
22:52has been the banking space here uh sentiment has not been that great i.t services the consensus opinion
23:02is that a lot of headwinds uh global captives are coming here uh effect of ai on the amount of work
23:11that will be there uh and resultant impact on margins etc uh growth rates have been very very subdued
23:18however uh in the past as well we have seen the sector go through uh cycles of uh cycles where some
23:27periods are very very high growth and some periods where the growth is subdued so i think these two
23:33spaces uh look reasonably okay to uh identify individual opportunities uh select psu or utility kind of
23:44names uh look reasonable uh after the gst cuts uh auto sector has been seeing a good amount of volume
23:53growth however one has to finally uh look at the individual company valuations a lot of these things
24:01that i am talking about things like improved demand in auto is probably already reflected in the uh stock
24:08prices so uh one has to be selective and wait for the right opportunity to come by
24:16all right viewers let's start looking at how the markets are shutting shop now a minute to go before
24:20we end the day the nifty is about half odd percent higher in trade so you have seen smart moves today
24:2525 700 is with us towards the closing edition of uh the markets today you know 0.5 percent up in trade
24:33what supported the sentiments is fmcg pharma auto uh kind of sectors that have all pulled up in trade
24:39today we've also seen financials definitely move up in trade towards uh in today's session what we've
24:45seen dragging today in fact is the metals that have given up some gains we've also seen psu banks that
24:51have dragged a bit as well the broader markets mid and the small caps also end with losses in today's
24:56trading session as well let's also look at how the nifty gainers um are placed up right in the
25:02uh closing edition so we have asian paints right at the top 25 000 uh 2510 odd levels can be seen on
25:09this one four percent of a rally on this one you can also see names like m&m bharti etel max health
25:14care tata consumer products as among those all top five movers that we are looking into the market's
25:19top tracks clearly like i said before at the beginning of this show uh it's the it pack that
25:24is giving up some gains we're pro emphasis hcl tech tech mahindra they're all down in trade today
25:29uh anywhere between one and a half to two and a half odd percent kind of losses even zomato
25:34is looking at with some losses but this is the point that we should be getting back with our
25:37conversation with chakri now chakri let's talk about zomato that's an interesting one we've talked a lot
25:42about uh uh this uh stock also even before um what's your thought um earnings came in we've seen
25:49blink it performance again continuing on the positive side from the quick commerce uh space at these
25:54prices also would you be a buyer in uh eternal you know zomato is actually well placed as a market
26:01leader and of course swiggy is right behind it so i would be buyer in both the companies because one a
26:07their businesses are growing really fast and second there is also a sense of you know looking at
26:12profitability so i think clearly would be buyer of both okay clearly would be a buyer of both right now
26:20when we talk about uh the other companies beyond both sumato and swiggy from the quick commerce space
26:26what other companies are coming onto your radar from the tech space do you think this has more
26:29legs to go in the new summer too you know if you stick with new new edge technology when companies
26:36like nika because you know there is a broadening the okay in fashion industry is a online fashion
26:42industry is become very is growing very fast and also with the gsc cuts yeah there is a broader
26:49market that they're addressing to and it is secular which will stand for a longer time so i think
26:55online as a space will continue to grow very well in the coming years okay got that let me now just go
27:03on to our queries that we are getting from our viewers uh chakri for you we have our first query
27:08from our viewer ratan singh from jaipur uh he wants to know should i invest in defense stocks and will
27:13this rally in the sector continue chakri what would your advice be for ratan singh
27:18in the defense is clearly a very valuable sector it's a secular sector so one should invest for
27:23the longer term not to try to make a quick trade out of it and clearly over the let's say three to
27:29five years term there is really a very valuable sector okay let me also look at another query that
27:36we have this is from sagar sharma from jimshetpur says should i invest in physical gold and silver or
27:42should i opt for etfs instead uh well at these prices also people are looking at participating in
27:49the gold and silver rally either via physical or etf space uh in fact i was speaking to one of our
27:55experts who said uh from quantum amc that this is an unprecedented year where we have seen etf flows
28:01surpass any kind of historic metric uh how are you looking at uh you know the gold and silver
28:07investments what is the best way to go forward etfs are far more secure digital easier to store
28:14easier to buy and sell and therefore so whether it is a physical commodity or etf both as an asset
28:21class will do very well with short-term volatility given that they've gone up so much in a very short
28:27period of time but longer term clearly yes longer term clearly yes all right on that note takri thank you
28:33so much for being with us and of course helping all our viewers with an insight across the board
28:38uh from equities to gold and silver as well um remember viewers we are in the run-up to diwali in
28:44case you are looking forward to participating this time around for the first time for india today viewers
28:50we're going to be getting the muhara trading live as well so this diwali celebrate prosperity with
28:55business today television's muhara trading live summer 2082 from gold and silver to stocks and
29:02portfolios get all the market insights and expert insights to plan to profit and to prosper join us
29:08on october 21st from 1 30 pm to 3 pm as top market masters decode the festive market mood catch muhara
29:15trading live on india today as well as across all business today television and digital platforms
29:20stay tuned for that many thanks for tuning in onto this edition
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