00:00Let's bring into the conversation Marike Ritoff, lecturer in Latin American politics at the University of Liverpool.
00:05Thank you so much for joining us, Marike.
00:07We're talking about the possibility of regime change.
00:11How long is it before we actually hear this openly?
00:16So, President Trump has indicated that regime change is one of the options,
00:24although it is unclear how that will happen exactly.
00:30And this would involve either President Maduro resigning voluntarily, which I think is unlikely to happen,
00:41or it would involve a negotiated exit where Maduro will be under pressure about these measures
00:49to leave and make space for another government.
00:56And a further scenario could be that the U.S. escalates this situation, which has also been signalled by President Trump and Marco Rubio as an option.
01:11We talk about escalation, and I just want to take us back to the seizure of this vessel, the Skipper.
01:18It's now at the U.S. port, well, it's heading there at least.
01:22And the United States also says it's going to be taking the oil from it, using legal means.
01:27But Maduro has called this international piracy.
01:30Where do you stand?
01:31So, I also saw the note that this ship had been sanctioned, so the U.S. would have been legitimately capturing it.
01:47But it is also a move away from the war on drugs argument that the U.S. government used for the boat strikes.
01:59And the capture of this tanker, this oil tanker, is actually affecting, symbolically,
02:09it's also actually Venezuela's major export product, which is oil.
02:15So, it looks like the sanctions are spreading from the war on drugs, the closure of Venezuela's airspace,
02:23to potentially hurting Venezuela's economy.
02:29The image of the helicopters lowering troops on the ship is also very symbolic,
02:37because it signals that this is something that could potentially happen elsewhere.
02:42And the boat strikes so far have been taken from the air rather than directly on board a ship or on land.
02:52Well, that leads me to my next question, because, as you say, there is an opportunity for setting a precedent here.
02:59Do you think it could in terms of targeting foreign oil exports in other sanctioned countries?
03:04Yes. So, the economic sanctions, oil sanctions, are very important for Venezuela in this respect.
03:15Although the U.S. has also continued trading in all of Venezuela.
03:21And for a country that depends so heavily on oil exports, this could undermine Maduro.
03:30In terms of this kind of vessel, we've touched on it.
03:35It is part of the shadow fleet, which exports oil to other nations like Iran, Russia, China.
03:40These are Venezuela's traditional economic allies.
03:44How effective would the strategy be in terms of curtailing that and making sure that these oil exports don't go out?
03:51Because we have already seen some 80 ships who were supposed to dock in Venezuela say,
03:56hang on a minute, I don't think right now is the right time.
03:58We also could be under these sanctions now.
04:03Yes, of course, Venezuela also trades oil with countries like Cuba, Russia.
04:10And there is a concern, of course, that trade props up, the Russian government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
04:26So, I can also see that this has wider implications for Venezuela's connections to these countries,
04:34which are a major concern for the U.S. government.
04:39But at the same time, of course, there are questions about the U.S. government's stance towards Russia and Ukraine itself.
04:50And an invasion, for example, would be an invasion in Venezuela,
04:56which would be a paradox compared to support for Russia in the Ukrainian case.
05:05And that leads me to just a final point.
05:08Maria Corina Machado, the opposition leader in hiding, has now resurfaced for a Nobel Prize and she called it decisive.
05:15But surely there is an argument to be made for Venezuela maintaining its sovereignty,
05:20despite the U.S. putting pressure on the regime of Nicolas Maduro.
05:23Well, that is certainly the Latin American and the Brazilian position that the U.S. should not be interfering in Venezuelan domestic politics
05:37and should instead aim for a democratic solution or democratic elections overseen by international observers
05:46compared to the U.S. compared to the previous election in 2024.
05:53And Edmundo Gonzalez is seen as the intended successor by several countries,
06:04seen as the person who legitimately won the elections in 2024.
06:09And Machado's very high international profile after winning the Nobel Peace Prize means that the democratic legitimacy card is one being played here.
06:26In the Latin American case, countries like Brazil oppose the regime change created by forces from abroad, like the United States.
06:42So a multilateral diplomatic solution is another option,
06:48but increasingly unlikely of the U.S. military presence off the coast of Venezuela.
06:56And the escalation is certainly continuing there in the region.
07:00Mirka Ritsoff, thank you so much for joining us from the University of Liverpool.
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