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  • 4 hours ago
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00:00if i'm atlanta coming off the bye i need to be able to run on this bills team i want nothing to
00:06do with a shootout against josh allen and this offense like i need josh allen to stay on the
00:12sidelines as long as humanly possible here so who can help make that happen or who should we fade in
00:18this game here with atlanta yeah bjohn robinson i was going to be the you know the big guy for
00:24the falcons they're going to be without darnell mooney so their passing game is just a little
00:26bit weaker as i've always said you know we get these premium running backs we're never getting
00:31a discount on their lines and you know even looking to robinson when it comes to rushing plus
00:35receiving that's about 110 so that does you know insulate you essentially from game script because
00:40if they do fall behind by the bills he will be involved in the passing game but again to your
00:44point joe they don't want to turn this into a 30 to 28 game or 31 28 they want to keep the ball out of
00:49josh allen's hands and you know doing so i think will eliminate some players in the past game and
00:54that's kyle pitt so i don't i i think kyle pitt's a good talent i continue to buy him year to year
00:58i just don't love him in this matchup the bills as a team they've allowed 123 receiving yards total
01:04to opposing tight ends in all five games this year they're actually very very good against opposing
01:08to opposing tight ends so let's take kyle pitts under his receiving problems sitting at 40 and a half
01:13you know he's gotten to 37 39 in a lot of these games but again if they're trying to keep the ball
01:18out of josh allen's hands that means they're gonna be running it just not a whole lot of passes to go
01:22around let's go game number two tonight tom chicago and washington that's an 8 15 start from
01:27the nation's capital some weather starting to creep in here but still the total people are buying into
01:31it 49 and a half and 50s in the marketplace but the side here for washington that look ahead line
01:36four and a half it's up to five and a half across the board as a favorite here how do we play this game
01:41tonight tom the weather obviously will impact things and if you are worried about the weather you
01:47don't want to be involved in props whatever it might be i would say simply just take the under
01:51just take the under expect a lower scoring game i know both defenses have had their issues at times
01:56this year but if you think the weather is going to impact things and we're going to see this total
01:59plummet throughout the day being at under 49 and a half is far better if it drops to 47 whatever it
02:04might be which isn't as good of a number obviously but when it comes to this game we have to impact we
02:10have to evaluate the impact of that terry mclaurin is not going to be playing for washington and when we
02:15look back to last week versus the chargers it's obviously just a one game sample size and it is the first
02:19game back for jane daniels after his injury so we have to also take that into account but when we see
02:2426 pass attempts for him and 11 targets went to debo samuel we are approaching a 50 target share so not
02:31looking at debo as a primary option in this offense i think would be a mistake so i like debo the fact
02:37that we're getting a sub 60 number on his receiving prop i think is absolutely fantastic so i think we have
02:42to be looking at over 59 and a half he is the guy for them in this passing offense zacherts is fine
02:48luke mccaffrey is fine none of these players should be reasonably taking targets away from him and then
02:53finally let's go to caleb williams over on his passing attempts i'm not sold on the bears rushing
02:59game i don't think it's very good i think deandre swift is just a league average running back and
03:03although the weather could play a part the quick pass attempts for caleb williams should be there so
03:08let's take him over that we have 35 30 28 and 37 pass attempts from him so we're roughly at this
03:14number but with the bad defense on the commander side of things quick passes with a healthy healthy
03:20receiving core for the the bears should put them in a good spot
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