Paul Taylor, Senior Visiting Fellow at the European Policy Centre, discussed the ongoing political turmoil in France and the reappointment of Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister. Taylor noted that a power struggle is unfolding between mainstream parties, reluctant to impose unpopular austerity measures, and President Emmanuel Macron, who may ultimately dissolve Parliament and call a snap election. The prospect of a far-right government emerging from such an election is causing concern across Europe and beyond. According to Taylor, Lecornu is likely to attempt forming a neutral, technocratic government that can make concessions to both the left and right in order to secure passage of the 2026 budget and avoid a snap vote. However, it remains uncertain whether these compromises will be enough to significantly reduce the budget deficit or reassure financial markets.
00:00Sarah Coates reporting for us from Paris there.
00:03Let's get more now with Paul Taylor, who's the visiting professor, senior visiting fellow, rather, at the European Policy Centre.
00:10Thank you very much, Paul, for joining us. Great to have you with us.
00:13What do you think is going on here?
00:16Sébastien Le Corneau reappointed just days after the government collapsed, saying himself his mission was over.
00:23I mean, what's going on? Was he really President Macron's only choice? What's the president thinking?
00:27I think that there's a massive game of chicken going on here, where the mainstream parties from the conservatives to the centre-left socialists
00:40don't want to take responsibility for the nasty spending cuts and tax increases that are necessary to get the budget deficit down, as your correspondent said.
00:50But they're also scared of President Macron dissolving parliament again and forcing them to have a snap parliamentary election in which they might be wiped out.
01:02So it's that fear that may just force them to support a budget put forward by Prime Minister Le Corneau.
01:13And he will sort of probably form a government as politically neutral as possible, with technocrats,
01:21perhaps one or two old-timers who no longer, you know, who have their political futures behind them
01:27and don't have ambitions for the 2027 presidential election.
01:32The French want contradictory things. They want stability. They also want another say.
01:38And increasingly, more than a third of them say that the far-right national rally should be given an opportunity to govern.
01:47They've never been in government before. And there's a feeling, well, everybody else has failed.
01:52Maybe it's their turn. But on the other hand, bringing the far-right into power in France would scare a lot of people in Europe and around the world.
02:01Indeed. And do you think that a snap election is inevitable? Is that possible quite soon?
02:07Well, I think that both President Macron and his party and the mainstream conservatives and the socialists want to avoid that, if possible.
02:16But it may come about anyway, if Mr. Le Corneau cannot find a set of compromises that everybody can be equally unhappy with,
02:26but allow to go through in the budget.
02:29That means he'll have to make some concession on suspending President Macron's unpopular pension reform rate
02:37that raises the retirement age from 62 to 64 gradually, maybe just delaying its implementation for the next phase.
02:47Then it will have to be something that involves raising taxes, particularly on high incomes and possibly on inherited wealth,
02:57something that's unpopular with the right, but is a demand of the socialists.
03:02Then there may be a question of agreeing to some wage rises because, you know,
03:08that's something which will be acceptable to the left and to the general public.
03:13But will it all of that add up to a significant cut in the budget deficit?
03:18That remains to be seen.
03:20And the financial markets, as your correspondent said, are getting increasingly worried.
03:25We have a couple of credit rating agencies that are due to pass judgment on France in the coming weeks.
03:31And if the country looks like it can't get a budget together and the debt continues to balloon,
03:38it's now 114 percent of gross domestic product and continuing to rise.
03:45And France is now having to pay for the first time this week, having to pay more than Italy,
03:51which used to be the sick man of Europe, to borrow in the financial markets.
03:56Paul, really appreciate your input today.
03:58Thank you so much for being with us.
03:59Paul Taylor, Senior Visiting Fellow at the European Policy Centre.
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