00:00This is Apropos.
00:03Months of political tensions here in France may be coming to a head.
00:07The far right is threatening to bring down Michel Barnier's minority government in a
00:12no-confidence vote as a row simmers over the budget.
00:16Under pressure from Marine Le Pen, the Prime Minister has announced a major concession,
00:21scrapping plans to introduce a €3bn tax on electricity in a bid to end a stand-off
00:27with the opposition.
00:28Laurent Bristecker has the details.
00:32Hoping to steer France's minority government out of a deepening political crisis, French
00:38Prime Minister Michel Barnier agreed Thursday to scrap plans for an unpopular electricity
00:44tax hike.
00:45Far-right National Rally leader Jordan Bardella welcomed the move, but warned Barnier only
00:51had a few days left to make even more concessions or risk the government's collapse.
00:57The Macron administration and the opposition have for weeks been locked in a tense stand-off
01:02over proposed budget cuts, which the government says are necessary to bring down France's
01:07deficit, but which have been widely criticised by the left and the far right.
01:13France's left-wing parties, which were left out of the ruling coalition despite coming
01:18out on top in September's snap elections, said they would seek a motion of no-confidence
01:23if Barnier tried to force the budget through.
01:26Mr Barnier met with the presidents of the socialists but rejected all their proposals.
01:32So if the government tries to force the budget through, there will be a no-confidence motion
01:38and I will vote for it.
01:40The far-right, which now holds the key to the prime minister's survival, has sought
01:45to capitalise on this position of strength to wring out fresh concessions.
01:50It's threatened to support the motion of no-confidence if the government didn't do more to curb immigration
01:56and lower taxes.
01:58For more on the tense political situation here in France, we're joined by Renaud Foucault,
02:04senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University in the UK.
02:09Good to have you with us on the programme this evening.
02:12Firstly, in your view, how much danger is Michel Barnier in here?
02:16At the moment, I think it's a very key point for him because Marine Le Pen is herself in
02:22a very difficult situation.
02:24We know that the government is a minority government that only exists because of the
02:29support of the far-right.
02:31But now, Marine Le Pen herself is threatened by a trial for embezzlement of public funds.
02:36So she might lose the right to run for the next presidential election.
02:40So she's now tempted to get as many concessions as possible because she knows that it's not
02:45such a bad outcome for her if the government falls, because then she will be at least in
02:49a position of opposition.
02:51And then on the left, which would be the alternative for Barnier, which would be to have some support
02:55from the centre-left, there have been some moves to try to make him alternative offers.
03:00But at the same time, they are still at the moment busy trying to cancel not only the
03:06pension reform of Emmanuel Macron, but their own pension reform of 2013.
03:10So there is no one who is ready at the moment to have a serious discussion on the budget.
03:16Michel Barnier had to cancel several of his moves to make his own party happy by cancelling
03:22some pension freezing, to make Emmanuel Macron's party happy by moving back on some of the
03:27tax breaks and to make Marine Le Pen happy by cancelling the electricity tax.
03:32So the budget, if it goes through, will already be a budget that is not very ambitious in
03:37bringing France back on track.
03:39And today, the cost of the debt for France is now higher than Greece, which might make
03:44them think twice.
03:45And when it comes to Marine Le Pen, you mentioned her earlier.
03:48She's on trial over charges of embezzlement.
03:50You say the best way for her to survive is probably going to be by voting against the
03:56government in a no-confidence motion.
03:59Is that what you're expecting to see here next week?
04:03If she gets a lot of concessions from Barnier, it will be very difficult for her because
04:07she went supporting the government by saying, we are the responsible party.
04:12But the problem is the trial where she's at the moment going to likely be convicted.
04:17It's not something she can easily claim is the deep states punishing her.
04:22It's something that has happened quite a few times in France.
04:24Alain Juppé was a former prime minister.
04:27He had to cancel his plans to become, to run for president for something similar.
04:32François Bayrou was a very close ally of Emmanuel Macron, justice minister.
04:36His entire career was cancelled for something similar.
04:39Nicolas Sarkozy has been convicted to firm jail sentence for something relatively similar
04:45of taking money from his party to run a political campaign.
04:49So if she wants to have a strong claim that she's pursued by a deep state, she cannot
04:54be at the same time supporting the government.
04:56But no, Barnier is giving her a lot.
04:59Barnier is giving her this cancellation of energy tax.
05:02He's trying to move on something which is very contentious, which is support for medical
05:07aid for migrants.
05:08If he actually goes cancelling that, this is something very dangerous because this means
05:12that against pandemic, against contaminated diseases, there will be less protection simply
05:17because they would stop treating foreigners.
05:20But those are the kind of thing that at the moment he's giving because he really, really
05:24tries to keep this coalition with the far right alive.
05:28And do you expect to see further concessions over the weekend before that potential vote
05:33next week?
05:34For example, Jordan Bardella tweeting about how they want a moratorium on the creation
05:40of new taxes and tax increases generally, the far right also seeking an increase in
05:45state pensions.
05:46So do you think that Barnier is going to move further over the weekend?
05:51He will try to give the far right some more minutes, but those are kind of difficult because
05:56in the end, the only reason why Barnier is there is to bring France back on track for
06:01the budget.
06:02If everything he does is to throw more money at the problems, he's not solving anything.
06:07And if France has a financial collapse, even though the government survives, it's not particularly
06:12useful to him.
06:13So he might give them something, but maybe on other issues like on proportional representation
06:18or some tough discourse about migration, but giving increasing pensions today when the
06:24main problem of France is that so much money is taken by pensions, in particular by wealthy
06:29pensioners receiving state pensions, I think this would be another kind of suicide for
06:34him.
06:35Maybe the government wouldn't collapse, but the French economic situation would collapse.
06:40What does happen, though, if the government does collapse?
06:43Fresh elections can't be called until next summer at the earliest.
06:47Exactly.
06:48So there is no way to get an election now.
06:50So what would happen is that Macron would need to do what he hasn't done yet.
06:54And the centre-left would need to do the same, which is to talk to each other and try to
06:59find a way forward.
07:00So the crazy thing is that the result of the election was quite clear.
07:04It was not a victory of the left.
07:06It was not a victory of the centre.
07:07It was a victory of the Republican Front, everyone who decided to go together to block
07:13the far-right government.
07:15Michel Barnier, the prime minister, his party was not part of that.
07:18So it's really the socialist, the green, the centrist, and it could be the far-left, but
07:22they don't want to be part of that.
07:24But the problem is that right now there has been no attempt to really build that kind
07:29of coalition, which would be much more legitimate.
07:32So if the government falls, they would have to try to do that.
07:35But this means also that the left, who has been very slowly rebuilding, would have to
07:39accept to take responsibility for an extremely difficult budget situation.
07:44And coming back after a few years of slowly rebuilding and having as a first move to have
07:49to cut spending and raise tax, it's not something you want to do spontaneously as a party.
07:55And you mentioned the French president there.
07:57Will he come under a lot of pressure to resign if the government does in fact fall?
08:01We saw a poll this week saying that that is what two in three voters want, if that is
08:07to be what happens next week or in the coming weeks.
08:11Yeah, but there were similar polls before the last presidential election, and it still
08:16won't hit handsomely, because the question is that there is no particular alternative.
08:20If there was an election tomorrow, OK, maybe Le Pen would win, but maybe she might not
08:25be able to run anyway.
08:27But Macron as a president is not in charge of the government.
08:31There has been an election, there has been a result of that election.
08:35And the people who are now in parliament have one chance to show that parliamentary democracy
08:40can work.
08:41Macron resigning wouldn't change anything to that.
08:43And I don't think any reason for him to try to do that now.
08:48And when it comes to Michel Barnier, there's been a lot of talk as well about perhaps he's
08:51thinking about implementing the controversial Article 49.3 if it comes to it.
08:58We saw the previous government do that various times, particularly when it came to that very
09:02controversial pension reform.
09:05Do you think that Barnier is going to end up going down this path?
09:10He will most likely have to do that because the way the law has been amended and reamended
09:16and going through Senate and back, he has to go through that procedure.
09:20And that's why there will be next week a no confidence vote.
09:23So until that, the suspense is, will he give so much to Marine Le Pen that she cannot vote
09:29the no confidence and has to support him or will a no confidence vote go through?
09:34And if the no confidence vote goes through for Marine Le Pen, it means that she most
09:38likely will lead to a centre left government.
09:42And opposition figures, they've been arguing this week that in the event that the government
09:46does collapse, it could still present special laws to levy taxes.
09:52For example, in the new year, they could renew spending by decree to ensure that the country
09:58keeps moving, keeps working, that public servants are able to be paid.
10:02Is that something that is possible, do you believe?
10:06It is possible.
10:07It will depend by how much the financial markets panic.
10:10So one of the main example of what could happen is that if the government falls, the own member
10:15of parliament might lose their salary because the budget will not allow to pay them.
10:19But if there is a quick panic on the financial markets, and we are not very far away from
10:24that at the moment, if there is a panic in financial markets, you will see people moving
10:29very quickly because no one wants to be responsible for a collapse of the French economy.
10:34And I think there is a way for the French, even if the government falls, to stay resilient
10:38with that.
10:39But they would need to find eventually some form of majority of responsibility in parliament.
10:45And if it's not with the far right, it has to be with someone else.
10:48And it really though isn't in any party's interest to bring down the government at this
10:52point though, is it?
10:55Somehow maybe the far left dreams of the government falling to show themselves as the only alternative.
11:01Maybe somehow it's such a crazy moment for Marine Le Pen.
11:04Imagine the party is there for 50 years, for 50 years, it's her father and her keeping
11:09the tradition of running at every single presidential election and seeking power.
11:14And now they could touch it with their finger.
11:16It might be somebody else, Jordan Bardella, who get the job and maybe will betray her.
11:20So those people are maybe instead of panic and might try to make it fall.
11:26But all the others, the party of Michel Barnier, they are tiny in representation.
11:30They've never had so much power.
11:32There's no reason for it to fall.
11:34The centrists of Macron are in a very delicate situation.
11:37They were saved by miracle by the Republican front.
11:40The Socialist Party, the Green, they had very, very good results in the last election and
11:44they might lose everything if there is an election in a few months.
11:48So for them, there is a very strong incentive to continue.
11:51But they need to find a way to do that while not being completely unpopular, despite, again,
11:56the budgetary situation being very, very difficult.
12:00Either way, we're in for an interesting few months.
12:02Renaud, thank you so much for joining us.
12:04That's Renaud Foucault, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Lancaster University.
12:09Well, that's it from us for now.
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