Sunday Strategy_ Will PM Carney_s upcoming meeting with Trump reduce tariffs_

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00:00He is going to give it another go, heading down to Washington, D.C. on Monday, where he'll meet

00:04with U.S. President Donald Trump. The last D.C. meeting was cordial, but ultimately didn't secure

00:10an end to American tariffs on Canada. Will the Prime Minister have better luck this time? And

00:14what happens if he can't secure any trade relief? Our Sunday strategy session is here to dig into

00:20the political stakes. Kathleen Monk is a former NDP strategist and director of communications to

00:25the late Jack Layton. Corey tonight was Ontario Premier Doug Ford's campaign manager and former

00:29director of communications for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. And Scott Reid is a CTV News

00:33political analyst, as well as former communications director to Prime Minister Paul Martin. Hi,

00:36everybody. Great to see you. Kathleen, I'll start with you on that very central question. Like,

00:42politically, what are the stakes for the Prime Minister heading into this meeting?

00:45I think they're huge. You know, he's walking a tightrope. He has to somehow get some short-term

00:51relief. The tariffs are pounding away at workers, at sawmills, all throughout B.C. and throughout

00:57Canada, for that matter, and auto and aluminum, too. But he has to not give away too much, right?

01:02We're about to go into KUSMA or NAFTA 2.0 renegotiations. He can't give away too much

01:09sovereignty of Canada on defense, on energy. He can't hurt workers of the future. So the question

01:16is, like, what's a win for Carney next week in Washington? And it's puzzling, really, because,

01:21you know, he's going down there in a diplomatic effort, but he has to come back with some kind

01:25of deliverable. So would I want to be a part of Carney's team right now in writing that communique

01:31in advance? I don't think so. But he has to show something that is being done because he has let

01:36so much slip, not only the deadlines that he set for himself in the past, but he's given away things,

01:41right? He's rolled back the counter tariffs. He's removed the digital services tax. He's rolled

01:45backtrack, frankly, on the global minimum tax. So we have to see some wins soon. And I'm really

01:52concerned, frankly, about what that might mean in terms of overall sovereignty or any damage to the

01:57long-term view, which is the KUSMA negotiations. What do you think about that framing, Corey,

02:02that essentially, I take Kathleen's point, like, there has to be something tangible that you tell

02:08Canadians out of this meeting, I feel like, given what's happened over the last six months.

02:12At the same time, how careful does he have to be about what we end up ceding in exchange for that?

02:17Yeah, I think there's a very, very low likelihood that there's going to be a deal

02:22coming out of this meeting. I think it's extremely low. And any notion that there's going to be a good

02:28deal at the end of this for Canada, I think, has been dispelled over the past number of months,

02:33as we've seen what's happened with other countries, frankly. There isn't a tariff-free

02:41option, and I think available to Canada in terms of this negotiation. We're going to take what the

02:49U.S. gives us, I think, as sort of the, you know, what we should be looking at, because that's sort of

02:54how it's gone for everyone else. I think the big question will be, like, the KUSMA negotiations,

03:00that's not going to be settled. You know, we essentially have zero tariffs in all but the

03:06steel, aluminum, and obviously auto, softwood, lumber. So those sector-specific ones are bad,

03:13but, you know, we're running with the lowest tariffs of anyone in the world for everything else. I just

03:18don't think that's bound to last. I think KUSMA is not going to go as well as it did last time,

03:24and I see no path for that being settled at this meeting.

03:28Well, it kind of informs what I would characterize as, like, a highly risky environment for the

03:34prime minister and the federal government in this meeting, Scott, like, exactly what Scott,

03:38what Corey, pardon me, just laid out, right? Like, we know that no one's getting a tariff-free deal.

03:43Maybe if they're able to come home and say, hey, we've got, you know, tariffs on steel and aluminum

03:47reduced to 15 percent, that's at least some kind of deliverable. But on the broad strokes of it,

03:53like, who knows what the heck Trump is going to do, which feels like a very high-risk environment

03:58to head into. I agree with that strongly. Really, I mean, this, all the knuckles are white, man.

04:05Why is this meeting even occurring? You know, and I think a big part of its success,

04:11quote-unquote success, will have to do with what we hear in advance of the meeting and how the

04:16context for it is set. Because, you know, you guys are talking about, well, what can we expect

04:21from the meeting? What will the tangible gains be? What will the wins be? I think a lot of people are

04:25looking at it and saying, let's just hope we don't come away with further harms. Let's hope

04:29that the president, who appears to be particularly volatile these days, in the context of the U.S.

04:35government shutdown, as he seems to sort of be in a mood of acquiring and exercising power in every

04:41domain available within his eyesight, let's just hope that he doesn't seem to turn his negative,

04:46nasty gaze on us for this meeting. So why are we there? And so in many respects, I think the most

04:51important job is one that will happen prior to this meeting. I think, you know, we need to hear

04:57from the prime minister and his officials, right? We need a sense of what are the expectations?

05:04What is the message? What might we anticipate? Because some people are going to look at this

05:09meeting and say, well, it couldn't possibly occur unless there's some sort of breakthrough.

05:13Others might look at it and say, my God, does this mean that supply management is being surrendered?

05:17Or is it something else altogether? And we might see a deal on the Golden Dome, and so a defense

05:22partnership of some sort. I think some context in advance of the meeting, because expectations

05:27could be running rampant, and they could be running in multiple directions. So I really think

05:32there's a job of setting context that needs to happen prior to it. This government, you get the

05:37impression it almost lives off an abundant confidence in the prime minister's obvious capability

05:42and confidence. But that can't be the whole of your approach. You have to give people a sense

05:47of this is what's happening. This is why this meeting is occurring. This is what you shouldn't

05:51fear. This is what you might expect. And if you can exceed those expectations, great. But if you

05:56don't set them, you're sure as hell not going to exceed them. And particularly in a context like

06:00this, which feels very, very laden with risk, because the president seems exceptionally volatile these

06:06days.

06:08But to be blunt, Kathleen, if I look back over the past three months, let's say in the lead up

06:13to that August, the first deadline. And since there has been no effort on the part of the federal

06:18government to set that context publicly facing there has been. And I understand the impetus

06:23around not negotiating in public, you know, not disclosing all the details of what's been

06:27happening behind the scenes. But even this week, you know, the reason we found out that that

06:31Prime Minister Carney and President Trump had spoken is because a reporter shouted a question

06:35on the way into I think it was caucus. And the prime minister said, yes, we've spoken. And then

06:39when, how, why, like, none of those questions were answered. There was some testimony from

06:44Dominic LeBlanc, Minister LeBlanc this week before a committee that, again, indicated like

06:48a deal wasn't dead. But other than that, like, we know nothing about what's happened over the

06:52past few months.

06:54Yeah, it could either be what Scott just outlined, which is just the, you know, great confidence

06:57in the prime minister to solve this as the CEO kind of of Canada. And they have overwhelming

07:03and maybe naive confidence in his ability to settle this deal. Or they're just hunkering

07:07down. And the PMO is just hunkering down and can't actually or doesn't want to put out

07:12kind of what the litmus test for this trip will be. I mean, surely one of the ideal scenarios

07:17would be a de-escalation of the 232 tariffs, some kind of pause or a rollback or at least

07:23a period in which they could kind of further debate them. You know, just this past week on

07:27September 30th, they slapped another 10% on softwood lumber. I mean, that will have an impact

07:33on direct workers on mills across Canada. And what the only thing we can hope for is

07:37that actually corporate US, the corporate United States starts to speak about this because

07:43who buys most of our wood from BC and other provinces? It's Home Depot that's based in

07:48Georgia. So hopefully they'll push back and they'll say how this is hurting their bottom

07:52line. And that could actually urge, you know, Trump. I'm with Corey that I don't have a lot

07:57of faith that that will actually happen. But that is one of the venues in terms of applying

08:01pressure for Trump to actually take a pause and a beat on these 232 tariffs that are damaging,

08:06you know, our economy so greatly and hurting workers particularly.

08:11Is there a way that, you know, publicly facing, Corey, in your mind, they could set some sort

08:18of expectations ahead of this trip? Like, you know, if they were asking your advice, would

08:22it be to set some?

08:24I would set the expectation that nothing's going to happen. Like, this is going to be a conversation.

08:29Because I just don't see how there's an agreement coming out of this that's better than what the

08:37status quo is. You know, the endgame here is a renegotiation of KUSMA. Right now, as bad as the 232

08:44tariffs are for those affected sectors, it could be a heck of a lot worse. And for most countries in

08:50the world, it is a heck of a lot worse. And I don't think we should be, you know, speeding towards

08:55a deal that's worse than the status quo, which is, I think, almost inevitable if you're looking

09:01at comparables with other countries. So I just, I would be lowering expectations. Like, with respect

09:08to the Home Depots of the world, to Kathleen's point, you know, last time around, we had companies

09:14in the United States who were willing to stand up and push back against administration when it was in

09:18their interest to do so. We have seen absolutely no sign of that happening, this go around. You know,

09:24the friends and allies in Congress and the Senate, governors, across the board, they've been cowed

09:33into silence. And I really think we're on our own. It's a much more difficult situation than it was

09:38last time. And, you know, not to be too pessimistic, but I think it only gets worse from here.

09:44So then to your first question, Scott, like, what is the point? And we talk about strategy,

09:50we talk about politics, like, what is the point politically of going there on their turf to engage

09:56in that kind of conversation that could result in, you know, as little as both Kathleen and Corey just

10:03described? My guess, and to a certain degree, my point is, why should we be guessing? Like, I don't

10:11think this conversation is particularly helpful to the government. If I was in the government,

10:15I wouldn't be thrilled with it, because we're speculating wildly, even as we seem to think

10:19that it's unlikely we'll see some kind of an answer. We're still speculating about that possibility.

10:25You know, so why do I think they're going? My guess is the reality of the meeting is that it's come

10:31about because Trump has said, look, you know what, we've been talking by text, we've been sending

10:35telegrams and, you know, balloonograms to one another. Let's actually just meet face-to-face,

10:42come on down and let's talk about some stuff. So just like, we're making this too complicated,

10:47and we say, oh, what is the litmus test that can be set? What are the standards that might be set

10:52that we can, just tell us what the meeting is. Like, if the meeting is just, we've received an

10:56invitation, we want to talk this stuff through, we don't expect any announcements, we don't think any

11:00breakthroughs are going to occur. This is a necessary and important conversation. Keep things on track,

11:05particularly with Q's looming, then just say that. That sets, as Corey suggested,

11:10expectations, seller low, and that's probably the right place to be. Because, you know, leaving

11:16people to speculate as we are, that maybe there is a deal, or maybe there's a deal, but it's not good

11:22enough. That's a zero help to government. That's not where I would be, and that's not what I would

11:27tolerate in public. I'd get into the vacuum and fill it fast. Okay, I'll leave it on that. No one I'd

11:32rather, no three people I'd rather speculate with than the three of you. Thanks, everyone.

11:37Our Sunday strategy session, Kathleen Monk, Corey Tanike, and Scott Reed coming up. The federal

11:42government has promised the upcoming budget will include major investments, but also significant

11:46operational cuts are both possible. Former parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux and

11:50former top bureaucrat, clerk of the Privy Council, Michael Wernick, will join me together after a short break.

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