Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, speaking at the Kautilya Economic Enclave 2025, said India’s resilience will define its place in a turbulent world. With geopolitical tensions and shifting trade chains, she stressed India’s shock-absorbing strength, evolving influence, and proactive role in shaping global cooperation.
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00:00At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying.
00:05Sanctions, tariffs, and decoupling strategies are reshaping global supply chains.
00:14For India, these dynamics highlight both vulnerability and resilience.
00:21For developing countries, this is a necessity, not just a romantic aspiration.
00:27We cannot afford to be passive spectators.
00:32In a world where decisions elsewhere determine our destinies, we must be active participants,
00:41shaping outcomes where possible and preserving autonomy where necessary.
00:47Today, we find ourselves in a shifting global landscape that resembles a zero-sum approach,
00:55in part, a consequence of the failures and limitations of the era of globalization that preceded it.
01:06Good morning and welcome to this fourth edition in which the Institute of Economic Growth
01:14and the Ministry of Finance are together holding the fourth edition.
01:21And I thank Sri N. K. Singh for persistently building on edition after edition.
01:41The gathering and the domain of experts with whom he gets in touch and brings them over
01:53has absolutely meaningful participation and the outcomes have always been very useful
02:02useful for all of us to see where our next steps should lie.
02:07So in that regard, the fourth edition for me gives me the confidence that Indian policymaking
02:16is guided by a good churn at the conclave and the outcomes have not just helped in our policymaking,
02:26but also in holding global conferences and the G20 of 2023 stands out as a classic example where,
02:37with some hope, we were still able to get thinking heads and observers together to talk about the pressing issues
02:49issues as we saw then, which continue to be pressing issues today, of reforming the multilateral institutions.
03:00N. K. Singh did make an observation that further and further dilution of multilateral institutions
03:07is chiseling away, if I can say, or chipping away the confidence the global community had had that somehow we will be able to come around
03:20to strengthening these institutions because they were the ones which held out during times of need.
03:27However, with these thoughts at the back of our minds, let me formally give my thoughts here,
03:40which largely pertain to the global situation which a country like India, aspiring to take a twin-track approach
03:56to this seeking of prosperity, which has been long denied to us, not denied by anybody else, but denied by factors which didn't help us to project
04:09and move faster some of our own making and some global situations and the uncertainties.
04:17But today, Honorable Prime Minister has actually set the two tracks in motion, one being reaching by 2047 a position where you are able to say that you are a developed country,
04:34Vikasith Bharat. If that is one of the tracks, the other track is how do you reach that unless you are Atmanirbar,
04:45unless you are self-reliant. Largely, it does not for a moment mean that we want to shut our economy and make ourselves look inward.
04:57So if the twin track is ready before us and we will have to not go on a speed which in terms of numbers at four, at five, at five and a half of GDP,
05:11but reach eight percent of GDP is the one which can give us the speed to reach the destination by 2047.
05:20So with that, as a background largely, I would like to say that it gives me great pleasure to be here among such an esteemed gathering.
05:32And I would like to extend my congratulations to NK Singh, the President of the Institute of Economic Growth,
05:39and Dr. Sabyasrachi Khar, Director of the Institute of Economic Growth, for convening the fourth edition of the Kautilya Economic Conclave.
05:51We are in an era of unprecedented global uncertainty and volatility.
05:57This conclave provides an invaluable opportunity to bring together distinguished economists and policymakers,
06:06sharing ideas and engaging in meaningful discussions to solve critical common challenges,
06:14which most nations face is absolutely responsibility that this gathering cannot shirk away.
06:24The theme before us, seeking prosperity in troubled times or turbulent times, mirrors the aspirations of each one of the nations
06:35and the world as a whole who are looking to get out of this uncertainty.
06:41So we gather at a time when the very foundation of the global order are shifting beneath our feet.
06:50The world that emerged after the end of the Cold War, which led to the expansion of globalization, open markets,
06:59and the pursuit of multilateral cooperation now appears to be a relic of the past.
07:06For three decades, a contested equilibrium allowed nations to pursue prosperity through integration and interdependence.
07:17That equilibrium has inevitably been appended and the rules of international engagement are being rewritten.
07:27Stating that the present is turbulent in some sense would be an understatement.
07:36The scale of the challenge which is in our hand is rather too big.
07:43So we will be understating the scale of the challenge at hand.
07:50What we face is not a temporary disruption but a structural transformation.
07:58The question therefore is, and this is something on which I will request the gathering to ponder and come out with some answers,
08:08because none of what I am going to say are answers to the problem which are in our hand.
08:14But problem exists and we will have to find solutions.
08:17So the question is, what lies on the other side of this transformation?
08:23If indeed this uncertainty, if indeed this temporary, not temporary disruption, but indeed the uncertainty is a structural transformation.
08:34And I would like to put it in those words.
08:39And if indeed it is structural transformation, what lies on the other side?
08:44What will the new equilibrium look like?
08:48And who will shape it?
08:50And on what terms will it be shaped?
08:53These questions are not easily answered as this equation has to be taking into consideration very many variables.
09:05Not just a few, but many variables.
09:09Shifts that once transpired over decades are now condensed into months and or even weeks.
09:20And tangled with these are the policymakers, wrestling with unforeseen challenges, searching for an equilibrium.
09:30So, by definition, epochal historical turning points do not come around every year.
09:41That's why they are epochal.
09:43For most of us, in our lifetime, the arc of history never bends.
09:50It is linear.
09:52We only see the upward slope.
09:55That is why we sometimes make the mistake of only seeing the upward slope of projecting history linearly.
10:05This is also why confidence in continuing with confidence, why confidence in continuity has rapidly waned as we experience the arc of history bending now.
10:24Giving way to pervasive doubt, the global economy itself reflects this.
10:33And how?
10:34Low investment, high cost of capital, volatile energy prices, and the ever-present tension between growth, stability, and sustainability.
10:49For decades, many Asian nations absorbed the material gains of globalization without adopting the same political values that represented or underpinned the Western society.
11:04Today, they assert alternative models of growth and governance, drawing on their civilizational continuities.
11:13Their emergence questions the assumption of the Western liberal values are the only path to economic success.
11:23These nations have become central pillars of the global order in economic, political, and technological terms.
11:35The absolute dominance once enjoyed by a hegemon is now contested.
11:42In this context, therefore, India's rise as a stabilizing force is neither accidental nor transient.
11:55Instead, it results from a powerful combination of various factors.
12:01India has improved quality of capital expenditure and draining in inflationary pressures has been consistent.
12:10We have implemented strategic reforms that enhance the ease of doing business, promote financial inclusion, and improve the quality of life for the average citizen in the country.
12:23With the steady share of consumption and investment in the overall GDP over the years, India's growth is firmly anchored in its domestic factors, which minimizes the impact of external shocks on overall growth.
12:46As a result, the Indian economy is resilient, continues to grow sustainably.
12:53However, just as eternal vigilance is resilient, continues to grow sustainably.
12:59However, just as eternal vigilance is the price for liberty, eternal performance is the price of strategic independence.
13:10There is no room for complacency or self-regulation beyond the quiet confidence in our abilities to take the right decisions and to execute them.
13:23For many smaller developing nations, the current geopolitical environment poses fundamental questions.
13:32To be sure, there are risks and opportunities.
13:37But questions do loom large.
13:42Will the world remain unipolar?
13:45Or are we entering a truly multipolar age if multipolarity is our future?
13:54What shape will it take?
13:55Will it be one of cooperative pluralism, where different models coexist?
14:07Or will it harden into rival blocks and spheres of influence?
14:13Getting back to the old jargon.
14:17Forcing nations to pick sides.
14:20History offers no guarantees.
14:25But the possibility of a fragmented world with multiple centers of power and competing values appears to be more likely.
14:37Appears to be more likely.
14:40So the trade-offs and imbalances, we need to spend a minute on that.
14:47So the questions that we asked are not abstract.
14:51They directly impact lives of our citizens.
14:56For nations still climbing the development ladder, the trade-offs are particularly acute.
15:06Between energy transition and energy security.
15:10Between the imperative of growth and the urgency of sustainability.
15:15So these are questions which are hitting the common man's lives.
15:20Between the drive for innovation and the realities of the labor markets.
15:25Rich with young populations.
15:28Between attracting capital and the burden of high borrowing costs.
15:34Between the demands of productive investments.
15:37Between the demands of productive investments.
15:39And the temptation of financialization.
15:45These trade-offs define our options.
15:49They are not easily resolved.
15:52Yet they cannot be ignored.
15:55These trade-offs are accentuated in a world with trends towards de-risking, decoupling and hence slowing globalization.
16:14Globalization, economic integration and immigration are not natural states of affairs.
16:23They can unravel under pressure as they have in the past.
16:29Today, we find ourselves in a shifting global landscape that resembles a zero-sum approach in part.
16:40A consequence of the failures and limitations of the era of globalization that preceded it.
16:49So overlaying these in a world of profound imbalances, trade imbalances have hollowed out industries in some nations while creating overcapacity in others.
17:06Financial imbalances have concentrated wealth in speculative sectors while depriving the real economy of investment.
17:16Energy imbalances.
17:19Energy imbalances have made some societies chronically dependent on costly imports.
17:26Even as others subsidize their industries with cheap carbon intensive power.
17:34Net zero commitments pursued with regard to trade-offs.
17:41Risk driving up costs for developing economies while constraining their growth.
17:50These imbalances have become structural features of our world, distorting incentives, fueling political discontent and so on.
18:00So the task before us, therefore, is not simply to manage uncertainty but to confront imbalances.
18:13We must ask ourselves, how can we build a global order where trade is fair, finance serves productive ends, energy is both affordable and sustainable, and climate action aligns with development imperatives.
18:35How can international institutions be reformed to reflect today's realities rather than yesterday's hierarchies?
18:48And crucially, how can the voices of developing nations no longer marginalised in rulemaking be amplified in shaping the future?
19:03The choices we face are stark and already we see efforts to reimagine the global financial system itself.
19:13Innovations like stablecoins are transforming the landscape of money and capital inflows.
19:20These shifts may force nations to make binary choices, adapt to new monetary architecture or risk exclusion.
19:34Such developments underscore the scale of transformation which is underway.
19:41They also remind us that no nation can insulate itself from the systemic changes.
19:49Whether we welcome these shifts or not, we must prepare to engage with them.
19:55At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying.
20:00Sanctions, tariffs and decoupling strategies are reshaping global supply chains.
20:10For India, these dynamics highlight both vulnerability and resilience.
20:17Our capacity to absorb shocks is strong, while our economic leverage is evolving.
20:26Our choices will determine whether resilience becomes a foundation for leadership or merely a buffer against uncertainty.
20:36So in conclusion, history teaches us crises often precede renewal.
20:45The fragmentation we see today may give rise to more sustainable and unforeseen forms of cooperation.
20:53The challenge is to ensure that inclusive principles shape cooperation.
21:00For developing countries, this is a necessity, not just a romantic aspiration.
21:08We cannot afford to be passive spectators.
21:13In a world where decisions elsewhere determine our destinies, we must be active participants,
21:21shaping outcomes where possible and preserving autonomy where necessary.
21:28As we reflect on these issues, let us recognize that many of these questions I have raised today may not have clear answers.
21:39Indeed, it may be unwise to seek definitive answers at this stage.
21:45The value of this gathering lies precisely in its capacity to wrestle with uncertainty, recognize and examine imbalances,
21:57deliberate on trade-offs, particularly those of our time, and be open to the possibilities we may not have considered earlier.
22:08This must be guiding – this must be the guiding vision for our takeaways from these three-day conference.
22:20The themes before us are not isolated strands.
22:23They are part of a single large tapestry.
22:28How we interpret this tapestry and how we choose to act with it will shape the contours of our century.
22:37It is a big ask and a big task.
22:40As more often than not, we tend to have a natural conflict of interest when contemplating adverse scenarios.
22:50If we accept them as possibilities, we must act and drastically refashion our lives.
22:58However, we must ask difficult questions and address their profound implications.
23:05If we are to make sense of seemingly inexplicable events, we have to stretch our mental faculties more than usual.
23:16Let us, therefore, treat this moment not only as a crisis but as an inflection point.
23:25Let us converse not only to ponder upon what future awaits us but also to lay out the contours of the future we wish to create.
23:36And let us proceed with humility that while history may sweep in wide arcs, the choices we make today will decide whether its currents carry us or help steer its course.
23:57Above all, let us weigh every possible option with intent and strive for constructive dialogue.
24:06In doing so, I think we will ensure that the outcomes of this gathering can help sharpen our clarity and cast light on the shadows of an uncertain future.
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