00:00All the indications that we're getting here in Canberra is that it is imminent, and some
00:07inside the building are saying that the most likely window for it is on Monday.
00:12James Marape, PNG's Prime Minister, is expected to come to Australia to watch the NRL Grand
00:17Final and there's a window on Monday before Parliament begins again on Tuesday, which
00:22seems like the obvious one for this treaty to be signed here in Canberra.
00:27We'll have to wait and see, but it does look like that's the most likely moment for the
00:31two leaders to put pen to paper.
00:33As you say, this is a big moment in the relationship.
00:36This would make PNG only Australia's third official ally, and it will have long-ranging
00:41and long-reaching implications for the bilateral relationship, in many ways potentially recasting
00:47it for the coming decades.
00:49So this will be something that both governments will want to invest with a fair amount of pomp
00:53and ceremony.
00:54Australia, in particular, is delighted that this has got over the line.
00:58There was a little bit of nervousness a couple of weeks ago when PNG's Parliament, or rather
01:02PNG's Cabinet, couldn't reach a quorum.
01:05There was speculation that perhaps those opposed to the treaty, including potentially China,
01:09might use that opportunity to try and sink it.
01:13But Mr Marape carried the day pretty comfortably, by the sounds of it, inside his own Cabinet,
01:18and the two leaders are expected to put pen to paper pretty soon.
01:21And what's the response to the Cabinet decision been like in Australia and in PNG, Stephen?
01:27Well, as I mentioned, quite a bit of relief in Canberra, and I don't think there will be
01:30any problem with ratification here in Australia.
01:33We can expect this to sail through Australia's Parliament.
01:36The opposition has made it clear that they're happy with this.
01:39They were very critical of the Prime Minister when he missed the opportunity a couple of weeks
01:42ago to finally land this. Now it's happened. We can expect this to be ushered very comfortably
01:48through Australia's Parliament. In PNG, the picture is a little bit more complicated.
01:53This morning, PNG's opposition leader really weighed back into the debate. He's previously
01:59expressed some concerns about the treaty, and he doubled down on those concerns when he spoke
02:03to the ABC this morning saying he wasn't convinced that the treaty was in the best interests of his
02:09country. He said that he didn't believe Australia was prioritising the key security interests of PNG,
02:15saying that in the end Australia should focus more on helping PNG with its internal security,
02:20something to be fair Australia's already doing, than signing this agreement, and even suggesting that
02:25Australia was keen to push aside PNG in its rush to get this treaty secured. Let's take a listen to
02:32what he had to say speaking to the ABC earlier today.
02:35They're more worried about us signing a treaty with them, a defence treaty, for their own good,
02:41for their own protection, and not for Papua New Guinea. So why can't we cancel this deal,
02:49this deal that will not benefit the nation, and let's come up with a proper package,
02:55a treaty to deal with local terrorism, to deal with the internal issues that we have in terms of law and order.
03:07Now it is worth noting, Ros, that there are other members of the opposition who are in favour of this
03:13agreement, who have said so publicly, including Alan Bird, and the opposition, to be frank, at the moment
03:19in PNG, is not particularly unified. They've been fighting internally over who should have the role.
03:25So most keen observers say that there isn't going to be enough opposition, notwithstanding the leaders' remarks,
03:31to really seriously threaten ratification in Parliament. Nonetheless, hearing that sort of strident
03:37criticism from a prominent MP will not be welcome in Australia, and I think it's something that
03:44they'll be working overtime to try and calm the opposition leaders' fears on.
03:49So Stephen, what's the strategic significance of this pact, and when will we get a better idea
03:54of exactly what's in it? Look, the government has said that they will release the text of this
03:59agreement, so I assume when it is signed, most likely on Monday, we'll get a better sense of
04:03exactly what the wording is in the agreement. Some draft copies have already been circulated amongst
04:10members of the media, but everyone will want to see exactly what that exact final wording says,
04:15before we can judge the seriousness of the strategic guarantees and commitments that the
04:20two countries have made to one another. Nonetheless, there's no doubt that this does represent a very
04:25seismic and real shift in the relationship that will have real implications. Whatever the exact
04:31language used, it's clear that both countries are making pretty substantial strategic commitments to
04:36one another. And not only that, Ros, it's worth remembering just how significant this move to
04:41effectively allow PNG citizens, up to 10,000 to serve in the ADF, just how serious a commitment that
04:47is from PNG, and how much of a boon that could be for Australia, which has been struggling with
04:52recruitment for years now. There's no doubt that the two countries are working now much more closely
04:58together in the defence space, but this document does take the relationship to the next level. The real
05:03questions of course now beyond ratification will be implementation, and how the two countries can
05:08use this document to profoundly shape the relationship over the coming decades.
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