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The Tata Capital IPO is around the corner, and many investors are wondering whether it’s the right bet. A market expert has broken down who should consider subscribing and who may want to stay cautious.
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00:00hello and welcome to market closing on our brand new collab show between business today and india
00:21today television it's 3 p.m and we are here to get you all the market closing action first up
00:27let's take a look at what's hot in the world of corporate as well as the financial space
00:31market street cautious after a 60 fall we have seen that the nifty is up by about 70 points at
00:3924 700 the cent six is nearing 80 600 odd levels psu banks oil and gas real estate metal stocks
00:46are leading the gains while there is cautiousness definitely visible on the street
00:51tata capital launches india's biggest ipo of 2025 it is to raise over 15 500 crore rupees via the
01:04issue price band that has been set at 310 to 326 rupees per share the issue will open for subscription
01:11on 6th of october top management says the band is quite attractively priced for retail investors
01:17they have also clarified that the much higher unlisted price actually refers to older valuations
01:23navratri festive glitter boost sentiment mcx gold and silver have hit record high levels yet again
01:32they have continued their bull run on a weaker dollar and expectations of the u.s federal reserve rate
01:38cut later this year in mumbai the 24 carat gold today trades at around 1.16 lakh rupees per 10 grams
01:45whereas 22 carat is priced at 1.07 lakh rupees per 10 grams whereas silver is today priced at one and a
01:53half lakh rupees per kilogram in mumbai
01:55over 3 000 gst related complaints have been received after tax cuts consumer affairs ministry
02:04has been forwarding these cases to cbic monitoring unfair discounts and using ai and chatbots to ensure
02:11businesses pass gst benefits to consumers
02:19social media platform access to appeal against karnataka high court's recent order directing it to
02:24follow government takedown notices the elon musk owned company has described high court order as deeply
02:29concerning and warned that the ruling would allow a fast number of police officers to issue arbitrary
02:36takedown directives
02:45good afternoon i'm sakshi batra let's take it away talk about the market uh you know closing hour of
02:50trades last half an hour of moves that we've been seeing in the markets right now the nifty is hovering
02:55about 0.1 percent lower in trade at 24 624 is what we are given to understand let's also look at the key
03:02sectors that have actually come under pressure this is also a truncated week remember thursday is when
03:08we will have the uh holiday for on account of the shara so we only have four days of a week that
03:13the markets will be trading in tomorrow again there will be the weekly first weekly expiry of the october
03:19series and thereafter we will also have the sensex contracts expiring as well so the markets are pretty
03:24cautious among uh right ahead of the back-to-back expiries that we've been looking at also when we look at
03:30the markets clearly you can see the it index small caps um the consumer durables autos pharma private
03:36banks as well reeling under some pressure but it's the psu banks that are definitely leading from the
03:41front today you can see a 1.6 kind of a rally that's unfolding there you can also look at oil and gas
03:47real estate metals these are all the other sectors that are shining bright among the key stocks on the
03:52nifty you have the jewelry stock titan that's up by two percent you have wipro state bank of india
03:58that's leading the psu banking move today in this in bank from the private banks you also have food
04:03delivery and quick commerce giant eternal that's also uh the parent company of zomato that's actually
04:08pulling up in trade as well hindalco is also up by about 1.3 percent in trade let's actually welcome
04:14our guest on board we have with us now mr abhinash shah gorak shakar who's a market expert to help us
04:19understand the current sentiment on the d street and to of course help us understand what's next coming in
04:25onto the markets as well good afternoon to you avinash good to have you with us straight away
04:29help us understand you know we are now sitting on the back of those six days of a consecutive
04:33sell-off in the markets in fact we have also given up 80 percent of the gains the 1000 point gains
04:41that the markets had uh you know got from august 29 so in the last week alone we've actually given
04:46up 80 percent of those gains how are you looking at the current sentiment which is extremely volatile at this
04:52point in time yeah i think uh sakshi first of all you know i think markets are volatile because uh
04:59clearly uh you know a lot of liquidity has been sucked out by the primary markets i think clearly
05:04you know two big ips uh tata capital we work uh is going to uh you know raise up something like 20 000
05:10crores so that's uh putting a lot of pressure on the secondary market and that's creating a lot of
05:15volatility uh because typically you know investors sell in the secondary market and apply in the primary
05:21market secondly i think uh the markets are a little uncertain that you know the weekly expiry is now
05:26going to go away uh there are very clear indications that a formal announcements could be made soon and
05:31that also is creating a little bit of volatility and finally the rupee you know has turned weak i think
05:36the rupee turning weak does not encourage the fis to come in and already the fis have been quite heavy
05:42net sellers in the market so you know all these things have combined into the market sentiment getting a
05:47little negative but i think uh looking at the fact of the matter is that we will be earning uh entering
05:52earning season very soon my sense is from the second week of october you could see the corporate
05:56earning season coming out so there's a little bit of hope that numbers could be much better than quarter
06:01one and most importantly you know i think with inflation down uh hopefully the economy should possibly
06:07do much better in the third quarter so i think you know keeping fingers crossed i think one needs to
06:12take a stock specific view broadly the markets are going to remain in a in a same zone i don't think
06:17the markets are going to find any near-term immediate trigger and they would obviously wait for the
06:22you know for the import tariff policy decision which is now very well expected hopefully we get it
06:27by the time diwali comes i think it will be a good reason to cheer but otherwise the import tariff kind of
06:33trigger and the corporate result earning season are near-term triggers which are going to take the
06:37markets upwards so till that time the markets you know on the index level will remain range-borne it's
06:42better to you know focus on stock specific activity i wanted to also understand from you which are the
06:52sectors that one should now bet on you know we've been seeing a large long drawn under performance and
06:58consolidation in the markets but if one has to bet big at these lower prices thinking that i am a long-term
07:04investor and at every dip i should be accumulating for myself or taking the benefit of the low tide in
07:10the markets which are the sectors that you believe still have a lot of steam ahead because in the
07:16periodic run-up we've seen the consumption oriented sectors also move up we've also seen the banking
07:21especially the private sector banks play their part last year it was all about the defense in the
07:25railways pack which are the sectors that you believe now will stand the chance of leading the recovery in
07:30the markets no i think clearly you know consumption related sectors specifically if you talk about
07:37would be auto components automobiles capital goods cement uh you know i think even consumer durables
07:43consumer appliances you know these are sectors where there's a lot of tailwind in terms of demand
07:49and with a good monsoon with lower interest rates with the gst cuts i think you're going to see a lot of
07:54demand coming through in the third quarter of this financial year already you know we have seen record
07:59numbers of you know automobiles delivered uh from september 22nd onwards so my sense is that these
08:05could be good opportunities you know where you get good stocks at good valuations and provided there
08:10are near-term earning triggers for these companies so i think you know you need to create a basket of
08:15stocks in this weak market because you know these kind of markets give an opportunity for investors
08:20to buy value at the right price my sense is that investors who have missed out the earlier cycle
08:25could definitely add a little bit more because typically the january to march quarter is going
08:29to be a much better quarter and october to december won't be the beginning of a much stronger revival in
08:35demand quarter for most of the consumption related companies like fmcg consumer durables uh consumer
08:41appliances auto components and automobile so you know we have been telling our clients to actually start
08:45accumulating stock specific wise which actually could give them a good alpha over the next 12-15 months
08:51fair point since we are talking about a lot of consumer oriented spirit at this point in time
08:57sir as the fist festive season has already been progressing pretty well uh we actually also saw um
09:03you know how consumer durables are also looking for a sharp growth this festive season vis-a-vis the
09:09previous festive seasons in fact we had also spoken to blue star that was betting big on uh big on
09:15demand of the festive season we actually spoke to managing director mr bt agarajan uh this
09:20morning as he's actually called uh the golden age for room acs kick starting with festive seals uh
09:27also expected to jump 15 to 20 percent and f by 26 growth likely to double from their initial
09:33target of about 10 to 15 percent as well let's listen in to what mr bt agarajan had to say and
09:38then we'll come to discuss uh what is the future of consumer durable stocks the the first one make up as
09:45you're aware on september 22nd uh the new gst regime came into force uh i i would say in the past five
09:56five six days uh it has gone as per the plan uh first of all there was a pent-up demand from august
10:0415th onwards uh individual customers who stopped buying and there there were some bookings and i would
10:12say september to september i think it is it is around 20 percent growth we are witnessing and uh it is
10:20not a season for air conditioners but having said that this 20 percent growth gives us the confidence
10:29that building up to diwali it should be a great season ahead go back to the years when summer season
10:36uh was not happening uh was not happening sales was not happening um still the industry would end up
10:43with five to ten percent growth uh now with the gst benefit uh i i think it it is possible for the
10:51industry to go ahead and close the financial year with even 15 to 20 percent growth for air conditioner
10:59industry it it's it's good it is you know already there is a installed uh base of currently if you
11:07estimate my estimate is somewhere around 70 million air conditioners will be there across the country
11:17and many of them the the population that is exceeding seven year period is becoming significant that means
11:25from now on there is going to be significant opportunity for replacement market as well and we are governed by
11:35the uh by the e-waste uh epr regulation so therefore uh you are you are going to be uh witnessing uh a golden
11:46period for a room air conditioner's business right i've been actually coming back to you you heard mr
11:53abeet yag rajan talking about how the industry could be celebrating 15 to 20 growth on the back of
11:58these festive sales and the gst boosts that they have got uh remember he's also talked about that how
12:04this could really uh offset at least most of the impact that they saw because of weak summer this time
12:09around usually when there is uh the summer season when the demand for such acs is much higher than what
12:15it is right now during the discount season is because um this year summers were also bogged down by
12:21unseasonal rainfalls erratic monsoons as well so looking at all of that whatever they lost in
12:26the summer months they're hoping that that could get offset because of huge demand uh that is now
12:32being seen because of discounts and gst cuts at the same time how are you looking at players like
12:36bluestar voltas havils all of these companies that are huge into this space no i think uh you know the
12:44point is very logical this time the summer has been uh little affected by unseasonal monsoons and that
12:49is the reason summer sales did not pick up the way they normally uh pick up but i think with the
12:55gst cuts and with the kind of uh you know pricing benefits which are expected now to come in uh most
13:02customers have uh you know probably would cleverly like to buy the you know acs at this point of time
13:07because clearly they get better prices and typically festival season gives them added discounts so i think
13:14we are constructively positive on companies like volta vehicles uh my sense is that you know you
13:19could see a good ramp up in the october to december quarter because most of the gst cuts have started
13:24from 22nd uh september so i think the full impact of that would be felt in the third and the fourth
13:29quarter but i think the tailwind is very positive i think companies are making all conscious efforts to
13:34ensure that uh apart from the gst cuts there are some discount offers also going on and third quarter
13:39typically is a festival quarter so i'm expecting a decent volume pickup and more or less that would
13:44you know make up some part of the loss of business in the summer months which did not happen as per
13:49expectation so i think investors can look at these companies from a slightly medium term kind of time
13:54frame but definitely next year is going to be a much better year for them because apart from pricing i
13:59think the business will be back to normal fair point so those are the other sectors that one could
14:04definitely be looking at as opportunities there next year as avanajji pointed out is going to be
14:09much better and it's going to carry all the benefits of the sales that we are going to be seeing underway
14:14right now the other important bit is to understand how the primary market is shaping up viewers
14:19understand that in the stock markets there are two segments one is the secondary market that's the
14:24listed stocks and the second one is the primary market where a lot of new ipos initial public offers
14:29come in now remember uh this uh time we are actually seeing the largest ever ipo that has been seen
14:37um you know in the history uh as well as you know we've been witnessing that for the last couple of
14:42years we've had hyundai we've had lic we've had so many of the ipos that are larger uh than what we have
14:50ever seen and this time around in 2025 also we are going to be seeing the largest ipo of this year
14:55that's slated to open on 6th of october this is the second tata group ipo that uh in the last two
15:01years that we are going to be seeing that will be of uh tata capital that will now raise close to 16
15:06000 crore rupees with a price fund of 310 to 326 rupees the public offer comprises of a fresh issue
15:12of equity shares as well as offer for sale as well wherein tata sons international and finance
15:17corporation will be selling a part of the stock as well now remember this is what the company's
15:22management today in their press conference has had to say about the pricing and according to some
15:27reports uh which were talking about considerably lower price band than what is being traded in the
15:33unlisted shares let's listen into what the management had to say and we'll come back to
15:36a discussion with avnashni on that many of these transactions that you're referring to happened
15:41quite some time back and obviously at that at that point in time it it happens in unlisted markets
15:48where i don't think there is any interaction with the company uh so often there can be a correlation
15:55or not a correlation with those transactions we do have a very wide shareholder base and we do have
16:01people and families who have been with us for generations so since tata capital is again a large
16:06company is going to be an important company of the overall group we felt it is very important that when
16:13we are raising capital for the first time we maximize the amount of shareholders and give
16:17them opportunity to come abroad on tata capital every subsequent fundraising as in when it takes
16:22place in a in a financial sources business or in any other business nowadays actually happens more with
16:29qualified institutional investors so to that extent this is an opportunity for us to really get
16:34as many investors as would like to come into the company on board so uh the whole idea is to
16:40basically make sure the price is attractive enough for everyone to partner with us in this journey
16:46right avinash coming to you uh there are a few aspects that we need to discuss one is of course
16:53what we will discuss as the opportunity that tata capital uh the largest ipo of 2025 that it presents to
16:59retail investors what do you think of that two uh what management also clarified remember the unlisted
17:05market price was somewhere around 1100 or so and when we are seeing the price band being announced
17:11those investors who invested in the unlisted market are looking at some kind of a um you know negative
17:16impact on their uh investments in the unlisted market too how should we be looking at that thirdly
17:22large ipos have rather been a disappointment what has happened with tata technologies is again casting a
17:29shadow on investors as to whether they should go all out and look at this large conglomerate also
17:34coming out with an ipo how are you going to address all these aspects sir no i think uh such
17:40your point is right that uh typically when a very large ipo of this size is announced it creates a
17:45kind of a doubt in the minds of investors we have seen this happening like coal india
17:50lic uh kundi you know so i think definitely large ipos have to be taken into perspective only if the
17:57investor has a slightly longer time horizon i think if anybody is looking at pure listing gains
18:02uh from tata capital he may be disappointed because i think clearly uh you know obviously
18:07the company is going to benefit from this capital raising but it will take some time to deliver the
18:11numbers uh more importantly on the unlisted kind of pricing which has happened is i think uh you know
18:17i think a lot of people have got stuck up into high priced unlisted shares including tata capital
18:22so i think investors should realize that they have to be very careful about these transactions because
18:27you know the price of 300 rupees uh and compared to the unlisted price of 1100 means that there's a
18:33very big capital loss such investors will make it will find it very difficult to recover their cost
18:38so i think uh you know investors should be careful when they do any unlisted trade because this is
18:42outside the purview of the regulator yeah and i think we need to be very careful and of course
18:47at the end of the day i think uh you know it's going to be performance you mentioned that tata
18:51technologies also underperform but hopefully the nbfc market and the financial market is going to
18:56flourish considering the kind of appetite for capital especially from the consumption related
19:01sectors so i think we have been telling our investors that only if you have a 12 to 18
19:06month kind of time frame you should apply here uh it's not for listing gains tatas are definitely
19:11well respected a very formidable group in the economy and i think long-term value creation will happen
19:17okay i want to actually help us understand this year what we've actually seen is one of the most
19:21vibrant periods for the ipo space in last one year we have seen ipos cumulatively raising 1.7 lakh crore
19:29rupees in the indian markets itself uh which has been far out more uh which is our outlook what has
19:36happened with the nifty and the sensex and the returns there both their returns have in fact been
19:40negative of about four percent odd if you compare from last october uh till september of 2025 the kind of
19:46returns that we have seen same way we're trying to understand for our larger audiences what is
19:51considered beneficial should one look at investment in ipos by way of opportunities to create um you know
19:58great wealth over a long time and of course looking at this as an early entry point uh vis-a-vis the
20:04secondary markets which because of a lot of uh uncertainties have rather been an underperforming one
20:10no i think uh entirely you know the point which is important to note for investors is that they
20:17should understand at what valuation are they entering whenever they apply for ipo i think
20:22investors who have been applying only for listing gains and just for a pop-up on listing are definitely
20:28in for a negative surprise nowadays we see issues getting oversubscribed a hundred times but the ipo
20:33listing price is hardly 10 percent or 14 percent so you know clearly i think valuations if they are
20:38expensive then it makes a lot of sense to buy these companies post listing maybe after a couple of
20:43months when the initial excitement is down and i think you get the stock at a very fairly attractive
20:48valuation so i think at the end of the day i think investors should spend a little bit of time on
20:53understanding whether the valuation is attractive or whether it is very stressed because unless there
20:57is some money on the table such as ipos are not going to make money immediately it's going to take
21:02some time and i think people have realized that listing gains are not going to be the main
21:06uh proposition when they apply for such ipo so i think you know net net i think you should look at
21:11the valuation look at the future prospects of the company and then take a quote
21:18space you know in the nbfc space as well hdb financial another big ipo that actually came in from
21:24a big conglomerate this time around their shares have fallen below the ipo prices and what we've seen
21:30is that the losses continue even after the share lock-in has ended how are you looking at that aspect
21:35then what is really happening with such big brands big pedigree large conglomerates coming
21:41out with newer ipos and yet seeing an underperformance in the stock markets
21:45see sakshi frankly we have been telling our clients that don't uh rush into something where
21:50a lot of investors want a particular stock because too much excitement creates a little
21:55bit of problem and i think hdp was a classic example uh it has a pedigree like hdfc bank but
22:01unfortunately as you mentioned it's below the ipo price so it always makes sense to you know
22:05give it a miss to such kind of large ipos and obviously look at the post listing opportunity
22:10because you know nothing is going to run away you're going to get an opportunity to buy the stock
22:14and in this kind of market you know when so much paper is floated in the primary market
22:19uh uh we believe that supply of paper is also going to be a big negative factor absolutely
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