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  • 4 months ago
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00:00what you have from Bears-Cowboys involved in your Sunday morning.
00:03Yeah, and actually, it's funny.
00:04I usually like to separate the games here,
00:05but I actually like this game so much.
00:08Like, in the Windy City, Chicago in December,
00:09maybe it's a little bit different, but for me, no.
00:11Today, I'm just going to look at this game and say,
00:13Donnie, keep it simple.
00:14These two defenses stink.
00:15These two offenses can cook.
00:17These two offenses should be coming in hot enough to throw
00:19at least four total touchdown passes.
00:22And here's where I like it, too.
00:23It's a bet 365 bet for me, Kevin,
00:25where if somebody does get injured at quarterback,
00:28it doesn't kill your bet.
00:29And I love that.
00:30Backup quarterback comes in, still slinging.
00:32And you know what, East?
00:33Oh, look at this.
00:34A Roma Dunze reverse, double reverse pass touchdown.
00:37No!
00:38Yes, absolutely.
00:39It counts as a touchdown pass.
00:40I just don't see any way, shape, or form, Kevin,
00:43which, again, this is always the broken record,
00:45and you can clip this.
00:47We're not running the football in the end zone multiple times.
00:49Like, we are getting big play strikes from these two offenses here,
00:52putting their quarterbacks not in harm's way,
00:55but to succeed against two defenses that are vulnerable.
00:57I'll start with that.
00:58Over three-and-a-half touchdown passes in the Bears game,
01:01that's at a plus-100 price.
01:02Four touchdown passes.
01:03Yes, absolutely.
01:05Yeah, I don't mind it at all.
01:07I think these are two quarterbacks, Donnie,
01:08who will be looking to put those numbers up on the board.
01:11As I said before, I'm taking Caleb Williams to not throw an interception.
01:15This will be a horrific watch, I promise you.
01:19Try not to watch the game through the lens of this,
01:21because every pass attempt will come with a little bit of worry.
01:25But Caleb Williams rarely throws interceptions.
01:28Threw one last week.
01:29I'm going to bet that he doesn't do it again.
01:31You're sticking in this game, Donnie, for your second piece of the crunch.
01:33Again, there's four touchdown passes.
01:35Backup tight ends aren't catching these touchdown passes.
01:38You know who you need to get involved with.
01:40Multiple jump balls in the red zone to who?
01:42George Pickens.
01:43Donnie, why don't you go CeeDee Lamb?
01:44Yes, I think CeeDee Lamb's going to score a touchdown.
01:46But this seems like the perfect spot where we're going to double down on CeeDee Lamb
01:49and not let us beat us.
01:50So you know what that means, Kevin.
01:52One-on-one coverage on the outside to one of the best playmakers
01:55when the ball is in the air and it's one-on-one play.
01:57George Pickens, anytime touchdown market today, Kevin.
02:00Price that at a plus 158.
02:01Is that one of those spots, Donnie, where you would love the opportunity
02:05to even just like, I'll play Lamb and Pickens here kind of situation?
02:08Yeah, exactly.
02:09If they're both plus money, which I did, which by the way,
02:11Thursday Night Football was fantastic with Tyreek Hill and certainly Jalen Wada.
02:14But you're right about that.
02:15If there's multiple touchdown passes, at least one of those two guys
02:18will catch when I'm going with Pickens today.
02:20The wide receiver, Donnie, that made my card is actually Mike Evans.
02:23And that came Buka banged up.
02:25I think that that matters.
02:26Still know Chris Godwin.
02:27I think that that matters.
02:28But Mike Evans is also clearly in line for some super positive regression.
02:32So far, he's 10 of 19.
02:3410 receptions, 19 targets.
02:37Mike Evans is usually bringing in around 67, 68% of his targets.
02:42And it's also yards per reception, right?
02:44We're at 10.7 this year.
02:46This guy usually 13, 14.
02:48I think there could be some explosives.
02:50I think there's still going to be a great workload for him.
02:53And the Jets defense just doesn't scare as much as it used to.
02:57He's going to beat Sauce up today?
02:58Yeah, I'm on Mike Evans, Donnie, over the 66 and a half.
03:01Baker's built a little different.
03:02He's like, hold on.
03:02Who's your only good corner?
03:04Sauce?
03:04He's guarding Mike.
03:05Awesome.
03:05Here's 12 targets, brother.
03:07Yeah, exactly.
03:07And it's also not the same game plan.
03:08He comes in front of the game.
03:09Hey, buddy, man.
03:10Yeah.
03:10Sauce is on you.
03:11I'm going to go to the other side.
03:12I'm like, no, that's like, no, I'm going to eat this guy.
03:14You're going to give me the football.
03:15I agree.
03:15Yeah.
03:16Tell me then, you have a defensive prop closing this out.
03:19I'll tell you.
03:20And now, number two, we're going to talk about this game because I think it's the most fascinating
03:22game when really it shouldn't be.
03:24And that's the defensive pass rush for the Green Bay Packers.
03:26There's two ways you can play this.
03:28Joe Flacco is a statue.
03:29He's not going to get away from one of the best pass rushers in football, which is Michael
03:32Parsons.
03:32Yeah.
03:33Which brings me to this, Kevin.
03:34How many times do you see this?
03:35Double team on Michael Parsons.
03:37He almost gets Joe Flacco, which forces him into another defender's waiting arms here.
03:42Did you know Michael Parsons is a minus 200 to get an anytime sack today?
03:45I can't pay that price, even though I think he gets it.
03:47Rashawn Gary, a sack in both of the first two games, because why?
03:51Michael Parsons is basically hurting the quarterback right to him.
03:54He gets a sack today, minus 115.
03:56I love it.
03:56And by the way, make sure you're shopping around with these books.
03:59Not a full sack.
04:00You got like 365?
04:02Yeah.
04:02Just get a half a sack?
04:03Cash that ticket.
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