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  • 11 months ago
Geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group said that Saudi Arabia's new mutual defence pact with Pakistan, which treats an attack on one as an attack on both, will significantly alter India's security calculations. Bremmer highlighted that this agreement, which formalises a long-standing understanding that includes Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities as part of Saudi Arabia's defence, will make Pakistan feel "geopolitically stronger" and add a new layer of complexity to potential military conflicts with India. 

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00:00So, you know, this is also coming in the backdrop of Operation Sindhul, which was seen as a massive success, you know, carried out by Indian armed forces.
00:08Do you see this pact perhaps alter defense postures or deterrence calculations?
00:15Look, I think that if you're India and you have an ongoing, very severe border security issue with Pakistan, that military conflict has escalated significantly in the past months.
00:32You've got big challenges to the longstanding water agreement that India is essentially suspending their participation in.
00:43You know, these are all things that make everyone recognize that in the future there's a good chance we're going to see more another military altercation.
00:54Now, if that happens and Saudi Arabia is committed to come to Pakistan's defense, if I'm India, that has to factor into my calculations of what are the consequences.
01:08If I decide that I'm going to engage in bombing drone strikes directly against Pakistan territory.
01:18I mean, clearly that even though we don't know exactly what the terms of the agreement are in any collective security agreement, there's a military attack against one.
01:30The other is obliged to come to their aid.
01:33And so, yeah, that's going to change life for India.
01:37No question.
01:38And, Mr. Bremer, just a few hours ago on your ex-handle, and I must say that I follow your tweets very, very closely.
01:46You have quoted Oscar Benavides.
01:49Can I correct my pronunciation here?
01:52For my friends, everything for my enemies, the law.
01:56It's revelatory and philosophical at the same time.
01:59In an uncertain geopolitical atmosphere, Mr. Bremer, where the axis of friendship is changing and there are no permanent enemies, certainly, how should this tweet of yours be read?
02:13Rule of law is only legitimate when it applies equally to all citizens in a country.
02:22Rules of the road globally are only legitimate if they are upheld equally for countries and other actors around the world.
02:35We've seen just in the last hours China's defense minister categorically reject the idea of a return to the so-called law of the jungle.
02:49But in an environment where we don't have global leadership, where there is a great deal of disagreement among the G7 countries in what they believe in and what their values are and what they will support, what they will oppose.
03:07That's right.
03:08And that's even more true among the BRICS than what you see increasingly is a world order where the rules apply selectively, where the weak are meant to suffer as they must and the strong and powerful do as they will.
03:30And increasingly, that's true in many countries around the world as well.
03:37It's a world with much greater impunity and, of course, with much greater chaos, with much less collective security.
03:46That's really what's meant by that pretty evocative quote.
03:51So it is essentially a jungle law which is being applied by multiple global leaders right now?
03:57Certainly, if you're Russia, you feel like you can do whatever you want because you're the most powerful in your neighborhood and you're not going to be stopped by the Ukrainians who are a lesser force, by the Europeans who can act in only a limited collective way,
04:19and by the Americans who have shown that repeatedly that they don't really want to be involved in leading the resistance to support Ukraine.
04:29If you're Israel, you are the strongest military power, not to mention nuclear power, only nuclear power in the Middle East.
04:39And I mean, Israel launched attacks on six countries in one day last week.
04:43And they can ensure that not just they can deter their adversaries, but they can increasingly eradicate their adversaries.
04:54And there's very little that anyone can do to stop them.
04:57And, of course, most importantly, the United States can choose to rip up trade agreements, tariff agreements, security agreements.
05:09And you're going to have to, if you want to continue to have to enjoy a privileged relationship with the United States, unless you're very powerful and can say no to the U.S., as the Chinese have, for example,
05:26then you're going to have to hold your nose and ignore what you thought was a commitment by the Americans and recognize that they're much more powerful than you.
05:39And so for now, you're going to have to do what they want.
05:41And there are many countries around the world, including India, that are having a very hard time navigating that.
05:48Yes, since you.
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