- 2 days ago
India’s top diplomat Vikas Swarup says Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir’s sharp words show unease, and Donald Trump is 'unhappy' over tariff issues. He also flagged Pak’s nuclear threat, Operation Sindoor, and the fragile India–Pakistan truce amid shifting global trade and security equations.
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00:00A lot of commentators are saying that this is a frustration, a noble frustration of Trump.
00:05And some are saying that he's just a bully.
00:07Trump is not happy with India.
00:09He's not happy with India because we are a member of BRICS.
00:12And somehow in his head, he has got this notion that BRICS is an anti-America alliance.
00:17Number two is, of course, Operation Sindhoor and his so-called role in bringing about the ceasefire.
00:23Trump has now said almost 30 times that it was he who got the two countries to step back from the brink,
00:28who stopped the nuclear conflagration in the subcontinent.
00:31Do you think the U.S. is making a big mistake for their own consumers?
00:36U.S. called India a tariff king.
00:38But now the tariff king in the world is the United States because our average tariff is about 15.98%.
00:44The U.S. tariff today is 18.4%.
00:48Do you think he will de-hyphenate India-Pakistan?
00:50It's a strategic mistake on the part of the U.S. that you know you are getting in bed with Pakistan,
00:54which is in bed with China.
00:55And China is the U.S.' strategic competitor.
00:57It's the biggest geopolitical rival to the United States.
01:00We have to look at U.S.'s relationship with Pakistan in a different lens from the U.S.'s relationship with India.
01:05I think the relationship with Pakistan right now is a very tactical one and is a short-term one,
01:11you know, primarily motivated by the financial gain that the Trump family and the Whitworth family hopes to make.
01:18Sir Munir is in U.S.
01:20He was in U.S. actually two days back.
01:21And there was a black tie event where he threatened the world.
01:26He said, if we go down, we'll take the half of the world down.
01:29Also, he threatened that we are going to attack India.
01:31Pakistan is rattled by our abrogation or putting in suspension the Indus Water Street.
01:36But secondly, I think what he always tries to stoke is the fear of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
01:42But Prime Minister Modi has already said that there will be no nuclear blackmail will be tolerated.
01:46Absolutely.
01:49Vikasji, thank you so much for sparing time out of your busy schedule.
01:53I am straight away coming to the point on tariff issue.
01:57This issue is haunting India.
01:59This issue has become a big diplomatic war between the two countries.
02:04Where do you see it going?
02:06See, we have to understand why these tariffs have been imposed.
02:09I personally feel that there are three reasons.
02:12One, Trump is not happy with India.
02:14He is not happy with India because we are a member of BRICS.
02:17And somehow in his head, he has got this notion that BRICS is an anti-America alliance,
02:23which is hell-bent on creating an alternative currency to the dollar.
02:26So because of that, you know, he feels that India should not be a member of the BRICS, number one.
02:31Number two is, of course, Operation Sindhuur and his so-called role in bringing about the ceasefire.
02:37Now, we have been saying right from the beginning that Trump had no role because we do not accept external mediation.
02:43This ceasefire was mediated directly between the DGMOs of Pakistan and India at the request of the DGMO of Pakistan.
02:50Trump has now said almost 30 times that it was he who got the two countries to step back from the brink,
02:56who stopped the nuclear conflagration in the subcontinent.
02:58So obviously, he is miffed that India has not acknowledged his role,
03:02whereas Pakistan has not only acknowledged his role, but has even nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize.
03:06So that's the second reason.
03:08And the third is, this is part of his pressure tactics to get India to sign on the dotted line
03:13on the maximalist demands that the U.S. is making with regard to access to our dairy and agriculture and GM crops.
03:20We have not caved in.
03:22And it is also in a way a signal to Russia because he is also frustrated that he has not been able to get President Putin
03:28to agree to the ceasefire that Zelensky has agreed to.
03:32Of course, now they are meeting in Alaska on the 15th of August.
03:34But will that ease some pressure?
03:36If there is a positive outcome of the Alaska talks,
03:39then I am 100% sure that the Russia sanctions will be off the table
03:43because obviously Putin is not going to accept a ceasefire and yet be saddled with the, you know, economic sanctions.
03:48But will it ease off any pressure on India also?
03:50Yes. So if those 25% tariffs go away, if our base rate tariff remains 25,
03:55then it provides much more headroom for our negotiators to engage with the U.S. counterparts,
04:00especially when they meet on the 25th of August,
04:02and see whether we can sweeten the deal to a certain extent.
04:05But you said that he's a tough taskmaster, this Trump, we know, and he's adamant, do you think?
04:12And so where will be the middle path?
04:15Because India cannot cave in, as you said, on the agriculture and dairy.
04:19So where is it heading?
04:21Where is it heading?
04:21No, this is the question of where we can go and where we can go and Trump can put the pressure on the other side of the country.
04:28We have seen the two things that we have seen.
04:29So our, which is very spashed, our U.S. has a good trade deal.
04:33We want a good trade deal with the US, but if we want a trade deal with the two countries.
04:38If this is only America in the United States, then we don't have any trade deal with such a trade deal.
04:43How do you look at the political and diplomacy?
05:13How do you look at the diplomatic handling of this issue?
05:15So I think, you know, on the Operation Sindoor credit part, probably we could have finished it better.
05:20In the sense that we could have discounted Trump's role, not dismissed it altogether.
05:26But if there is no role.
05:28For instance, we could say that Trump's role was so much that they persuaded Pakistan that you can't win this war against India.
05:36You cannot win this war against India.
05:37So it's better that you call it off.
05:39And Indians have already told us that if you stop, they will stop.
05:42Because India had made it clear from day one that our own objective was to avenge what happened on the April, on the 22nd of April in Pehelga.
05:50And we struck the terrorist camps.
05:52And if Pakistan had not responded, then that would have been the end of the battle.
05:55Vikasji, a lot of commentators are saying that this is a frustration of, novel frustration of Trump.
06:01And some are saying that he's just a bully.
06:03And he's just trying to bully.
06:04So how do you characterize him?
06:08Look, Trump is a dealmaker.
06:10And he has now made it his USP that he is the peacemaker, that he is the one who's bringing about.
06:16Look at the number of conflict situations that he has mediated in now.
06:21Whether it is Thailand and Cambodia, whether it is Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo, whether it is Armenia and Azerbaijan.
06:27He has injected himself into each of these.
06:30And of course, he feels that the biggest one of these was the India-Pakistan one because these two are nuclear powers.
06:36So from that point of view, Trump feels that he deserves credit.
06:39And, you know, Obama is the only American president to have got the Nobel Peace Prize.
06:43And Trump really wants to do one better than Obama.
06:45And that's why I think he has made no secret of his longing for that Nobel Peace Prize.
06:51And he's hoping that if he could not get it for these, if he is able to bring about a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, then that might be his ticket to the Nobel Peace Prize.
06:59Sir, our opposition is now gunning for the department which you used to work for, the Ministry of External Affairs.
07:06They say that diplomacy has totally collapsed in this case.
07:09How do you look at that?
07:10Look, at the end of the day, ambassadors and diplomats are only implementers of foreign policy.
07:16They do not frame policy.
07:18And here I would not blame our diplomats at all.
07:21I think what has happened is Pakistan, through some intermediaries, has gotten the ear of the president of the United States.
07:29And that is why two visits by Ase Muneer to Washington, you know, the so-called deal with America on so-called oil reserves of Pakistan.
07:38And more importantly, I think Pakistan is now trying to position itself as the crypto king of Southeast, of South Asia.
07:46And there, through World Liberty Financial, in which Trump's family has stakes, Steve Witkoff's family has a stake.
07:52Through that, I think Pakistan has managed to project an image of itself as a reliable partner.
07:59You know, they handed over a terrorist who was responsible for the Kabul bombings.
08:02So, all these things have led to Trump having a softer approach towards Pakistan.
08:07But that does not mean that, you know, he has given up on India or that India is now an adversary for him.
08:13I think, as I mentioned very early on, this is part of his pressure tactics, you know, to secure a more favorable deal.
08:20India should not cave in because our strategic autonomy is non-negotiable.
08:24So, sir, do you think he will de-hyphenate India-Pakistan?
08:27Right now, though, he has totally not only been hyphenated, in fact, he has sidelined India and he's seen much close to Pakistan now.
08:34I don't think, look, we have to look at US's relationship with Pakistan in a different lens from the US's relationship with India.
08:41I think the relationship with Pakistan right now is a very tactical one and is a short-term one, you know, primarily motivated by the financial gain that the Trump family and the Wittkopf family hopes to make from the cryptocurrency assets in Pakistan.
08:56With India, I think the relationship is much more strategic.
08:59You know, it is not so transactional as it is with Pakistan.
09:02And that is why I personally feel that this is a passing phase.
09:05I call it a storm, not a rupture.
09:07And storms, as you know, you just have to wait out the storm.
09:09All storms eventually pass.
09:11But singling out India, like highest tariff in the world, I believe.
09:15Yes, highest together with Brazil.
09:16But why only India singled out on the subtext that India is buying from Russia, even the US is buying from Russia, China is buying from Russia, but no additional tariffs.
09:28No, no, so that is the...
09:29No secondary tariffs.
09:30You're absolutely right, Navin, and that is the hypocrisy we need to call out.
09:33Last year, in 2024, Europe, you know, had massive deals with Russia, for which they paid $70.3 billion to Russia.
09:43India paid $72 billion for the oil, and European Union paid $70.3 billion.
09:48America itself purchased $3.8 billion worth of products from Russia.
09:52So, and then let's not forget, the biggest buyer of Russian oil is China.
09:57No sanctions on China.
09:59Another big buyer of Russian oil is Turkey.
10:01No sanctions on Turkey.
10:02So, because I think he, right now, wants to put pressure on Russia, and that's why, you know, he has singled out India.
10:08And also the fact that we have not caved in to the US pressure on their maximalist demands on access to the area and agriculture.
10:15So, you think, Mr. Modi did the right thing by not caving in?
10:17Oh, absolutely.
10:18Because if you cave in to a bully, then the bully will increase his demands, and then there will be even more demands on you.
10:24So, I think we have done the right thing.
10:25And plus, you see, India is too large, too proud a country to become a camp follower of any other country.
10:31You know, our strategic autonomy has been the bedrock of our foreign policy right from the 1950s.
10:35And I don't think any government in Delhi can compromise on that.
10:40So, sir, now Russia talks are around the corner, Russia-US talks.
10:46In case they resolve it, so you think that 25% additional secondary will definitely go?
10:51I am very, very confident that the secondary tariffs will go because Putin will not accept a deal unless the sanctions are also off the table.
10:59Sir, another strategic calculation which is emerging out of all this is U.S. coming close to Pakistan, but Pakistan is already so close to China.
11:08Absolutely.
11:09Which is working in the same territory, same area.
11:12So, how it will pan out?
11:14It looks very complicated.
11:17Like it has become a jigsaw puzzle now.
11:19No, it's not a jigsaw puzzle.
11:20I think it's a strategic mistake on the part of the U.S. that, you know, you are getting in bed with Pakistan, which is in bed with China.
11:26And China is the U.S.'s strategic competitor.
11:28It's the biggest geopolitical rival to the United States.
11:31And so far, Trump has taken a very soft approach towards China.
11:35You know, now they are even allowing chips to be sold to China.
11:37Advanced chips will be sold to China, provided the companies pay 15%, you know, of their earnings to the United States.
11:45So, do you, sir, you have been a very, very, you know, distinguished carrier of diplomacy.
11:50Do you think even U.S. is making a big mistake for their own consumers?
11:57Because ultimately, it will transfer to consumers.
11:59Oh, absolutely.
12:00I think eventually the tariffs that are being imposed, and look, U.S. called India a tariff king.
12:06But now the tariff king in the world is the United States.
12:08Because our average tariff is about 15.98%.
12:12The U.S. tariff today is 18.4%.
12:15So, it is now the tariff king of the world.
12:17But the fact is, tariffs are bringing in money.
12:20You know, they'll bring in about $100 billion a year for the United States.
12:23But the issue is, eventually, who will pay for these tariffs?
12:26These tariffs will be paid for by American consumers.
12:29So, what's going to happen is, this is going to ratchet up inflation in America.
12:33It's going to ratchet up prices in America.
12:35And I think that's when the chickens will come home to roost.
12:37Now, I will be diverting to a little second, the other issue.
12:42Mr. Munir is in U.S.
12:43He was in U.S. actually, two days back.
12:46And there was a black tie event where he threatened the world.
12:49He said, if we go down, we'll take the half of the world down.
12:53Also, he threatened that we are going to attack India.
12:55What is reported?
12:56I am not privy to that video.
12:57But what is reported widely, I'm telling you that.
13:00So, sudden acceleration from Pakistan, how do you look at it?
13:07So, there are two things.
13:08One is, Pakistan is rattled by our abrogation or putting in suspension the Indus Waters Treaty.
13:14Because, you know, Pakistan is heavily dependent on the waters of those rivers.
13:18And because now India has said that, you know, blood and water cannot flow together.
13:23And we are putting this treaty in suspension till such time as Pakistan, you know, changes its position on cross-water terrorism.
13:28So, because of that, Pakistan is obviously rattled.
13:31And what he is threatening is that if India builds a dam, which is, of course, not happening immediately, we are going to destroy those dams.
13:37We are going to send our missiles and take out those dams, which is easier said than then, of course.
13:41That's a different matter.
13:42But secondly, I think what he always tries to stoke is the fear of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
13:48Because, see, Pakistan always want external mediation.
13:51They are saying India is not talking to us, so please help us talk to India.
13:54Please come and counsel restraint on us.
13:56And they are deliberately, you know, provoking this kind of a, you know, nuclear blackmail just so that they can catch the attention of the world.
14:03And the world says, look, India and Pakistan, both of you are nuclear powers.
14:06You know, you have to talk to each other.
14:08So, I think this is part of the nuclear blackmail that Pakistan always indulges in.
14:11And that's why India has rightly called out the saber rattling on the part of Pakistan that how irresponsible it is coming from a country which is in possession of nuclear.
14:19But Prime Minister Modi has already said that there will be no nuclear blackmail will be tolerated now.
14:23Absolutely.
14:24We will definitely not tolerate nuclear blackmail.
14:26And that's why, you know, Operation Sindhuur is on pause.
14:28It has not stopped.
14:30So, now what next, sir?
14:32Pakistan, India, do you think, do you see it going further now?
14:36Let's take first India, US.
14:38I think we need to do three things.
14:40First, we must make it very clear to the United States that our strategic autonomy cannot be bargained.
14:46India's strategic choices cannot be dictated by Washington.
14:49India will decide what its strategic choices are, whether we need to buy oil from Russia or from the United States.
14:54It is our sovereign decision.
14:56No external party can have a role in that, number one.
14:59Number two, I think what we need to do is we need to, you know, continue to engage with the United States on trade without capitulation.
15:06Which means we clearly tell them that these are our red lines which we cannot cross.
15:10But we will see what are the other sectors in which we can sweeten the deal.
15:13Because let's not forget, I personally feel that, you know, opening up of the Indian economy is actually good for India.
15:20Because then our economy will be competitive, you know, then our exporters will be more competitive.
15:24We are too much protectionist?
15:25Yes, we are a bit too protectionist.
15:28So, I think a little bit of opening, calibrated opening in sectors in which mass employment is not at stake, I think would be useful.
15:34And third, and most importantly, we need to continue to leverage our value to the United States.
15:40We are the only, you know, strategic counterfoil to China, number one.
15:44We are the largest consumer market, you know, one of the world's largest consumer market.
15:49Many tech companies of the United States.
15:50Their biggest market is India now, even bigger than America.
15:53And thirdly, we are the best partner for the United States in sectors such as technology and defense.
15:59But when we say that India is counterweight to China, they are not even considering China as a rival now.
16:06They are dealing, or is it also temporary?
16:08No, I think this is also temporary right now, you know, because you see, you have to understand,
16:13the US economy is very heavily dependent on the Chinese economy.
16:16I am told that 80% of the US pharmaceutical companies, their APIs come from China.
16:21Then if you look at American companies like Tesla, NVIDIA, you know, all these companies,
16:27they are heavily, their supply chains are, and Apple, their supply chains are completely dependent on China.
16:33Because, you know, a large part of the iPhone production happens in China.
16:37For Tesla, the second biggest market after America is China.
16:40AMD also, now they are selling chips to China and China is buying all those chips.
16:44So, the US is very heavily dependent on China.
16:47And thirdly, most importantly, China controls 85% of the world's rare earths.
16:53You know, and these rare earths, these are the critical minerals that are needed for everything,
16:57from artificial intelligence, to washing machines, to missiles, to electric vehicles.
17:02So, that is why China has much more leverage over America.
17:06And Trump acknowledges that leverage.
17:09And that's why he is playing safe with China.
17:12As you know, they have extended the imposition of tariffs by another 90 days now.
17:16Thank you so much for talking to us, Vigalji.
17:18Thank you so much.
17:19My pleasure.
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