- 6 months ago
Sixty-three per cent of respondents said they are worried about President Donald Trump’s high tariffs on Indian goods, according to India Today-Cvoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome once again to our special broadcast, the India Today Mood of the Nation
00:14biannual survey brought to you in collaboration with Sea Boater, where we've done an exhaustive
00:19poll tracking some of the major developments of the last six months. Going back to the last poll
00:25in February, now we are back with our biannual survey and it's been a dramatic period in Indian
00:30politics and economy from Operation Sindur to now the tariff war with America. This is a special
00:38broadcast over two days exclusively here on India Today. We will look at all the hot button issues
00:45in a moment and now we will be focusing shortly on the big T factor, the tariff war. But first the
00:52headlines of the big findings from the India Today Mood of the Nation poll.
00:59The Nation poll suggests the NDA would win a comfortable majority yet again with over 320
01:07seats if elections were held today. But the BJP itself will fall short of a majority by getting 260 seats.
01:15The Congress rises in comparison to the previous mood of the nation would get 97 seats if elections
01:24were held today still fall short of the century mark. While Mr. Modi's satisfaction level remains high,
01:34that of the NDA are slipping. Unemployment is seen as the biggest failure of the Modi government.
01:41And Rahul Gandhi's ratings have climbed up as the leader of the opposition, but he still remains
01:50behind Mr. Modi in a direct fight as to who should be the Prime Minister.
01:55Okay, let's bring you now the T factor, the tariff factor that's been talked about. How should India react to
02:12what the Trump administration is doing? Has India dealt with it well or not? And should we be now worried
02:20about Trump's high tariffs? First, take a look at the methodology of our Mood of the Nation poll.
02:26The survey date July 1 to August 14, 2025. Respondents 54,788, all done by Sea Voter. All Lok Sabha segments
02:36across all states covered. 1,52,038 additional interviews from Sea Voter's regular tracker. 2,06,000 respondents
02:45considered for this report. Now, we'll analyze this with our special guest. Joining me is group
02:50editor of business today, Siddharth Zarabi. He's tracked the economy for years now. Maria Shakil,
02:56senior editor, is with us. So is Gaurav Savan. Preeti Chaudhary, my colleague, is also with us. Also
03:02joining us at this moment is Shankar Iyer, someone who's written exhaustively on India's political economy.
03:09And Arun Kumar, someone who's been a rather trenchant critic, if I may say so, of the Modi government.
03:15Appreciate all of you joining us here on the Mood of the Nation. And I'm going to come to the first big
03:21number that we are going to look at. The first question that we posed, are you worried about
03:27Trump's high tariffs on India? Remember, the 50% tariffs kicked in. Yes, say 63%. 63% or over 6 in 10 voters
03:38are worried. No, say 27%. 10% say, can't say or don't know. So the first emphatic number,
03:48Siddharth Zarabi, that we are getting is very clearly that there is concern over Trump's high
03:53tariffs. And remember, this poll is not just about exporters or those directly affected,
03:57but those who are suggesting a general sentiment of concern. Very clearly, Rajdeep, this is a mass
04:04number. And I would say that if this were to be conducted as a live survey or over the past week
04:10or so, this number of yes would have swung even further. You perhaps might have had 9 out of 10
04:15respondents. Look at that number of respondents that you spoke about. And I imagine there is a mass
04:20representation in that. And Trump's tariffs will hit mass employment generating sectors, textiles,
04:28gems and jewelry. Corporate India, organized India, those with, let's say, 10,000 crores of
04:35profitability and above. For example, there are well over 4,000 companies in that range. They might be
04:41able to withstand this far more better than middle and small companies and entrepreneurs alongside. And
04:49that is why I believe that this is a very important data. The timeframe clearly tells us those worries
04:56we're building up, especially on account of the first 25% being imposed, but with 25% and more
05:03importantly, Rajdeep, the rhetoric is very clearly worrying people. And just one more quick point,
05:08Rajdeep, this comes at a time when 2025 is very clearly a historic year as far as our taxation reforms
05:15are concerned. We have not had a year for several years now, except the corporate tax rate cut in 2019
05:22in September, where you have started the financial year with the income tax big bank cut, and you will
05:29come to Diwali with a massive GST cut. So direct taxes, indirect taxes being cut, and in between 100 basis
05:36points reduction in the cost of money, the interest rate by the Reserve Bank of India. And if you were to
05:42take that together in normal times, I would imagine there would have been a complete different response.
05:479 out of 10 should have said everything is Changa, but clearly the tariffs are dampening the mood.
05:52And let me clarify, remember this poll was done between July 1 to August 15, even before the tariffs
05:58kicked in. Now that the tariffs are a reality, it wasn't just pure arm twisting, the real concerns will
06:05only probably grow. So that's the first big number that should concern us at the moment. Shankar,
06:11I hear your first reaction as someone who's tracked the economy for years. Is this something that
06:15should worry the Modi government? A clear negative sentiment when it comes to Trump's tariffs there?
06:21Well, of course they're worried. And there is only so much you can do. I mean, Trump loves optics. I mean,
06:30his economics borders on, as I said earlier also, his economics borders on Hafta economics. I mean,
06:37he's collecting tariffs from his own companies who are selling chips to China, investing in Intel.
06:43Yesterday, there was a news that he's going to invest in a defense company. All kinds of conflicts of
06:49interests are at play there. But India has to play its own game at its own terms. So I think what the
06:56government has done till now is to sort of beef up consumption in terms of cutting taxes. But
07:05there's much more to do. Every time we reach some intersection like this where the economy is sort
07:10of challenged, there's a lot of talk about, you know, big bang reforms and stuff. The issue is that
07:18much of this requires to be done in the states. And the center has to let go of all the cholesterol,
07:26the regulatory hurdles that are there. I don't think that, you know, that happens. Once the crisis
07:33sort of abates, everybody presses the smooth button. There is a very strong consensus for weak reforms in
07:42India's political class. So this is hurting India. And this is why our manufacturing is at 12%,
07:50which is why agriculture is still a license large. I think these are issues that India needs to wake up
07:57to. This whole result that you showed that 63% are concerned will rise as soon as the impact kicks in
08:06on the employment. Already we have a problem with IT sector. We also have a problem with the
08:14Jemil Jewelry sector coming up. What is Tariq doing to us, Rajdi? It makes our products more expensive in
08:23the markets that we sell. It makes investment less attractive in India because of competing countries
08:31like Vietnam, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, all of them have lower tariffs.
08:38Okay. So in a sense, we are at a tipping point, some would say. We'll have to see how this plays
08:43out over the next couple of months. You never know what Donald Trump does next. But Professor Arun Kumar,
08:47I read a piece that you've already put out saying that this is very, very worrying, that you've got an
08:52economy that at some level was also showing signs of slowing down, not just because of regulatory
08:58cholesterol. And then comes this tariff hit that we will take. And it could hit labor-intensive
09:03industries. Are you surprised by these first numbers that 63% are worried? Is there a T-factor
09:09fear being put in people's minds? Because the US is not India's only export market, surely.
09:15So, Rajdeep, you are right. You know, this poll was in July, August, early before the tariffs kicked in.
09:23And most people thought that actually tariffs may not be very high because of India's strategic
09:28relationship. The Indian government itself was putting out most of the time that India would
09:34get a special treatment because of the relationship between Modi and Trump and also because of the
09:39strategic partnership that the USA needs vis-a-vis China. All that has been belied because as,
09:47you know, Vice President Vance has said it, Treasury Secretary has said it, Mr. Lavarro has said it,
09:52that India expects a strategic partnership, but it doesn't behave like a strategic partner.
09:57And they are referring to India's relationship within BRICS with Russia and China. So they want
10:03India to follow the USA much more closely. And they find India an easy target because it's not that
10:10India has something very special that it can offer, unlike China. That's why the treatment between China
10:16India is very asymmetric. China has been given additional 90 days, you know, to come to an
10:22agreement on tariffs, whereas India has been imposed this extra 25 percent because of Russian oil. Now,
10:28the two things that the US wants from India, it's very difficult for India to fulfill. One is reducing
10:35the relationship with the Russians, because India gets a lot of supplies, different supplies still
10:41from the Russians, whether it be Brahmo's missiles, whether it be S-400, whether it be Sukhoi. And
10:47opening up of agriculture and dairy products, that is not possible because 45 percent of the workforce is
10:54still there. So in other words, what President Trump wants, we are unable to fulfill. And that's why he's
11:00imposing these tariffs on us so as to try and make us fall in line. But as Shankar Iyer has already
11:06said and your data suggests that this tariff is going to make our labor-intensive sectors like gems
11:12and jewelry, like Apple, etc., very non-competitive vis-a-vis our other competitors like Vietnam,
11:19Cambodia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China. So our exports are going to suffer, especially in these areas,
11:26which are labor-intensive areas. And as you know, the unemployment situation has already been rather
11:31fraught with large amount of underemployment and large amount of disguised unemployment in the Indian
11:37economy. A lot of women suffering and some of these sectors are women-intensive also. So women's
11:44unemployment would rise further and youth unemployment would also rise. And the IT sector is not actually
11:50doing very good because now H-1B visas and green cards are also coming under threat from the USA.
11:57So those Indians who could go abroad, I think fewer of them will be able to go abroad and they'll stay
12:02here. So in other words, the unemployment situation is going to aggravate further. And therefore, if you
12:08were to conduct a poll now, the situation would look worse than what was there earlier.
12:13As I said, the poll is July 1 to August 15 and we will have numbers for unemployment. I think we've got
12:19a picture from our three economic specialists, but I want to look at in the backdrop of all that has
12:24happened. You've just heard, even today, President Trump's special advisor, Mr. Navarro, suggesting that
12:31the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine is Modi's war, almost suggesting as if India has completely
12:38funded the Russian war machine. Now, this is taking the relationship to a new law, a lack of trust,
12:44clearly. I got Maria to take the next question. Maria, one of the key questions, how should India
12:50deal with the United States? Give us a sense, Maria, of what the India Today Mood of the Nation poll done
12:56by Sea Voter is saying on that critical question. With 50% tariffs in effect and the tension between
13:04India and U.S. with regards to trade deal continuing, the question that we asked now was,
13:11how should India deal with U.S.? Remember, there have been series of statements which have come in
13:16from the Donald Trump administration. A very provocative one coming today from his close
13:23aide and advisor, Mr. Navarro, who said that it is Modi's war in the context of Russia-Ukraine war.
13:30When we asked that question, the response was, no compromise, negotiate. Just as Prime Minister
13:36has been speaking about that he has put the interest of India first, that India will be doing this deal
13:43only on its own terms and conditions. The interest of the farmers and also the small and medium enterprises
13:50are primary. Then the response was also that can India handle high tariffs? 23% were of the opinion
14:00that they can, that India can handle, that Indian business are resilient. A very small number,
14:07just 9% were of the opinion that India should accept the United States demands. So India is standing with
14:16with the larger sentiment that there is no question of giving in to the bully that is coming in,
14:23the bullying which is happening from the United States. Now to the next question. Remember this
14:29image which emerged from the White House, that famous lunch meet which happened between Donald Trump
14:35and Field Marshal and Field Marshal Asim Munir. The question that we asked was India's response to US
14:42Pakistan growing ties. How should India be responding to it? A whopping 59% were of the opinion that India
14:50should look at a counter strategy, in turn strengthen its ties with Russia. Also, a 29% were of the opinion
14:59that India should increase its military readiness and just 6% feel that there should be some kind of
15:06dialogue with Pakistan, although India and Pakistan will be playing against each other in September in Asia Cup.
15:15Fascinating those numbers that are coming on. Remember, don't compromise, continue negotiations is 61%.
15:23India should accept US demands is only 9%. We'll come to the Pakistan question later. But first,
15:30how should India deal with the United States? I'm also going... Just the way... Yes, there goes Gaurav Samad.
15:35Go ahead Gaurav. Just the way India is dealing with the United States of America, don't buckle under a bully.
15:42India used to say that about China, stare the dragon down exactly the same way, stare Trump down. It will take
15:49trouble. Yes, there will be additional tariffs. There may be additional tariffs. There will be an impact on H-1B visas.
15:55But then it depends. You buckle under pressure. Now, there will be pressure that will come throughout Trump tenure.
16:00It's not as if you kowtow now and, you know, he'll relent. Tomorrow, he'll demand something else.
16:05Day after, he'll demand something else. And then he will want to dictate your foreign policy.
16:09Do you want America to dictate our foreign policy? Whether we want to be friends with Russia or not, or with China or not,
16:14whether we're UK or not, clearly not. So, we will have to go through this hardship. You look the bully in the eye.
16:20You look the bully in the eye. With rhetoric or with actual acts? I've just got a report which says,
16:25the USDA has welcomed the government's decision to remove import duty on cotton. It happened very
16:30quietly on the 15th of August. So, you know, in the backdrop of all this trident rhetoric, Swadeshi 2.0,
16:37we're going to take on the United States. There's also a parallel track which seems to be going on.
16:41Let's negotiate for a good defense deal with the United States. Let's find areas of commonality.
16:45You're saying, look the bully in the eye. Rajdeep, it's a three-pronged...
16:48That's good for domestic consumption. Does that work?
16:51No. So, it's a three-pronged strategy. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to America
16:56in February immediately after Trump swearing in, the compact that was agreed to had three prongs.
17:02One was high-tech cooperation, the other was defense cooperation, and the third was a trade agreement.
17:07Now, when it comes to your defense cooperation, you're just talking about inking a $1 million
17:12404G, 404 jet engine deal. You're having your high-tech technology cooperation in terms of that
17:16NISAR satellite. Your military exercises are continuing. Places like agriculture and daily
17:23sector where the Prime Minister says, there's no way I'm going to compromise with the interests of
17:27my farmers. At the same time, things like blueberries and mulberries, those are areas that they're talking
17:33about moving forward if possible. So, there has to be a give-and-take, but you will not have America
17:38dictate terms to India. Anyone else wants to step in? Pranav, you've been tracking this for a very
17:44long time. Are we seeing India now looking at America the bully in the eye or is it two bullies
17:49who only till the other day were great friends? Two bullies.
17:53All I am saying is that these are two countries which feel very strongly about their national
18:01interests, want to protect it at all costs. America believes what's in their interest,
18:04we believe what's in our interest. Can the twain meet or not? At the moment, they're not.
18:09Donald Trump has completely upended this relationship.
18:12No, but this happens among best of the friends as well. You have to draw certain boundaries,
18:16even the best of the friends. There are certain things which you do not share
18:19and you can have your perception differences. But isn't it double standard? You put 50%
18:23tariffs on India, you don't put it on China, you give China a 90-day recovery. What kind of a friend
18:28is this? No doubt about it. And that's why we have this difference. We have this difference and this
18:33is well recognized. Have we been caught unawares? Let's be honest, we were talking of trade
18:39negotiations. Our team was to be in India last week. I won't call it that we were caught unaware.
18:44We could see it coming. But we dealt with this trade negotiation as we dealt with other trade
18:49negotiations. Look, India-UK FTA took around three years for the completion. We know and we
18:55understand that trade negotiations are very complex processes. It takes required times. We had that
19:00early mover's advantage. Definitely. We were the first one to start that negotiation. Even before
19:06traveling to United States, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government gave, you know,
19:11good kind of relaxation in the budget. February 2025 budget, we have given that relaxation and we
19:17thought that it might get… It's a good signal.
19:19Raghdeep, yeah, go ahead. Go ahead. Yes, Mariya then Kreeti.
19:23Look, Raghdeep, I think what India thought was that Donald Trump 1.0 is similar to Donald Trump's
19:30second administration. First Trump administration, they had almost one. They knew that Mr. Trump is
19:37transactional. This is the way to go forward. Then he came up with surprise one after the other.
19:41What New Delhi did not really sense was that how to deal with a man in White House who's taking to
19:48truth social, to declare foreign policy, to declare, to make outlandish, outrageous statements,
19:54very, very provocative, going to the extent of saying that the Indian economy is dead. How do you deal with
19:58such a man who's declaring everything on truth social? If I may have one point. See, we are
20:03discussing today in context of Peter Navarro's statement. Let me read the social media post of
20:07Peter Navarro of 24th of June 2023. And what he says, he says that while India should be natural
20:13ally of United States, communist China has invaded it twice to pose as existential threat from ships in
20:18the Indian Ocean and large bombers and fighter jets bases in Tibet. India and Modi cannot rely…
20:24cannot really be trusted to have our back. This is what Peter Navarro said way back in June 2023,
20:30much before he became the advisor of President Donald Trump. So look, if you see and scan his
20:35entire social media timeline, you can find that this guy has, you know…
20:39I am only going by our poll numbers. How should India deal with the US? Preeti, 61% saying don't
20:44compromise, continue negotiation. Only 23% are saying India capable of handling high tariffs.
20:50And only 9% saying India should accept US demands.
20:53Rajdeep, I just want to reflect for a moment on the first question. Are you worried about
20:56Trump's high tariffs? 63% is a massive number. And this is even before the tariffs kicked in.
21:01That kind of anxiety, and this is before the tariffs kicked in. It's a huge number. Now, you know,
21:06how India deals with America on an international stage is one thing. But how our government deals
21:12with it on a domestic front is another thing. And it's a double-edged sword. At one end, it opens up
21:18an all-new political theatre for the Prime Minister in which he always flourishes, which is a direct,
21:24you know, contest with, you know, Trump. Domestic politics will feed off that where the BJP is concerned.
21:32But there is a double-edged sword. Because along with this domestic politics, which the BJP and the
21:37government will use, you also have to have domestic economic policies to absorb the impact. Because
21:43unemployment is a huge situation. And it will filter down. So the pinch will be felt.
21:49Okay, let's look at these, those opportunities. Because Siddharth, one of the interesting questions
21:53that we posed. The Mood of the Nation poll done by SeaVoter asked, who is responsible for the breakdown
21:59of trade deal negotiation? 54% are blaming the United States and Donald Trump. So very clearly,
22:04most Indians believe Donald Trump is responsible for it. India 22%, both 16%, neither 1%. So,
22:13it could be possible for India to play victim now. Prime Minister Modi has done it in the past,
22:17and he can invoke nationalists' experience. Look at it, that here is Donald Trump giving special
22:22benefits to China that he denies to India, and thereby play the nationalist card all over again.
22:27India's communication on this issue is better than Operation Sindhur. That is what the government has
22:31managed to convince people. That's the reason. Rajdeep, you believe that our communication is better,
22:35but communication… At the end of the day, if I start losing livelihoods, I'm not worried about
22:40communication. Siddharth. Rajdeep, one of the key things is, and I'm going to say this straightforward,
22:44the 22% who believe that India is responsible are ill-informed or misinformed. Why is India not
22:51responsible? Because right for seven months, you have negotiated in earnest, clause by clause, item by item.
23:00Look what happened. So, what changed? Rajdeep, just last 24 hours. Yes. In the last 24 hours,
23:06the government of India, senior officials, many of us who have spoken there and were part of those
23:11informal briefings, said that all communication lines are open. You referred to the defense deal
23:16and other things. We have continued. What happens? Six hours later, three members of the administration
23:24came out and launched fresh salvo. So, clearly, Rajdeep, India has tried to ring-fence its conversation
23:31and restrict it to trade. We have not brought in ideological matters. Peter Navarro is an ideologue,
23:38a hawk on tariffs, not now, for over five decades. So is Donald Trump. So is Donald Trump.
23:44Donald Trump's been talking about Japan in the 1980s. My limited point to you, did we misread
23:50Donald Trump? Did Donald Trump misread us? Well, how do you respond? If you go in, do something,
23:55shake hands and come out and three hours later, you are hit by a tweet. You are hit by a statement
23:59that India is a dead economy. You are hit by a statement that it is Modi's war in Ukraine. You've
24:04got to be deluded. And I don't want to use any other stronger words to say that we are responsible.
24:10Rajdeep, just one fact, one quick fact. Yeah, go ahead, go ahead. $350 billion of Russian money
24:15seized by the U.S. Yes. Do you know how many sanctions have been imposed? 31,000 sanctions.
24:211,200 companies have quit the Russian economy. The biggest buyer of Russian products, commodities,
24:27oil is China. And we are not even talking about the illegal shipping trade. Yet, you come out and say,
24:33eh, bhaiya, yeh, India nae kiya. You've got to be raving mad and not a- Why? Why? Why? Why? I keep asking,
24:39what has changed? What has changed? What has changed? What has changed in the promise? No, it is ideological.
24:44Absolutely. It is because we do- Ideological. No, we are not bowing down and taking a knee
24:49before an emperor who is the- Who is now the biggest representative of an imperial power.
24:57So, Donald Trump- That's exactly the conversation this will play out. It will be Narendra Modi,
25:02the prime minister taking on an imperial power. That's the truth. Why should we give him credit for
25:05the ceasefire? That's the projection. It's not the projection, it's the truth.
25:08Give a Nobel Peace Prize to Indian negotiators. Give them a Padmu Vibhushan, a Padmu Shri.
25:14They took on, they took on the U.S. for seven months. No, no, no, no. What did the U.S. say?
25:20One minute. One minute. One minute. Just a minute. Just a minute. Just one line.
25:26Just one line. Yes, sir. Just 12 hours ago, 16 hours ago,
25:30the U.S. finance minister on a television channel says, India has tapped us along for seven months.
25:38He is basically saying, give a Nobel Peace Prize to the negotiating smarts of the Indian negotiating team.
25:44We took that bully head-on on trade. Yet, we are ring-fincing the discussion saying,
25:49we are open to business on other side. Okay. Monday, Monday, we are going to have a debate.
25:53Siddharth Zarabi versus Peter Navarro, hopefully.
25:55But, Yashwan Deshmukh joins us of Sibota, who's done the poll. Yashwan, we've just given the initial numbers.
26:18It seems to be suggesting there is concern over high tariffs. We can sit in a television studio
26:22and wave the national flag. People are possibly going to lose livelihoods. There are exporters who
26:29are worried. There are people who are worried that this could lead to a slowdown of the Indian economy.
26:32Various numbers are doing their own. Does your poll suggest that, as well as the fact that Indians will
26:37stand by India at a moment of crisis? That both these sentiments are playing parallel.
26:42So, public is very clear. They know that the economic distress is there. They know what kind
26:48of tariffs are going to hit them. It's not that they do not know. They understand. Yet,
26:53they want you to stand up to the bully. So, see, Donald Trump is a weird phenomena. It hit India twice,
27:02particularly in the ruling disposition. You know, with the one tweet about Swiss Fire,
27:06it took the entire pro-narrative go down, as far as the narrative around Swiss Fire is concerned.
27:12The facts of Swiss Fire. So, yeah. So, Sindhu, which was supposed to help
27:17in a narrative way to the BJP and the NDA, it did not. You know, that's a fact. But,
27:21what was not supposed to help the BJP and the NDA was the tariff, but it is helping, because
27:28standing up to the bully is what people are appreciating. Okay. Okay. So, that's the one
27:32point. Okay. One more thing, one data point, which is beyond the MOTN, in our PSC where we did the
27:38tracking during the political stock exchange during the operation Sindhur. Priti, you remember when we
27:44asked whom should we trust more in the time of crisis? 68% said Russia, 13% said America. One, three.
27:54I think Donald Trump with one tweet probably undid 25 years of hard work which Indo, Indian and American
28:03diplomats really worked hard on that one. Which incidentally, diplomats on both sides are trying to
28:09ensure that 25 years of that hard work does not go down the drain. Exactly. So, what happened to the
28:14chemistry? You were there when Donald Trump and the prime minister was meeting. There was chemistry
28:18in February. Now, there seems to be not even physics. You know, I have been a part of that chemistry,
28:23reporting that chemistry. Yes. Whether it was Howdy Modi in Houston, Texas or Namaste Trump in Ahmedabad
28:29or January, you know. He was a bully. Wasn't he a bully then? Or we misled the bully? No. He, this is where
28:35He has transformed. He is showing his true colors. India has been consistent. Okay. India has been consistent.
28:41Okay. Let me just take that to Shankara. Where Trump got India wrong. Where Trump and his advisors have got
28:49completely wrong about India that they can, they can bully the leaders around the globe. The problem is
28:57India is a democracy. Here, if they, if the public understands that no matter who is in power,
29:04they cannot take a stand which is against the public sentiment. Okay. I think the public sentiment has
29:11gone against this kind of bullying and no matter how hard he tries, even if Rahul Gandhi is the prime
29:16minister of India, he will have to stand up to this bullying. Point taken. Because public wants the
29:22Indian leadership to stand up to a bully. But, Yashwant, can I come up, can I just come up with a
29:25rider? I agree. Just a rider to what he's saying. Public wants him to stand up to a bully. And this
29:30is something in which the prime minister flourishes in a direct contest with Donald Trump standing up in
29:35a bully. But if you're going to use it domestic politically, you have to come up with economic
29:40policies. Because now, when the financial pinch comes at the back of these tariffs, one of the
29:50main core contention has been with every time you do the surveys, unemployment. It's always on top of
29:55the people's mind. That will pinch. So you have to come up with economic policies to absorb this.
30:02Okay, you made that point. If they try to up the ante and America may just do that with the H1B
30:08visas. So every adversity is an opportunity. And that's exactly what India has capitalized on even
30:15in the past. That's the point that America has not war game when they went ahead with this. Look,
30:20America made Japan count out to it. America made South Korea. Those are treaty allies of the United States
30:25of America. European Union had to buckle under pressure. And now Japan is walking out because
30:30they don't know what these guys are doing. Because they've seen India stand toll. They're seeing
30:35India stand toll to American bullying. Let me get one or two more voices in. One of our questions also
30:44was and this is linked again to a sense of national sentiment over this. Is India buying Russian oil in
30:50its national interest? Now, many believe that this has led to profiteering of course of a few
30:54corporates close to the government. But what do people say? Yes, say 69 percent. India should
30:59continue to buy Russian oil. It's in its national interest. No, say 16 percent. Given these numbers,
31:04Shankar are here. There's a wave of nationalism that says that we've got to stand up to the bully
31:09and America is seen as the big bully. There are others and the first question becomes relevant in
31:14that who are also worried about or anxious about Trump's high tariffs. How do you see this play out?
31:19Sovereignty on one side versus policy making on the other?
31:23Well, nobody has ever accused the Americans of knowing history or geography very well. So,
31:29let's sort of move away from their contention. Donald Trump was looking for a geopolitical deal.
31:39Where India messed up is that they have focused on the trade deal. So, the Ukraine war is the albatross
31:49that is hanging around the Western world. Now, the reason why Korea or others count out
31:57to do what they want, because their defense budget is funded by the American money. EU agreed to whatever
32:05was to be agreed because of that. But they've also done a bit of sleight of hand. Japan is supposed to
32:11invest 600 billion dollars, no details available. EU is supposed to invest 500 billion dollars, no details
32:18available. So, the bottom line is there is no MRP or maximum retail price when you're negotiating with a
32:26bully or a transactional person. There is no doubt that Americans understand India's compulsions and
32:34but they're just trying to see whether they can break the bill. The point here is what are your options?
32:41So, the prime minister is now going to Japan. He is meeting people in China, which is another relationship
32:49which is fraught with some issues. So, India's only answer in the long run would be to fix the issues
32:58of its domestic economy about employment, about scaling, about funding. I mean, India wants to export to
33:05the world. How many banks in India are willing to go and fund exports abroad? What is the kind of debt
33:14that you have? Now, India will have to create policies to help those affected by the tariff. Do you have the
33:21depth in the fiscal to do that? So, you'll have to raise resources. So, this is the point I'm making
33:26that this is not just about rhetoric. This has to also become now about policy making. There's an
33:31important GST meeting, for example, in a few days from now. The government is going to have to get
33:35its act together. This is a wake-up call. You know, Arun Kumar, when I look at those numbers on Russian
33:41oil, I've heard a lot of people saying, maybe we should do a cost-benefit analysis. I had Raghuram Rajan
33:47on the show. He says, it's time to do a proper cost-benefit. How much has Indian consumer really
33:52gained? How much have private companies gained? How much have we as a country gained by buying cheap
33:57Russian oil? Do you believe these are all valid questions to raise at the moment? Because there will
34:01be those who will say, we are not buckling like Gaurav Savan under any kind of pressure from the
34:05Americans. We are going to continue, even though silently, quietly, we have reduced our dependence on
34:11Russian oil just in the last couple of months. We don't want to make a noise about it. That's the
34:15only difference. So, Rajdeep, you're right. We have to look at the big picture and then come to
34:20the specifics. The big picture is that we didn't start the tariff war. Before Trump came, our average
34:27tariffs were 17%, US tariffs were 3%, you know. So, what Trump is doing is imposing, actually,
34:33protectionist tariffs. These are not reciprocal tariffs. At best, the reciprocal tariffs should have been 14%,
34:38because that was the difference between them and us. But what he's doing is trying to bring jobs back
34:43to the US. Now, that's not going to happen because US wages are very high compared to what India and
34:49China has to offer. So, you know, what an Indian worker earns in two months is earned by an American
34:55auto worker in one day. So, therefore, you know, it's not going to happen that, you know, all the
35:00production is going to go back to the US, etc. So, I think very quickly, what you'll see is
35:05stagflation conditions rise in the USA. And that will actually create problems within the US for the
35:11US economy and for Trump. The trifactor that is helping Trump in terms of the judiciary, the
35:17legislature, and the presidency, that is under threat in the coming elections next year. Now,
35:23if the trifactor goes, US may not be able to continue with the imposition of the tariffs that are there at
35:29the moment because it's the power of the Congress… But that's a year from now. Professor Arun Kumar,
35:34Professor Arun Kumar, that's a year from now. The elections are November next year. The fact is,
35:38at the moment, you support the general national mood seems to be stand up to the bullying.
35:44Do you believe that's the right stand? Yeah. So, we've been, as you rightly say,
35:48we've been quietly actually buckling under. For instance, during the budget also, we reduced tariffs,
35:54we've increased the import of energy, we are increasing defense expense, etc. But that's not
36:00going to satisfy Trump. Therefore, what do we do? We need to actually, as Preeti and others have said,
36:06we need to actually look at the internal economy and boost the internal economy, especially the
36:11unemployment situation, because that is where I think the mood of the nation would switch. Because if
36:17this continues with a lot of unemployment increasing, especially also with H1 visa and the green card,
36:22etc., all that creating a climate of, you know, despondency among the youth, then I think the
36:27situation would change. So, I think very quickly, the government needs to increase the demand within
36:32the economy. That does not benefit the exporters, because the GST is not what is going to help them,
36:38but the general demand might increase and investment… I have been hearing that for the last couple of
36:43years with due regard, Professor Arun Kumar, and no one disagrees. We need to stimulate demand. I'm just
36:48seeing a poll, you have cover up business today. Business confidence is at an all-time low for 11
36:54quarters. Domestic demand is tepid. Many Indian big business are not investing in the big projects.
36:59All of this were talked about in the last budget, but it's not translating on the ground. Is this a
37:03wake-up call in that sense? And the BTC4 survey that you refer to was conducted with around 500 plus
37:10CEOs in the timeframe of July 10 to 25. I just want to make one point. This survey, particularly the latter part
37:18of it, comes after the two rounds of US tariffs. The first US tariff kicked it on 30th July. The second one
37:24kicked in a week later. Now, given that, what is very clear, Rajdeep, at the top end, there is nervousness of
37:31grim tidings. Right. And at the mass level which this survey captures, there is nervousness. One quick point,
37:36Rajdeep, and why we are missing the point. Let's not forget that India buckled in once. And that memory, perhaps, is
37:44guiding our stance now. In May 2019, we stopped buying Venezuelan and Iranian oil. Yes, Iranian oil.
37:52One more quick point. But that time there were sanctions. This time there are no sanctions.
37:55Let me complete that point. Yes. We did that. And why there is no trust of the US stance is evidenced
38:02by that. The second thing, it's three years plus and counting. Petrol diesel prices have remained frozen.
38:08They have not increased. There have, in fact, been some adjustments. They have not decreased either.
38:12Not substantially. Not substantially. Not substantially. There has been an adjustment.
38:15Not substantially. No, no. Just one final point. The benefit has not passed on to the consumer.
38:19Had the benefit been passed on to the consumer, the same consumer. Let me just finish that point.
38:23Let me just finish the point. In regard to the survey and the question on Russian oil,
38:28all I'm saying is, I guarantee that all these respondents, 200,000 plus respondents,
38:35no one knows the color of the oil when it is filled in his motorcycle lot, whether it is Russian oil,
38:41whether it is some other gulf oil. They don't care about it. What they are caring about is,
38:46are you standing up to the bully who has mistreated you in the past? In the past, you agreed with this.
38:52You know, can I, can I, can I, can I say…
38:54Just a moment. Because there are two more important points. They are linked to this.
38:58The survey has also asked, opinion on India, China engaging more closely. Remember,
39:02Prime Minister goes to the SCO to China in a few days from now.
39:06Today. Strengthens India's position globally, 52%.
39:12India, China engage more closely, strengthen. Look at how the world is changing. The same China that
39:17was seen to be fused with the Pakistan military during Operation Sindhu, weakens India's security
39:22interests, 26%. No significant impact, 13%. Maria has already given the numbers. If US
39:28increases support to Pakistan, how should India respond? Strengthens ties with other allies like
39:33Russia, 59%. Increased military readiness, 29%. Seek dialogue with Pakistan, 6%. But Gaurav Saman,
39:40till the other day, you were calling China the big enemy, that we have to take on the Chinese. Now,
39:44we are about to go and embrace the Chinese. I hope we are not going on a jhula again. But the fact is,
39:48we are going to China. And we are embracing them. And the public is saying, yes, this will strengthen
39:52our position globally. So now, you see, America is the big bully. And our enemy in the neighborhood,
39:58we want to embrace. My enemy is always a friend. But enemy is enemy. China is having its own
40:03relationship being built with the Trump administration on the other side. And that's
40:06exactly, Rajdeep, where you see the global chakra view. Things are changing so fast across the world.
40:13Gaurav Saman is changing fast. No longer you see China as the main enemy.
40:17My show is India first. And I always look at Indian interests first.
40:20So India first is now tying up, moving closer to China in your view?
40:25In case, in case China. Moving closer to Putin in your view?
40:28You, Putin always. Russia always. Russia has always been. Look, a friend in need is a friend indeed.
40:34Okay. Right? Russians have been close to India throughout. Since our independence,
40:40since Indira Gandhi's 1971 operations, since Kargil War of 1999. So India-Russia relationship has
40:47withstood the test of time. And China? China, Wangi came to India. Wangi,
40:52the Chinese foreign minister and member of the Politburo. He made it very clear, Rajdeep,
40:56that they have realized that invocity with India was not in the interest of the two people.
41:00Four months ago, the Chinese were fully- But that's a reality.
41:04That's a reality you have to live with. So, permit me to finish my point.
41:09The point is, world equation is changing. It's a changing geopolitical equation. You have to see
41:14Bharat ka fayda. Where do you get the maximum interest? Real politics. Real politics.
41:19Your survey also shows that. The survey shows that. Public has no problem if you deal with China.
41:25I tell you, public is very clear. Number one, institutional memory of public about Russia-India
41:32friendship is very high. Very high. And I was taken to a surprise because 80% of Indian electorate
41:38right now was born after the 71 war. So, I was thinking this would not be in the public memory,
41:45but it was. Number one. Number two, during the sindoor in the PSE, Priti, you remember,
41:50we even asked about China and the Pakistan. During the conflict, majority of the Indians said,
41:57Pakistan hai ni ladai meh, it is actually the China whom we are fighting. It is a single front. So,
42:03as far as public is concerned, public is like, you know, earlier- No, no, but now 52% are saying we should
42:09engage with China. Let me finish. Let me finish. 52% are saying engage with China. The same country
42:14was saying which was striking us during sindoor. Let me finish. Earlier, these kinds of discussions
42:19were limited to studios and the experts of the diplomacy and the and other fields. Now,
42:27the common man on the street is very clear. China remains an adversary. Okay? Russia remains a friend.
42:36America remains something which we have to be extremely careful about. We are not comfortable.
42:43As long as, just like Gaurav said, as long as on the India first policy, if it happens to be that we
42:49shake hands with China in order to stand up to bully right now, people are okay with that. That doesn't mean
42:55people are saying trust China. Okay. Hell no. Do not trust China. Yes, PT and then Maria. Go ahead.
43:01Yeah. You know, I actually- And then Pranam. You know, Rajiv, the fact is with all the categories
43:04that Yashwant just named, the line gets blurred somewhere and I'll tell you when it gets blurred.
43:08Because you had Siddharth who says, somebody who's getting fuel filled in their motorcycle doesn't
43:14quite care whether it's coming from Russia or any other country, but they are, you know, pleased with the
43:18fact that we are looking a bully in the eye. We often forget of the last man standing in the queue.
43:22And that person reminded us in the last 2024 election who she or he is. And I'll give you
43:28an example there. Because have this conversation three months from now, if there is a trickle-down effect
43:33to a person who's on a dhyadi basis in a textile unit in Banaras or in Karnal. When they are laid off,
43:39they don't care whether we are looking at somebody in the eye. They are bothered that their dhyadi for the day
43:44is not coming. And therefore, you need economic policy. One second, one second.
43:49One second. Let me finish my point. The 80 crore people that India feeds, the 80 crore people that
43:55India has fed out of your tax and my tax and her tax, that money is our civilizational ethos.
44:02The last man in the line should be fed once you. And then, Preeti, instead of buying make in America
44:08or made in Europe, when she buys more made in India, when you and I buy more made in India,
44:13it helps the last man. Let Preeti respond.
44:16You know, let me just give you an example, right? I will hop back to 2024 elections in UP,
44:23especially in Eastern UP. What was one of the main, which was, you know, which only I would think the
44:27ground reporters tapped on. Galla mil rai. Galla is free Russian. Galla mil rai. Naukri nahi hai.
44:33The minute that naukri goes, you can, you know, what are you going to do with Swadeshi?
44:38She can't or he can't afford like two square meals a day.
44:40And that's where every Indian needs to come forward.
44:42We need policies. We need to look the bully in the eye.
44:46Look the bully in the eye.
44:48Look the bully in the eye. Come up with strong economic policy.
44:51We can't keep breastfeeding as a high-hung fit guy.
44:54Let's not shout at each other. Let's talk to each other.
44:59The fact at the end of the day is if I'm losing my job in a toy factory or a small garments factory,
45:05I'm not interested in looking the bully in the eye as much as how will I get my job at the earliest.
45:11In that sense, Pranam, in that sense, you track diplomacy. Are diplomats and those in government aware,
45:16diplomats in particular, aware that, you know, looking at the US, the bully in the eye may look very good,
45:22may grab you headline Swadeshi 2.0. It's going to have to translate into reality on the ground
45:27in ensuring that jobs are protected.
45:29Absolutely.
45:30Are they aware of that?
45:31They are aware about this.
45:32That you can't allow the rhetoric to spiral out of control.
45:34No, no.
45:35It's not about rhetoric.
45:36It's not about rhetoric.
45:37In the 24 hours, we are talking Swadeshi 2.0.
45:40No, no.
45:41Hearing an Aam Aatmi party and they say MP, I'm going to boycott all US products.
45:46But that is one particular MP.
45:49But this country was much poorer when we stood up against the mightiest British empire.
45:53Much poorer than this situation.
45:55Having said that, this remains a concern.
45:58Take the example.
45:58We also have to take it into account that the states which are going to get impacted by these tariff sanctions.
46:04Andhra Pradesh.
46:06Take the example of Andhra Pradesh, which is governed by Chandrababu Naidu.
46:09With a lot of shrimp exporters.
46:10Shrimp export.
46:10Shrimp doesn't have the shelf life like of textile or jewelry.
46:14It is very perishable commodity.
46:16Around 32% of our export, shrimp export goes to United States.
46:21It is going to get impacted.
46:22This is worth about $2 billion.
46:24This will impact us.
46:25That's why Prime Minister said that I'm going to stand for my small farmers, my fishermen.
46:31This has to be protected.
46:32How?
46:33The question is how?
46:34You see, I come back to it.
46:36Just a minute.
46:37Just a minute, sir.
46:38I'll tell you why.
46:39Is it being targeted against those states which can be politically sensitive?
46:43Okay.
46:44Pranav, the question is asked and that's why this becomes important.
46:47Maria, please dive in.
46:48India's handling of the economy.
46:50The MOTN poll has asked that.
46:52In August 2025, 47.8% are saying it's good.
46:56Average is 16.4%.
46:58Poor is 30.2%.
46:59So, if I look at average and poor, roughly it's around the same.
47:02Half say it's good, half say it's average and poor.
47:04It's a split wording.
47:06Unemployment situation.
47:07That's where the real problem comes.
47:09MOTN August 2025 says very serious is 50.7%.
47:13Somewhat serious is 20.8%.
47:15At the two, it's coming to a whopping 72%.
47:18Not concerned is only 10.6%.
47:20Not very serious is 6.7%.
47:22Not at all serious is 5.04%.
47:24So, therefore, when you look at the one big negative that the government is facing at the moment, it's unemployment.
47:30On the back of it, when tariffs come in, you're going to have to find solutions in a reasonable timeframe.
47:37Is there a concern, therefore, when you look at these numbers, that this is going to be the big challenge for the government?
47:42Yes, people are with the national flag.
47:44Yes, they want us to stand up to the bully.
47:46Yes, they are willing to even have better relations with China, but not at the cost of losing my knockery.
47:52Absolutely. Rajdeep, look, this has to be juxtaposed with what most people are saying, that 61% are very high enough percentage saying that there should be no compromise whatsoever, continue to negotiate.
48:03And that is where I think the Prime Minister's words come in, where he said, even at the personal cost, I will ensure that I will protect the interests of the agriculture, the farmers and also the MSMEs.
48:16I think that's where the government's communication, and I will go back to the point that I made, is more effective on this, where there is almost near unanimity that Prime Minister Modi's political will has been displayed.
48:28He stands firm for India and the Indian interest.
48:31Therefore, Shankar Iyer, very quickly, how do you translate the narrative of standing up to the bully to ensuring that the unemployment situation doesn't slip out of control?
48:41It's where you've always spoken about regulatory cholesterol, does it now go beyond that?
48:46Now, there's a wake-up call that we need answers now. It can't be pushed into the future.
48:50Ease of doing business committee, it will not work.
48:54Well, just on a lighter note, this poll will send the WhatsApp world universe into a tizzy because last year they were doing Havan for Donald Trump and boycotting Chinese goods.
49:09This year they will have to do Havan for Chinese goods and boycott Donald Trump.
49:14So the whole world will go around this way. But, you know, the point is that if you take the last three budgets and the announcements that were made, they promised 20,000 crores for R&D in the private sector, money is yet to be dispersed because they don't know how to disperse the money.
49:35An herbal challenge fund of one lakh crore has been set up, which is still not finalized.
49:42The Niti Aayog was supposed to release, what is the whole tariff, domestic economy, regulatory cholesterol about?
49:51You should spur competition among states. Why is Tamil Nadu getting all the investment, doing better? Because they're doing something right.
49:58So other states need to do that. Investment conferences are held all over the country, you know, Magnetic, Maharashtra, Kinetic, Karnataka, all that stuff.
50:06Nobody knows how much investment has come or whether it's translated. Let's do an audit.
50:11The Niti Aayog has the bandwidth to do this audit, but obviously there is a political cause to doing this audit, so they have not done it.
50:18So why not take a proactive thing? Why not have a chief minister's conference where they come up and say, I am going to slash these, these, these, these regulations.
50:30This is the time. I am going to allow these kind of investments. This is the time bound program. I have adopted these policies. Let's not wait for another committee, another task force.
50:42Point taken. Point taken. We have a big GST council meeting coming up on, on September 3. We'll see what happens there.
50:48But Arun Kumar very quickly, do you believe that this unemployment situation, therefore juxtaposed against this surge of nationalism led by Gaurav Savant here?
51:00You didn't, he didn't do a haven. I'm told about when Donald, he would, he necessarily didn't do a haven for Donald Trump, but this surge of nationalism that we're not going to bow down to American pressure pressure.
51:10But at the same time, the pressure will have real effects. Quick response. Time to, time to get our act together.
51:16So, so politics can always trump economics. You know, there is no doubt about that. In India, we've seen that again and again after demonetization, etc. But as Siddharth was saying, the problem is demand. If industry doesn't have enough demand, investment would suffer. And because the sentiment has gone down in industry, at the moment, investment would suffer further.
51:38Now, how do you get investment up? For that, you need to generate demand in the unorganized sector, which is 94% of the employment. So you need to have higher incomes in agriculture, you need to have higher incomes in the micro sector, which employs 11.5 crore people.
51:53If you can generate demand with this 11.5 crore micro sector and another 11 crore farmers, then you have a big demand coming up. Unfortunately, GST rate cut will not do that, because bulk of the GST is paid by the organized sector. As Arun Jetli used to say, 5% units pay 95% of the tax.
52:12So if you cut the GST rates, it will benefit the organized sector, but not necessarily the unorganized sector. Similarly, the income tax rate cut, which is expected to boost demand, actually the benefit will go about 3 crore individuals out of 145 crore. That is inadequate to generate demand at the lower levels.
52:29So what you need to do is push demand at the lower levels, then you will have, you know, the organized sector also investing more because the organized sector balance sheets are very good.
52:38They have large amount of money, but because of lack of demand, they're not investing enough. So therefore, it's a win-win situation.
52:45If you go for the unorganized sector, the small, medium and the agriculture sector, if you go for them, I think you'll have a recovery.
52:53Rajdeep, this is not as serious as an economic problem as we saw during the worst period of COVID. You saw the government respond to that with a multitude of programs.
53:02We've been reporting over the last several days that there is work underway in the government, different departments talking about a response that includes support for the export sector, and there more will roll out.
53:14And I just want to say, if we go by the last six months, it was not as if the government of India has been caught napping because of all the steps that have been taken.
53:23Yes, a lot more work needs to be done on some of the budget announcements, but I would end by saying, Rajdeep, it is time that the states also step up.
53:32If a West Bengal says that, no, this GST cut will be revenue negative, then that is not part of a national strategy.
53:39This is the stage where everyone cutting across party lines and state and center have to come together.
53:45One final minute that you have, Yashwan Deshmukhsin, this is your poll.
53:48Overall, at the end of this first round of the mood of the nation, can we say the Narendra Modi-led BJP NDA remains politically dominant, electorally dominant,
53:58but the economic clouds looming make this wake-up call, complacency, particularly ahead of our next mood of the nation, is no longer an answer.
54:10Now, you're going to need solutions. Time is running out.
54:12I think complacency is no way. In any case, it can be a solution. I mean, you know, it's not like that.
54:19Because I'm winning elections, I feel I'm complacent. I'll get away by winning an election.
54:24And I also kind of feel for something different, like my home state is UP. We have Bihar on the board.
54:32And for long, in the North Belt, as the Cow Belt, as we call it, we asked this question, by the way, in two rounds earlier, people still prefer the Sarkari Naukri.
54:42You know, there is lack of sense of entrepreneurship in the entire Northern Belt.
54:47Naukri hai nahi, kahan se haii? You know, there are no jobs.
54:51Job is a serious concern for 70%. As you said, people are saying it is a concern.
54:55So, I think the government will have to some way unleash this, you know, economic reforms or whatever, in order to promote the sense of entrepreneurship, not in the Western India, not in the South India, but in the North and the East of India.
55:11Without that, it is not going on.
55:13Unfortunately, if I may, you know, America…
55:16Do you want to confess that you went for the Havan of Donald Trump?
55:18No, I want to tell you, I want to tell you that the moment India stands up, you will see America start backing down.
55:25You will see that, whether you see that immediately or in after some time, because America also wants a good relations with India.
55:31It's in their national interest. Ultimately, they too want to take on China.
55:34So, you know, Trump may be penny wise, at least hopefully he won't be pound foolish.
55:39Okay, let's leave it there.
55:40We've had a very, very interesting mood of the nation.
55:42And the good news is, whichever way you look at it, we've got another mood of the nation coming up tomorrow, where we look at other hot button issues, handling of operation, sindoor vote, the allegations of vote-chory, democratic reforms and so much more.
55:58I want to thank all my guests for joining us and for you, the viewers, do, of course, look at the latest India Today magazine, where you'll get a more detailed look at the mood of the nation.
56:07Thanks for watching. Stay well, stay safe. Namaskar.
56:10Stay home.
56:11Stay home.
56:11Stay home.
Comments