- 5 weeks ago
A cautious session kept Indian equities flat, with investors eyeing the US Fed’s decision. Experts, however, expect GST 2.0 reforms to drive domestic consumption and benefit core sectors such as FMCG and banking.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Good afternoon and welcome to Market Closing on our brand new collab show between Business
00:11Today and India Today Television. It's 3 p.m. and we are here to get you all the market
00:15closing action. First, let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and financial
00:20space. Markets trade flat in a lackluster session ahead of the U.S. federal meeting. We are
00:30also given to understand that the Nifty is currently holding across 25,100-odd mark. Sensex
00:35hovers around 81,900 while the Nifty Bank has crossed 55,000 mark for the first time since
00:41August 25. Railway stocks including the PSU names have rallied in trade today including
00:51Railtel, RVNL, IRFC and Aircon International gaining up to 8% in trade following increased
00:57auto inflows in the sector. A big move could be on the cards. For the insurance sector,
01:06finance minister Nirmala Seetaraman has said she hopes the insurance amendment bill will
01:12be introduced in the upcoming winter session of the parliament. The bill proposes 100% FDI
01:18in the sector.
01:23Wholesale inflation rises to 0.5% in August, ending two-month negative streak. Food, manufacturing
01:28and non-food articles drive the surge after July's two-year low of minus 0.58%.
01:34Today is the last day to file your income tax returns for assessment year 2025-2026. So
01:44far, the income tax department has received over 6.69 crore returns with over 1 crore more
01:51expected today as taxpayers rush to avoid penalties. Let's take a look at how the markets are trading
02:03in the last half an hour of trade. Remember viewers, after eight consecutive sessions of
02:08moves on the positive side and what we've also seen for the markets is that we've logged in two
02:12consecutive weeks of gains as well. In fact, the markets did shut shop with a two-month high
02:17on Friday evening. But we've started off on a volatile note this fresh and new week. You can
02:23actually see the nifty hovering around the flat line in trade, 25,074. So we've slipped below the
02:2925,100 mark now. 0.1% of a loss is what you see at this point in time. What's creating some
02:35pressure on the market? It's the IT stocks, the heavyweight sector that had been giving the market
02:40some support over the last couple of weeks. We're also looking at pharma space that's also dragging
02:44in trade. Autos, consumer durables have also slipped in trade. Remember, the auto stocks are also in focus
02:50as the sales for the auto companies have come in lower vis-a-vis the last month as well and have
02:57been on a dragging trend right ahead of the GST rollout is concerned. Now, what you're also given
03:02to understand is it's the real estate sector that's outperforming in the trade today. Look at the top
03:08gainers on your screens. Geofinance, Bajaj Finance, Zomato, that's eternal now. Those are the top stocks
03:13that are actually doing very well. Coupled with it, you know, Ultratex Cement, Reliance Industries,
03:18even names within the Adani group like Adani Ports that's also doing well at this point in time.
03:24On the other hand, you see M&M, Sippla, Asian Paints as dragging one and a half odd percent in trade.
03:29You're also looking at Sriram Finance, Dr. Reddy's and Aisha Motors continuously dragging IT names like
03:34Infosys. Remember, last week, this was the key trigger for the IT stocks to move up higher in
03:40trade has dropped by about one percent. Let's actually welcome our guest on board now. Mr. Pankaj Fande,
03:45the head of research at ICICI Direct, is now joining in to share with us his views on the markets.
03:51Pankaj, welcome. Good afternoon to you. Good to have you with us. Well, I want to first understand
03:54from you, how are you assessing the mood in the markets right now? We've already had two weeks
03:59of consecutive moves on the positive side, of course, led by a lot of positive news flow that's
04:04actually emerging from the domestic markets. But will it sustain till the time actually we see
04:10the GST rollout on September 22nd? That will be the Monday of next week.
04:15Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for having me. I think what we have seen in the last one or two
04:20weeks is, again, U.S. opening its stand on tariff has sort of lifted the sentiment. And I think our
04:28sense is that with the larger possibility of Fed cutting the rates, it is very much possible that we
04:35might see a bit of a trend reversal in the FI or FPI outflows, which again could be a big boost for a
04:43big sector like, say, banking and IT. Now, for IT, again, the challenge would remain that the near term
04:50demand or whatever guidance you look at is still sort of muted. But banking overall is in definitely
04:56good shape and has seen a decent amount of selling in the recent past. And it's a heavyweight sector.
05:01So our sense is that this sentiment is going to probably lift the market further to 25,800 kind
05:09of levels. And again, it will be sort of probably banking is going to do the heavy lifting. Otherwise,
05:16our sense is that for the domestic oriented sectors, while September quarter numbers may not make much
05:22of a sense, given the fact that you see demand postponement because of lower GST rates, but Q3 onwards
05:29is where we would expect earnings to sort of pick up. Q1, we had earning growth of about six,
05:34six and a half percent. And for full year, we are still keeping at about eight odd percent. Our sense
05:39is that this number can get incrementally revised upwards. But yes, the drag which financials and IT
05:48were creating, I think is possibly coming to an end and which is why we are sort of constructive on the
05:53market. And BFSI again, like I said, could do the heavy lifting.
05:58Sure, BFSI to do the heavy lifting. Now, Vangash, help us understand when it comes to the changes in the
06:03portfolio after the GST rationalization and the next generation reforms have been announced. Have you
06:08made changes to the clients' portfolios as well?
06:12So I think from a consumption perspective, while yes, overall sense is that the consumption is expected
06:18to get a boost. But we are only looking at the premium and leg of the market. And that is where
06:24you'll have selective players. So for example, in auto, auto is a good player on the discretionary
06:30segment. I think the sector has already done well, up about 13 odd percent. But we still like this
06:36entire pack, given the fact that you'll have further benefits in terms of HPA commission kicking in from
06:42next year. While volume growth can lift up to say six to eight odd percent, probably 10 percent from
06:49mid single digit. But price-led growth can still be there because of the premiumization. In addition
06:56to that, segments like hotels look very attractive to us. I think demand growth is still at 9 percent.
07:03And then you have selective consumption categories like even hospitals or even alcohol or liquor categories
07:10which are expected to sort of do well. So consumption, we are selectively positive. I think
07:15CAPEX is, as a theme, looks a lot more attractive from a 5 to 7 year perspective.
07:20Okay, got that. So when we talk about autos, let me dig a little deeper there. It has clearly shown
07:26the maximum amount of enthusiasm when it comes to the GST rationalization news flow is concerned.
07:30The stocks are up anywhere between 6 to 17 odd percent from 15th August, the time when Prime Minister
07:35Modi announced that, you know, big GST reforms are going to be coming in. I want to understand,
07:41do you know, your top preferred list of stocks that you are looking at at this point in time?
07:45Spread it across four-wheelers, two-wheelers, three-wheelers at large, maybe even the tractor makers as
07:50well. I'll also just give this highlight to all our viewers. Remember, car sales have fallen for the
07:55fourth consecutive month in August with 3,21,840 vehicles dispatched. That's down by 8.8 percent from last year
08:01as manufacturers are now adjusting their shipments ahead of the revised GST rates. So three-wheelers
08:07and two-wheelers have still risen marginally, but we've seen that when it comes to the passenger
08:11vehicles, they have seen a slip, you know, from the last time around as well. How are you looking
08:16at the top choices? So I think in the auto, our sense is that on the passenger vehicle side,
08:23when you look at the used car market, that is nearly 1.3 times bigger than the new car market.
08:29And that is where the price differential will sort of come down. And which is why we are positive
08:35in the entire PV as a space. So we like coming like Maruti with a target price of $17,160. M&M again,
08:41is a play on both SUVs plus a tractor. So that looks attractive to us with a target price of 4,180.
08:49We even like the CD players, where we expect that demand to sort of get revived with a,
08:54something like a chocolate and then with 155. Besides that, Bajajota and Aishar Motors also look
09:00attractive to us. Even on the auto-incellary side, we like, companies like say, Sonsera Engineering,
09:07Lomax Auto, steel-stipped wheels. So, so these are some of the names. So besides that, I think Apollo
09:13tires and excited, excited investors are the other two companies which we prefer in the auto space.
09:19Fantastic. So hold that thought there, Pankaj. I'll be coming back to you with some of the other
09:23sectoral trends and some of the other stock choices across the markets that you're looking at
09:28positively at this point in time. But remember viewers, it's also a time to really look at
09:32today marks the final day to file your income tax returns for assessment year 2025 to 2026. Now,
09:38so far, we've given to understand that 6.69 crore returns have already been filed and the number
09:44is expected to swell by about one more crore filings on the last year loan. Filing numbers have already
09:49seen a steady growth path. Last year, we had seen about a 7.5% surge with total filings crossing 6.7
09:56crore. And this year, the figure could potentially touch 7.8 crore returns as well. The rush today
10:02highlights how taxpayers are racing to meet the deadline and to avoid the penalties and on refund
10:08delays as well. Let's actually welcome our other guest to join in on the panel. We have Gauri
10:13Chadha, tax expert now joining in to share with us what should investors be keeping in mind,
10:17taxpayers be keeping in mind in case they still haven't filed their returns in today's trading
10:22session as well. So, Gauri, welcome. Good to have you with us. Last day to file the ITRs,
10:27tell us a lot of people would still be remaining like we have given to understand. One more crore
10:31people are expected. So, what should those taxpayers do if they have still not filed their returns?
10:36Thank you, Sakshi, for having me on the show. So, it's a very challenging day for the taxpayers and
10:43as well as the professionals because the site is not working properly and people are unable to
10:48download the AIS. So, last minute if you are filing your return because still once your returns are
10:55pending, I think you need to be sure that you review your AIS and 26AS before filing your return
11:03because there are challenges while downloading the AIS and 26AS. You may end up filing it without
11:10reviewing that and trust me when you will see your AIS, you will see a lot of income and you know
11:17TDS which has been reported under your ban which you are not aware of or maybe you won't remember
11:23anymore. So, don't do this mistake of filing the return without reviewing your AIS and 26AS.
11:30That's a very important point. A lot of taxpayers would not have even thought of that but thanks a
11:35lot for bringing that out, Gauri. There are a lot of other FAQs that a lot of people would want to
11:40know so I'm going to be asking you a few scenarios that you could help us with. There may be a lot
11:45of people out there who may be thinking that if their income is below the taxable limit, remember February
11:49onwards we actually have heard the finance minister increase the tax base to 12.75 lakhs where people do not
11:57need to file their taxes but when it comes to returns, do they still need to file their return
12:03if their income is below the taxable limit? That's the key question. So, Sakshi this is a confusion which
12:09everybody has that the basic exemption limit has been increased to 12.75 which is not true because if
12:16your income is 12 lakhs or 12.75 lakhs you still have your income above the basic exemption limit but
12:23below that you are getting rebate in the tax pay. So, you have to file your return. If your income is below
12:30the basic exemption limit which is 3, 4, 5 lakhs, in that case you may not file your return but if you
12:36are falling under any of the categories like if you have spent more than 2 lakhs in foreign travel or if
12:44you have paid your electricity bill of rupees 1 lakh or more or if you have deposited cash in the bank
12:51account 1 CR for current bank account and 50 lakhs in savings bank account or if you have any foreign
12:58assets or foreign income you have to file your return even if your income is below the basic
13:04exemption limit and in case the income is below exemption limit but your TDS has been deducted then of
13:10course you have to file otherwise you won't get your refund back. Okay, so those are very important
13:15clarifications. I hope all of you are noting all of that down that Gauri is really telling you some
13:19very important tips and you know things that you must keep in mind in case you still haven't filed your
13:24ITR. A lot of people would still want to know what happens if they actually miss out on filing the
13:30return today. See if you miss out on the return filing today and there is no extension and today is
13:38the last day to file the return then you can still file the return till 31st December and but you have
13:45to pay penalty of rupees 5000 if your income is above 5 lakhs or if it is below 5 lakhs you will have to pay a
13:52penalty of rupees 1000. This can be increased with interest because if there is any tax payable then
14:02there is interest also which will be charged under three different sections and accordingly you have
14:08to pay that amount as well so that interest would depend on the amount of tax payable but this penalty
14:14will remain same for everybody. Okay, help us understand you know two more things a lot of people would want
14:21to know that okay just to file the return so that it does not come into the penalty category if
14:26somebody files but there are a lot of mistakes can one still go ahead and revise those returns going
14:31forward from here. Two, there is also an essential fact that everybody needs to e-verify their tax returns
14:37now because if they do not complete this step it is considered that your returns are incomplete. So how do you
14:43go about it if you have forgotten to e-verify by today? So two questions. So yeah so first of all
14:50if you want to revise your return if you later on realize that you have missed out on something or you
14:56have incorrectly mentioned any details then you can revise your return again by 31st December but you
15:03have to keep in mind uh that if you are revising the return uh and you are uh you know increasing your
15:10income or increasing the refund and low uh decreasing the income in that case you might uh end up having
15:18more chances of uh getting a notice although i'm not saying that if you are going to revise your return
15:23you will get a notice but be sure that if you are revising you are doing everything correctly and then
15:30you can easily revise there is no limit on the number of times you can revise you can revise any
15:35number of times whereas e-verification is concerned uh you have a lot of uh options to e-verify the
15:42return and of course that digital way of sending the physical copy to cpc is still there uh you have
15:4830 days to e-verify the return or verify the return and only after that the return would be processed yeah
15:55okay lastly gauri help us understand if somebody is facing like you also pointed out the site is
16:01not working income taxed or gov is not really working properly and if there is a too much of a
16:06rush if the site crashes by midnight what is the hope uh can the deadline be extended and two what help
16:12can one look for so uh of course actually we are hoping for an extension but till now since there is no
16:18news uh we may not get any extension the site is definitely not working properly there are
16:24uh issues in downloading eis and 26 as uh the third party softwares have been kind of blocked
16:31and uh the challenge are also not uh fetching so uh basically if you are facing such issues the
16:37department has tweeted also they have their email id they have their chat box they have their uh you
16:44know uh online grievance uh portal right so you can go there tweet or chat with them uh although i'm not
16:52very sure about how many solutions will be uh given but these are the alternatives yeah well the
16:57hopes are that the site works properly thanks a lot gauri for giving us all those insights and i'm
17:02sure all these tips will really help all the taxpayers out there who've still not filed your ideas right
17:07now but it's time for some breaking news viewers uh export boost for india is being seen as fresh market
17:13for india seafood exports could be opening up as well karish masudani is joining in to share with us
17:19more on these details but remember it's the 13th round of india you eu negotiations that have got
17:26completed remember eu has listed 102 fishery units for imports from india as well and new markets for
17:32india's shrimp squid and fish is being talked about now remember european union markets are crucial
17:38to beat the u.s tariff barriers for india at this point in time this is the 13th round of india
17:45european union negotiations that now stand completed india and u.s trade deal may be inked by the end of
17:53this year is also something that we are given to understand at this point in time but seems like
17:58there is some light at the end of the tunnel uh cushion that could be given by way of the india eu
18:05export boost that we could be looking forward to as well that's something that we are clearly looking
18:11at as well of course this is uh crucial at this point in time when india has been imposed by a 50
18:18tariff by united states of america especially on the export oriented sectors uh talk about fisheries for
18:26instance uh we have been seeing the likes of avanti feeds apex frozen foods these are the stocks that
18:32have reacted negatively to the 50 percent tariffs that have been imposed on india and the export
18:40oriented sectors now apart from this we are also looking at an impact on textiles for instance as
18:45well but what you are given to understand is that in the latest round of negotiations that have happened
18:51between india and the european union there could be an extended export boost that could cushion
18:57the impact of the 50 percent tariffs on uh these kind of expose all right let's go back to punkage
19:03now punkage um you know bringing you back on this story as well remember uh us tariffs have been of
19:10critical nature and markets have reacted on these uh news tweets everyday statements right from april up
19:18until now help me understand punkage what's your thought process in case the negotiations with eu
19:23um you know sound positive for the export oriented sectors especially for the fisheries is that going
19:29to be a big positive for this sector would you look at it so it's actually probably i may not be able to
19:37comment on fisheries but textile is what we cover so we have a company under coverage called gokuldas
19:43export now overall sense is that uh this company would look to sort of do more of business with lower
19:50tariff destinations like say bangladesh or you have sri lanka or africa and in the interim or for the
19:56next one or two quarters company is taking a hit on the margin so margins could come down from 11 or
20:0212 odd percent to three to four odd percent but all is not lost because with uk fta there is a
20:09expectation that the current one dollar one billion dollar kind of an export can jump to two billion
20:15dollars with eu expectation is that from five billion dollars we can get an incremental export
20:21opportunity of about two billion dollars and i think companies are looking to sort of diversify
20:27from being concentrated in u.s market and which is why there is a hope that uh some of these companies
20:33can deliver double digit kind of a growth in 27 28 and this year extra is expected to be a challenging year
20:40but all is not lost and i think in case if you are able to do the tariff uh deal with us even with
20:48a 20 25 percent kind of a tariff i think our sense is that probably a risk reward is turning attractive
20:53for a lot of these stocks okay fair point apart from uh the sectors that you talked about especially
21:00the textiles what are the other sectors that you're looking at when we talk about the export oriented
21:05sectors we also usually talk about the it and the pharma sectors at large now we do know that at this
21:11point in time there is no direct impact of any tariffs on it because it's the service oriented
21:16sector and on pharma where we are given to understand that some form of separate uh tariffs may be
21:21announced later and that we will have to tackle on a later front as well but what is your approach
21:26on the it sector and on the pharma sector large part of their revenues come from abroad from countries
21:32like us and europe so i think on the iit sector our view is still sort of constrained by the fact that
21:41we still don't know how the tariff situation will pan pan out and the consequent impact it will have
21:47in the u.s in terms of inflation and also the kind of deterioration we will see in the overall economy
21:53so that's a sort of a big question mark while the events have been good but conversion of those
21:57deal wins into uh revenues is still sort of not happening and we are not too sure that we'll get
22:02clarity even next quarter as well so it again uh while yes uh stocks have corrected but we are still
22:09not chasing uh some of these names pharma again i think overall the threat still sort of lingers on
22:17whether 100 200 percent tariff so so that is also sort of a question mark so i think at this point time
22:23it is better to look at some of the sectors which are uh domestic oriented nature so for example in
22:29in the overall pharma and healthcare i think hospital is one space it looks relatively a lot
22:34more attractive i think this is one of the few segments which can keep on growing admit to hiking
22:40kind of a growth rate with pretty good uh margin so there we have uh or be like companies like apollo
22:46hospitals or hcg uh so i think one needs to be very selective in the export oriented
22:52sectors not everything can be chased at current levels okay so domestic oriented sectors including
22:59hospitals that are least impacted or not at all impacted with all of these external shocks
23:05that we are seeing and uncertainties at large is something that pankaj is clearly positive on at this
23:10point in time as well uh let me also ask you uh when pankaj when we look at the domestic oriented
23:17sectors how are you looking at something uh like an fmcg a hardcore domestic oriented sector uh this
23:24has been a clear laggard for a fairly long bit of time uh plus we are hoping that you know the gst
23:30rationalization may be able to give some Philip to the volumes growth that have been absent from a long
23:37time from many quarters for most of these uh fmcg giants how are you looking at the fmcg space still uh would
23:43you stay away from this one so i think on the fmcg uh there's no doubt uh there could be some bit of
23:51a volume growth which can pick up even the margin profile can improve in the second half given that
23:55some of the robots will have east but i think from a consumption basket perspective i think discretionary
24:01like is something where we are more positive on i spoke about auto in addition to that i think one can
24:06be selectively positive in segments like say for example uh uh tata kagimor or marico where the food
24:14segment of food uh overall contribution is higher and that is where they can tap the unorganized
24:21segment in a far more bigger way and besides that i think you could have players on the uh hotel side
24:27through the likes of itc hotel elementary or uh uh i uh or itc hotel in addition to that i think we like
24:34tms players also these are good proxy uh consumption players like dixon sir my number so i think so
24:41our sense is that in some of these categories you have both volume plus value play sort of coming
24:47in and not necessarily that you will have a higher income you're going to spend more on fmcg i think
24:52you're going to spend more on discussion besides okay how are you looking at the psu space at large
24:58pankaj at this point in time do you see um you know some sense of a return to the erstwhile
25:04favorite psu basket on friday we had seen the defense stocks on fire today we've been seeing
25:09the railway stocks back in momentum of course largely both of these spaces are working with
25:14the new order inflows that have increased and most of the stocks are reacting to that
25:19but do you see some sense of psus as a theme coming back into action
25:26i think within psus one needs to be selective so for example on the banking side government is talking
25:31off second round of consolidation our sense is that last time we had seen a sharper rally
25:36but this time around it does not look like we are going to see a sharper rally because uh both uh
25:42i mean all the banks are on a pretty uh relatively good asset quality position and valuation gains are
25:48expected to be limited but uh i think when i look at the defense side i think things are a lot more
25:54interesting and uh yes you've got a good tailwind for growth so there will be like companies like
26:00hl bharat electronics and in case if we start i'll have to just uh uh you know stop you right there
26:06because we have a breaking news that's coming in the chief negotiator of the us is going to be coming
26:11to india tonight based on which the further course of action will be decided remember this is big news
26:16viewers as far as the tariff announcements are concerned and the negotiation that will happen from here
26:23after remember there are some issues that are not directly related to trade that will also be taken
26:28up at the diplomatic level is what we are given to understand of course it's not a round of
26:33negotiations but a discussion on trade talks will take place remember this visit is for just one day
26:39and they will be here for the whole day and they will also be deciding on the future course of action
26:46remember we've also seen before this uh the top level uh ministers of from both the countries we've
26:54seen uh the president of united states donald trump uh come out on uh social media platforms saying that
27:01he is still hopeful that both the countries will be able to arrive at a negotiation that is a win-win
27:07both both the countries we've also seen prime minister narendra modi reciprocate the same
27:12and say that yes he still values us as a relationship that we share with the country and of course he's
27:18also hopeful that things will be coming back on track when it comes to negotiations and we'll just
27:25come back to punkage on the front punkage i think this is big news that's coming in yet again some more
27:31hopes of a re-negotiation or a re-discussion on that 50 tariff that seems impossible for our export
27:41oriented sectors to really deal with at this point in time could take place how are you looking at this
27:46fresh round of talks that could happen tonight and tomorrow i think if yes is warming back to your
27:53india again on the tariff front i think this has been the biggest roadblock for markets to sort of
28:00sustain the momentum and i think if we get enough clarity here our senses that uh we are headed
28:07towards uh far more better higher levels probably new high especially on the nfc towards so by diwali
28:13because i think most of the domestic oriented sectors have got a good amount of boost from the gst rate
28:18card i think it is mostly export like and also because of fact that if we have been selling in uh heavy
28:25sectors like uh say for example bfsi and technology so that uh there we might get some respite so a
28:33combination of these two again is a pretty good news for markets to sort of head higher and possibly
28:38towards new high okay got that uh well uh pankaj help me understand if the talks um you know are
28:46constructive what do you see as an impact to the overall market sentiment as well you know so far we've
28:52been dwelling on the hopes that the domestic news flow is somehow trying to cushion the impact from
28:57the external shocks but if we are given to understand that yes the talks are progressing towards a
29:02positive side that there could be a rethought as far as the 50 percent tariff is concerned if the talks
29:09progress upon a positive side what do you expect on the markets as a reaction to be we are already at
29:1425 100 where do you see the markets headed so i think uh uh three to four percent or three to five
29:21percent kind of a move over the next one month if the trade talks uh happen on expected lines uh pan out
29:27i think is very much uh possible so which again means that we are uh which we could be sort of heading
29:32past the previous high levels all right pankaj thanks a lot for sharing all that update viewers we are
29:40now just going to be wrapping up the market for you 25 069 44 points lower in trade so we have
29:45snapped the eight days of a winning streak but let's see and hope that tonight when the us officials are
29:51in talks with the indian officials on tariffs there is something positive that the markets can look
29:56forward to as well that's a wrap on business today's show all your queries on mutual funds markets and your
30:01portfolio is something that you can send on on the number that's flashing on your screens and also on our
30:06social media handles also don't miss the market opening show tomorrow morning at 9 a.m with haba
30:11bhagaya giving you the first word on everything that will move the markets thanks a lot for tuning in
Recommended
22:02
|
Up next
30:32
1:21
21:16
0:45
0:40
Be the first to comment