00:00Tonight we'll be taking a deeper look at what's taken place in Poland today as multiple Russian drones were shot down over Polish airspace.
00:11It was the first time one NATO country has called on another to assist in airspace engagement as the Netherlands sent assistance to the Polish in the form of several fighter jets helping to intercept those drones.
00:22That prompted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to trigger Article 4 of NATO's treaty, one which enables members to demand consultations with their allies.
00:34The material damage after some 19 drones entered Polish airspace is minimal.
00:41Some debris left by the downed UAVs and a damaged rooftop.
00:45But the apparent Russian incursion has left a deeper mark on people's minds.
00:52Terrified. Terrified. Like most citizens in Poland.
00:56Because we're so close. And Putin is unpredictable. You never know what might happen.
01:03It's a fear that paralyzes me and makes me want to cut myself off from it.
01:07But when I get up in the morning and read an alert like this, I imagine that everything is okay right now, but tomorrow it might not be.
01:14NATO met to discuss the incident, which came three days after Russia's largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the war began.
01:22For Prime Minister Donald Tusk, this is the closest Poland has been to an open conflict since the Second World War.
01:29This is the first time that Russian drones have been shot down over the territory of a NATO member country, which is why all our allies are taking the situation very seriously.
01:38Several European leaders said they believe that the incursion amounted to an intentional escalation by Russia.
01:47EU chief Ursula von der Leyen pledged that Europe would defend every inch of its territory, as she called for more sanctions on Moscow.
01:54While the British defense minister said Russia's aggression strengthened European unity with Ukraine,
01:59after a meeting with representatives from France, Italy, Germany and Poland.
02:04Russia's actions are reckless, they're dangerous, they're unprecedented.
02:11We see what Putin is doing. Yet again, he is testing us. Yet again, we will stand firm.
02:19For its part, the Russian defense ministry said it did not target Poland and accused Warsaw of spreading myths.
02:28Faced with a dangerous precedent for Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged a common air defense system with Kiev's European allies.
02:37Russian missiles have previously entered the airspace of countries bordering Ukraine,
02:41but this is the first time they've been shot down.
02:43And the first known instance of a NATO country firing during the war.
02:49To unpack the latest developments, let's get the expertise of David Fataunli,
02:53teaching fellow in U.S. politics and international security at the University of Portsmouth.
02:58Thank you so much for joining us, David.
02:59So we know that Article 4 of NATO has been invoked by Poland,
03:03but what exactly does this mean for alliance members?
03:05And how far could consultations, if what I understand to be correct, of Article 4,
03:11how far could they realistically go in preventing any kind of escalation in the future?
03:18Well, this is obviously a significant turning point in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
03:24Certainly, this is only the seventh time in NATO's history that Article 4 has been invoked.
03:30So it's a major point in terms of how NATO deals with the conflict.
03:40Whether this leads to any sort of future escalation in relationship between NATO and Russia is unclear,
03:50but it's likely to be how does NATO build up resilience
03:54and ensure the territorial integrity of its member states is protected by adequate air defences.
04:03And I think that's one of the things that's quite evident today is that,
04:07you know, although fortunately nobody was injured during this incursion into Polish airspace,
04:16the success rate of the air defences in dealing with the Russian drones is probably not as good as NATO would want.
04:31So there'll be a lot of discussions here about how to improve the success rate in dealing with these drones,
04:39but also what paths the organisation will take next.
04:46Well, it's one thing to actually deal with it in real time,
04:48but it's another thing to talk about Europe's capacity to deal with it and NATO in general.
04:54Where do you put it?
04:55How capable is NATO at this point?
04:58Well, I think NATO at the moment is unsure of its, certainly it's unsure of its position in terms of its unity.
05:15I think the European members are entirely behind each other.
05:19We've certainly seen, we've seen E5 member states, as you, as the video showed, discuss, you know, what they think of the situation.
05:30The United States has been very quiet and any action that comes as a result of this will be reliant on the US's support.
05:37So if the US decides that it doesn't want to get involved in this, then Europe is going to, first of all,
05:44going to have to certainly significantly increase its capabilities in terms of its manufacturing and defence production,
05:54and also potentially put more assets around the borders that it shares now with Russia.
06:01Of course, with the admittance of Finland to NATO, the direct border that NATO shares with Russia now has increased significantly compared to what it was just two years ago.
06:15You've mentioned the United States being quiet.
06:18Donald Trump still called it a violation of Poland's airspace on social media.
06:22Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the situation is inching towards open conflict.
06:27And I think it's a question a lot of people will be asking themselves is, after this, how close are we going from Article 4 to Article 5?
06:37Well, Article 5, of course, has only been invoked once.
06:40I think there's a major step between Article 4 and Article 5.
06:45I think that Article 5, of course, doesn't mean that every member state has to provide military support,
06:52but certainly support to a member state that has been attacked in that way.
06:57This is, of course, not the first time that Poland's airspace or NATO's airspace has been invaded by Russian assets over the last,
07:06what's it, three years now, three and a half years since the conflict has begun.
07:09But this is the first time that NATO members have fired shots in anger.
07:15And so whether we see the next step is NATO get involved in a conflict beyond its borders,
07:23of course, that is something that will be discussed at length by its members over the next weeks, one would suggest.
07:34I know that Trump is certainly going to be talking with Tusk over the next, I think, 24 hours about what sort of actions he's going to recommend.
07:45So it would be interesting to see where the organisation moves from there.
07:51It's very much reliant on American support at the moment.
07:54I think NATO ideally would like there to be a diplomatic solution to this.
08:00As we've seen in the clip, Ursula von der Leyen, a call for increased sanctions,
08:05but sanctions only have a limited impact on Russia.
08:09And it's something that is quite clear that Russia is not seeking peace at this moment.
08:17It doesn't appear to have any intention.
08:19Sorry, David, that brings me to my next question.
08:22Because Russia has, as you say, violated that airspace on several occasions over the past three years,
08:27is this being done deliberately?
08:30I know it's quite difficult to go into the mind of the Kremlin as things stand,
08:33but was this a deliberate act?
08:38Well, I think so.
08:39I mean, Russia has obviously claimed it wasn't, or certainly it claimed it wasn't targeting Poland.
08:44And certainly some of the Russian-produced drones that have been shot down or ended up in Poland
08:55are usually used in a swarm.
08:57They don't tend to contain explosives.
09:00It's usually the Iranian-produced Shahid drones that do that.
09:04But certainly I think that this is Russia, or Putin at least, pushing his, you know,
09:10testing his boundaries, as it is, as it were.
09:13He's certainly testing to resolve NATO.
09:18And I think he's certainly indicating to NATO member states and to the United States
09:24that essentially he has no intention of sitting down with Zelensky and Ukraine at the moment.
09:31He's quite happy to see out the conflict over the winter and into the next year.
09:36He's certainly in a better position, I think, than Ukraine to deal with a long, extended conflict.
09:43And that's something I think that has to be taken into consideration
09:46should any diplomatic solution be sought.
09:50And I guess that's exactly why it has elicited such a stern response from Vladimir Zelensky.
09:54It was to be expected, but he's called on Western allies to do more.
09:57And he's also called for a joint European defence shield.
10:01How feasible is an idea like that, especially at this juncture?
10:06Well, of course, the idea is praiseworthy.
10:13But at the same time, it comes with a lot of complications in terms of who would lead it.
10:19It would also inevitably be nations committing troops or assets to some sort of conflict,
10:27if Ukraine is part of that coalition, if you want to call it that.
10:33I think that there is room for a European military coalition as well as NATO.
10:40And I think that to a certain extent offers European states greater assurance of the reliability of their partners.
10:50I think that if nations are willing to put those assets on the front line,
10:58then we might well see a change in attitudes within NATO itself.
11:03Of course, the admittance of Ukraine into NATO is exactly what Zelensky wants, what Putin doesn't want.
11:11But that's unlikely to be at any point at any sort of discussion amongst NATO member states at the moment.
11:19So I think a European coalition of certainly of a protection force of some sort sounds more likely.
11:25But where do they, you know, most nations at the moment are struggling in terms of producing enough armaments,
11:33ordnance, assets, et cetera, for its own needs to replenish the stocks it's already given to Ukraine.
11:41And that is an ongoing issue for the rest of Europe.
11:43The coalition of the willing, though, very much in action, at least in terms of talks,
11:49but not in terms of any kind of physical movement.
11:52Thank you so much, David Townley, joining us there from the University of Portsmouth,
11:57where he is a teaching fellow in politics of the United States and international security.
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