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Transcript
00:00This moment marks the end of the agony of a phantom government.
00:05The president has only one option, call new elections and let the country choose.
00:11And if he decides not to choose a majority, if he gets involved in the campaign,
00:16if he steps out of his role as an arbitrator to become a player,
00:20he accepts in advance the political consequences in the event of his defeat.
00:24And for more, we're joined by France 24 Politics editor Mark Perlman.
00:31You heard Marine Le Pen there saying the president has only one option.
00:34Of course, he doesn't have only one option.
00:37Dissolving parliament is a bit of a nuclear option,
00:43but he can also just name another prime minister or keep the same one.
00:48No, he won't keep the same one.
00:50François Bayrou is gone.
00:52I mean, unless there's a miracle at the National Assembly,
00:54we're already hearing he will hand in his resignation.
00:58Because as Clovis said, that was kind of a farewell speech.
01:00No, there was, yeah.
01:01I mean, he sounded like he already knew he was going to get the guillotine in a few minutes.
01:09So clearly, no, and he will resign.
01:11There's no question about this.
01:14Then what comes next?
01:14Yes, the president gets to the side.
01:17He is probably going to reappoint a new prime minister,
01:22hoping he will fare better.
01:23But the record is not a very good one, to say the least.
01:27François Bayrou, nine months.
01:29Michel Barnier, a few months.
01:31Elizabeth Borne.
01:34And so clearly, there's been a problem since his re-election in 2022.
01:40And he made the problem worse by using this nuclear weapon,
01:44that is, calling for a snap election, surprising everyone last year.
01:50And this made things even worse, because at least before that,
01:53he had a relative majority.
01:55Now he doesn't have a majority.
01:57And that is obvious today.
01:59And the problem is the polls are showing that if there was to be a snap parliamentary election,
02:05his majority, or it wouldn't be a majority at all, it would fare around 15, 1-5%.
02:11So this would be even worse.
02:14And in the worst-case scenario, the national rally could garner a majority.
02:18And so Emmanuel Macron would go down in history as the president,
02:22who handed the reins of power to the national rally,
02:25something he promised he would never do when he faced Marine Le Pen in the presidential election.
02:31So it's very, very difficult to see him calling for an election.
02:35Yes, Marine Le Pen is pushing for this, because she's reading the same polls,
02:39and she's hoping that this will force Emmanuel Macron into a corner.
02:45What she doesn't do, and she is distinguishing herself from the far left,
02:49is calling for him to resign.
02:51Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is not an MP, but who was sitting in the front row in the public today,
02:58wants Emmanuel Macron to leave.
03:01He said he is the source of all our trouble, so let's not talk about a new prime minister.
03:07A snap election is not enough.
03:08The president has to resign.
03:10We need to go for a new presidential election.
03:12Emmanuel Macron has made it clear there's no question for him.
03:17He will not resign before the end of his mandate,
03:20and no other groups, including the national rally, are calling for him to do so.
03:24So, obviously, he will have to react.
03:27We're being told, but we've been told this before,
03:30that Emmanuel Macron will not wait to appoint a new prime minister,
03:34but every time we've been told he will do so quickly,
03:37he took his time, hesitated, appointed one person in the morning
03:41before changing his mind in the evening.
03:44That's the way he functions, but clearly now there's a lot of pressure,
03:47political pressure, European pressure, financial pressure.
03:53Fitch is supposed to render its verdict on the French economy,
03:57and obviously all this unusual instability in French politics
04:01is adding more pressure on the French president
04:04to act quickly and decisively.
04:07The big question is, can he find a magic prime minister,
04:10someone who can survive longer than all the ones he's tried?
04:14Difficult.
04:15All right, and let me ask you, Mark,
04:18because just a postscriptum on François Bayrou,
04:25will he have succeeded, as our guest Renaud Foucard just said,
04:31in at least making it a conversation,
04:34how to reach a compromise on a budget?
04:36No, because he couldn't.
04:37I mean, you know, the socialists accused him today of, you know,
04:42of not sacrificing himself by telling the truth about France's woos
04:48and especially the debt that's killing any prospect for now
04:53and the future generation.
04:55The problem is that François Bayrou was supposed to pass a budget,
04:57and essentially when he decided on his own with the agreement of the president
05:04to call for this confidence vote, that is a way of not going to a budget vote
05:10that could have been mortal for him as well.
05:13So, no, there's no way of saying that he was able to build a budget.
05:18The only thing, and that probably he's hoping people will remember,
05:22that he has been talking morning, lunch, evening,
05:27and every time of the day about the debt, the debt, the debt,
05:31and how much of a threat it is.
05:33The problem is that he was not hurt by a lot of people.
05:37Even the French are not giving him credit for this.
05:40He's pulling around 20%,
05:41and this is probably also why he will be ousted.
05:47We saw him speak, not a very, you know, rousing speech,
05:52a lot of doom and gloom, Churchillian speech,
05:55but he's not Winston Churchill, obviously.
05:58He's been jeered all along his speech,
06:00so it's not a very encouraging ending for François Bayrou
06:06and also not a very good omen for his or her successor.
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