China summit a symbol of a world aiming to 'make itself America-proof', expert says

FRANCE 24 English

Speaking with FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney, Robert Manning, Distinguished Fellow at the Strategic Foresight Hub and China Program at the Stimson Centre, says that this year's summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has become symbolic of a world that aims to "make itself America-proof, both in terms of new trade arrangements and new security arrangements".  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

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00:00As apropos, Chinese and Russian presidents have been taking turns swiping at the West

00:07during a gathering of Eurasian leaders at a showpiece summit aimed at putting Beijing

00:12front and center of regional relations. Hosting more than 20 leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation

00:19Organization's annual summit, Xi Jinping hit out at bullying behavior from certain countries,

00:25a veiled reference to the United States, while Vladimir Putin blamed the West for the war in

00:31Ukraine. Kami Knight has more. Holding hands, Russia's Vladimir Putin and India's Narendra Modi

00:38head straight for their host, Chinese President Xi Jinping. They form a huddle with their translators

00:44and exchange a few words, even a few laughs. For Xi, the optics are ideal as he seeks to assert

00:51himself as a world leader they can count on. In his opening speech at the Shanghai Cooperation

00:55Organization Summit, he told members that global governance had reached a new crossroads,

01:00taking not-so-subtle jabs at the United States.

01:04We should uphold fairness and justice. We must promote a correct historical perspective on World

01:10War II and upholds the Cold War mentality. We should block confrontation and bullying practices.

01:17When Donald Trump upended the global trading system, he provided fertile ground for President

01:23Xi to rally partners from around the world. This summit is one example, aiming to strengthen ties

01:29between more than 20 countries from across Asia and the Middle East through cooperation on issues

01:34ranging from AI, infrastructure or the creation of an SCO development bank. Modi would have once been

01:41much more cautious about showing public displays of affection for Putin and Xi as he tried to cultivate

01:46India's relationship with the U.S. But with Delhi currently facing a 50% levy on its exports,

01:52analysts say Modi has been pushed into the arms of his Chinese counterpart,

01:57even despite years of tensions over a border dispute.

02:01The Shanghai Cooperation Organization can become the guiding light for multilateralism

02:07and an inclusive world order.

02:10Meanwhile, Xi is gearing up for his next major event, a military parade in Beijing attended by leaders

02:16Russia, North Korea and Iran to mark 80 years since the end of the Second World War.

02:21For more, let's bring in Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Global Foresight Hub and China

02:30programme at the Stimson Centre. Robert, thanks for being with us on the programme this evening.

02:35Firstly, aside from the speeches, the set pieces, the discussions that will be taking place on the

02:41sidelines, just how much of this summit is aimed at rattling those looking on from Washington and other

02:47Western capitals?

02:50Well, it seems that Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving to Xi Jinping.

02:56And I think what we're seeing, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization really has been mainly a talk shop,

03:03but it's become symbolic of a world that sort of seems to be trying to make itself America-proof,

03:10both in terms of new trade arrangements, new security arrangements.

03:15And it's a wonderful vehicle for Xi to mobilize aggrievement against the United States power.

03:25And this has been very successful for him.

03:29How far it goes, I don't think there's a viable alternative.

03:33I think Donald Trump's vendetta against Modi in India is really shifting the geopolitics in a way

03:43that the US will not benefit from.

03:48And in terms of the two men that we've been talking so much about today, Vladimir Putin,

03:54given the appearance really of being the Chinese president's right-hand man, judging even from the

03:58position that he's standing in, in the photographs.

04:01But what do we actually know about the relationship?

04:06Well, it's a very personal relationship.

04:09And I think that they've met dozens and dozens of times.

04:15China, as you know, has been pretending to be neutral, but has been very important to

04:21support, enable Putin in the Ukraine war.

04:25And I think what brings them together is more opposition to the US-dominated world order than

04:35anything else.

04:37I think that also that, you know, Chinese are not happy with the Ukraine war.

04:45They haven't completely supported Putin.

04:47They never recognized, for example, the annexation of Crimea.

04:51And I don't know if they would accept Putin's goals for the Donbass either, but they have

04:59been very important to his success.

05:01And it's become a symbol of shifting politics and an increasingly multipolar world.

05:09Although it seems to me that it's not very functional.

05:14They don't have all alternative.

05:18And Trump's tariff regime is really testing the idea of how multipolar the world is.

05:27But I think it's an important statement.

05:29You have countries like Turkey, India, and others who are not necessarily big fans of China.

05:37And, of course, China has its own economic coercion.

05:41It's over-manufacturing is causing factories all over Southeast Asia and elsewhere to close.

05:51And they're running a permanent surplus.

05:54And the cost to the rest of Asia is running a permanent deficit.

05:58So I think there's less than meets the eye.

06:01I think if you look at the alternatives that Xi Jinping is talking about, his new global security

06:08initiative, there really is not much there other than let's be nice to each other.

06:14And so I don't know how far this goes in terms of fashioning an alternative.

06:20But I think, as I say, I think it's not just this SCO.

06:25It's much of the world is trying to figure out how to immunize themselves against America.

06:32So it's also then really about sending a message to Washington amid those ongoing trade negotiations

06:38with Beijing as much as anything else, do you think, Robert?

06:43Oh, absolutely.

06:44I think the Trump administration has underestimated China.

06:50The monopoly they have on critical minerals, particularly magnets, gives them escalation

06:56dominance in the trade war.

06:58And I think that's why we have more tariffs on India now than China.

07:03Trump has been very cautious and backed off when the Chinese stopped the flow of critical

07:08minerals.

07:10So I do think Trump wants a deal with China.

07:13I think they will probably meet in the fall and work out some arrangements.

07:20But I think that the whole relationship is filled with deep distrust on both sides.

07:27And there are a lot of vulnerabilities that could lead to conflict.

07:32And looking ahead to the military parade that we're going to see in China on Wednesday, it's

07:36being held to mark 80 years since the end of the Second World War.

07:39What do you think that's going to say?

07:41Or what is China hoping it will say about the current world order and the forces it sees

07:46reshaping it?

07:49Well, they're trying to project Chinese power.

07:52I think it's unfortunate that he's trying to rewrite World War II history and downplay the

08:00U.S. role in victory against fascism.

08:05But I think it's sending a message.

08:10And I note that Prime Minister Modi did not attend the military parade because those Chinese

08:16weapons are being sold to Pakistan, which is attacking India.

08:20So it's a little more complex.

08:23Their interests overlap in terms of their posture on the world order and the inequality of it.

08:31But their national interests are clashing at several different levels, whether it's India

08:37and China and even, to some extent, Russia and China over the long term.

08:43Will China be optimistic?

08:44Do you think that it can smooth over some of those disagreements that it's had with India,

08:49also with Iran?

08:50And how much of a rival really is China when it comes to its interactions with India?

08:59Well, it's an interesting question whether this is a tactical rapprochement or whether it's

09:05a tactical stabilization or really a rapprochement.

09:08There are still many differences, whether it's Tibet, Taiwan, India's economic relationship with China.

09:17There are a lot of issues.

09:19And India, for example, in the BRICS, has really blocked a lot of Chinese moves, India and Brazil both.

09:30And so I think we have to wait and see.

09:33But I think this is a product of India really has no choice for Trump in a matter of weeks

09:40has undone 25 years of American diplomacy to build a relationship with India.

09:46And I think Modi is making his statement about what the consequences of that are.

09:51OK, Robert, we leave it there for now.

09:53Thanks so much for being with us, though, on the program this evening.

09:56That is Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Global Foresight Hub and China program

10:00at the Stimson Center.

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