00:00As apropos, Chinese and Russian presidents have been taking turns swiping at the West
00:07during a gathering of Eurasian leaders at a showpiece summit aimed at putting Beijing
00:12front and center of regional relations. Hosting more than 20 leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation
00:19Organization's annual summit, Xi Jinping hit out at bullying behavior from certain countries,
00:25a veiled reference to the United States, while Vladimir Putin blamed the West for the war in
00:31Ukraine. Kami Knight has more. Holding hands, Russia's Vladimir Putin and India's Narendra Modi
00:38head straight for their host, Chinese President Xi Jinping. They form a huddle with their translators
00:44and exchange a few words, even a few laughs. For Xi, the optics are ideal as he seeks to assert
00:51himself as a world leader they can count on. In his opening speech at the Shanghai Cooperation
00:55Organization Summit, he told members that global governance had reached a new crossroads,
01:00taking not-so-subtle jabs at the United States.
01:04We should uphold fairness and justice. We must promote a correct historical perspective on World
01:10War II and upholds the Cold War mentality. We should block confrontation and bullying practices.
01:17When Donald Trump upended the global trading system, he provided fertile ground for President
01:23Xi to rally partners from around the world. This summit is one example, aiming to strengthen ties
01:29between more than 20 countries from across Asia and the Middle East through cooperation on issues
01:34ranging from AI, infrastructure or the creation of an SCO development bank. Modi would have once been
01:41much more cautious about showing public displays of affection for Putin and Xi as he tried to cultivate
01:46India's relationship with the U.S. But with Delhi currently facing a 50% levy on its exports,
01:52analysts say Modi has been pushed into the arms of his Chinese counterpart,
01:57even despite years of tensions over a border dispute.
02:01The Shanghai Cooperation Organization can become the guiding light for multilateralism
02:07and an inclusive world order.
02:10Meanwhile, Xi is gearing up for his next major event, a military parade in Beijing attended by leaders
02:16Russia, North Korea and Iran to mark 80 years since the end of the Second World War.
02:21For more, let's bring in Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Global Foresight Hub and China
02:30programme at the Stimson Centre. Robert, thanks for being with us on the programme this evening.
02:35Firstly, aside from the speeches, the set pieces, the discussions that will be taking place on the
02:41sidelines, just how much of this summit is aimed at rattling those looking on from Washington and other
02:47Western capitals?
02:50Well, it seems that Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving to Xi Jinping.
02:56And I think what we're seeing, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization really has been mainly a talk shop,
03:03but it's become symbolic of a world that sort of seems to be trying to make itself America-proof,
03:10both in terms of new trade arrangements, new security arrangements.
03:15And it's a wonderful vehicle for Xi to mobilize aggrievement against the United States power.
03:25And this has been very successful for him.
03:29How far it goes, I don't think there's a viable alternative.
03:33I think Donald Trump's vendetta against Modi in India is really shifting the geopolitics in a way
03:43that the US will not benefit from.
03:48And in terms of the two men that we've been talking so much about today, Vladimir Putin,
03:54given the appearance really of being the Chinese president's right-hand man, judging even from the
03:58position that he's standing in, in the photographs.
04:01But what do we actually know about the relationship?
04:06Well, it's a very personal relationship.
04:09And I think that they've met dozens and dozens of times.
04:15China, as you know, has been pretending to be neutral, but has been very important to
04:21support, enable Putin in the Ukraine war.
04:25And I think what brings them together is more opposition to the US-dominated world order than
04:35anything else.
04:37I think that also that, you know, Chinese are not happy with the Ukraine war.
04:45They haven't completely supported Putin.
04:47They never recognized, for example, the annexation of Crimea.
04:51And I don't know if they would accept Putin's goals for the Donbass either, but they have
04:59been very important to his success.
05:01And it's become a symbol of shifting politics and an increasingly multipolar world.
05:09Although it seems to me that it's not very functional.
05:14They don't have all alternative.
05:18And Trump's tariff regime is really testing the idea of how multipolar the world is.
05:27But I think it's an important statement.
05:29You have countries like Turkey, India, and others who are not necessarily big fans of China.
05:37And, of course, China has its own economic coercion.
05:41It's over-manufacturing is causing factories all over Southeast Asia and elsewhere to close.
05:51And they're running a permanent surplus.
05:54And the cost to the rest of Asia is running a permanent deficit.
05:58So I think there's less than meets the eye.
06:01I think if you look at the alternatives that Xi Jinping is talking about, his new global security
06:08initiative, there really is not much there other than let's be nice to each other.
06:14And so I don't know how far this goes in terms of fashioning an alternative.
06:20But I think, as I say, I think it's not just this SCO.
06:25It's much of the world is trying to figure out how to immunize themselves against America.
06:32So it's also then really about sending a message to Washington amid those ongoing trade negotiations
06:38with Beijing as much as anything else, do you think, Robert?
06:43Oh, absolutely.
06:44I think the Trump administration has underestimated China.
06:50The monopoly they have on critical minerals, particularly magnets, gives them escalation
06:56dominance in the trade war.
06:58And I think that's why we have more tariffs on India now than China.
07:03Trump has been very cautious and backed off when the Chinese stopped the flow of critical
07:08minerals.
07:10So I do think Trump wants a deal with China.
07:13I think they will probably meet in the fall and work out some arrangements.
07:20But I think that the whole relationship is filled with deep distrust on both sides.
07:27And there are a lot of vulnerabilities that could lead to conflict.
07:32And looking ahead to the military parade that we're going to see in China on Wednesday, it's
07:36being held to mark 80 years since the end of the Second World War.
07:39What do you think that's going to say?
07:41Or what is China hoping it will say about the current world order and the forces it sees
07:46reshaping it?
07:49Well, they're trying to project Chinese power.
07:52I think it's unfortunate that he's trying to rewrite World War II history and downplay the
08:00U.S. role in victory against fascism.
08:05But I think it's sending a message.
08:10And I note that Prime Minister Modi did not attend the military parade because those Chinese
08:16weapons are being sold to Pakistan, which is attacking India.
08:20So it's a little more complex.
08:23Their interests overlap in terms of their posture on the world order and the inequality of it.
08:31But their national interests are clashing at several different levels, whether it's India
08:37and China and even, to some extent, Russia and China over the long term.
08:43Will China be optimistic?
08:44Do you think that it can smooth over some of those disagreements that it's had with India,
08:49also with Iran?
08:50And how much of a rival really is China when it comes to its interactions with India?
08:59Well, it's an interesting question whether this is a tactical rapprochement or whether it's
09:05a tactical stabilization or really a rapprochement.
09:08There are still many differences, whether it's Tibet, Taiwan, India's economic relationship with China.
09:17There are a lot of issues.
09:19And India, for example, in the BRICS, has really blocked a lot of Chinese moves, India and Brazil both.
09:30And so I think we have to wait and see.
09:33But I think this is a product of India really has no choice for Trump in a matter of weeks
09:40has undone 25 years of American diplomacy to build a relationship with India.
09:46And I think Modi is making his statement about what the consequences of that are.
09:51OK, Robert, we leave it there for now.
09:53Thanks so much for being with us, though, on the program this evening.
09:56That is Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Global Foresight Hub and China program
10:00at the Stimson Center.
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