00:00Here's another interesting game, because I look at that and I say,
00:02why am I just not automatically on an over eight and a half or nine
00:05where I can find it in that Yankees game?
00:07Because I do think they hit.
00:08Boyd versus Gordon.
00:10Cubs versus Rockies.
00:11That's an 11 total and a monster favorite for Chicago.
00:14We get it.
00:15Chicago's a better team.
00:16It's still a high price to pay in that type of an environment.
00:18But when I look and say to myself, Tanner Gordon is a bad pitcher.
00:21But his numbers, like August 10th start, four and two-thirds innings pitch,
00:2510 earned runs.
00:25Like, please get this guy every single time we need him.
00:28We're going to crush him.
00:28His last three starts, though, Tom, at Colorado, five innings pitch,
00:32three earned runs.
00:32At Colorado against the Dodgers, six innings pitch, one earned run.
00:36Then he goes down to Houston, which Houston doesn't hit anybody,
00:38but still six innings pitched, one earned run.
00:41He's been fantastic.
00:43But something has to give to that.
00:44I do think Chicago should be able to touch.
00:47It's six and a half as their team total.
00:48I'm not saying we automatically get seven, but he's not this good, Tanner Gordon.
00:52Come on.
00:53No, he's not.
00:54And still, outside of those few starts, last 45 days, it's still a 756 ERA and a 509 XFIP.
01:02So, yeah, like some of this we have to take into account.
01:04He is a pitcher at Coors Field.
01:06But still, I should say he's underperforming by two runs, I guess, when it comes to his XFIP versus his ERA.
01:12But still, a 509 XFIP isn't good when it's all said and done.
01:15So, I would be looking time and time again, even if he's okay and only gives up, let's say, those three earned runs over five or six innings, whatever it is,
01:23we're still getting the Cubs' bats against the Rockies' bullpen to get some runs across the board.
01:28And all it takes is one crooked number in an inning to give us five earned runs after they already have two on the board, three on the board, and all of a sudden we're at eight.
01:36Not bad temps either today, Tom.
01:383-10 start, East Coast time.
01:39It's 76 degrees with a light wind blowing in, so we should be good there.
01:42Also, answer me this, because Colorado also is sneaky.
01:45I can't say it enough.
01:46Like, bad baseball teams can still make you money in certain instances.
01:49Maybe not by winning games, but RBI props, hitters props.
01:51You get the point.
01:53Boyd has been so good this season.
01:54But last two starts, Tom, 90 innings pitched, five and a third, four earned runs.
01:5892 innings pitched, or 92 pitches, five and a third innings, five earned runs.
02:02It's one of those scenarios where this guy has really good numbers on the season, but is he starting to leak oil now?
02:08He is.
02:09And Boyd has put together a really, really strong season, kind of one of these veteran pitchers who's a reclamation project.
02:15But 153 innings this year, is that what he has?
02:19Last year, 39 innings.
02:21In 2023, he had 71 innings, and in 2022, he had 13 innings.
02:25He has pitched 110 more innings this year.
02:28The last time he pitched over 100 innings was 2019.
02:32So maybe the attrition of the season is truly getting to him.
02:35And he was great for a while, and if you're on his props then, awesome.
02:38But this actually is the turning point of him, where he actually may be struggling just due to arm fatigue.
02:43153 innings, more than he's pitched in the last two seasons combined.
02:47Yeah.
02:47I look at, I like, because again, some of those scenarios where Tom and I talk about, like, oh, he's got really good numbers.
02:52Just look at the last month, month and a half.
02:54That's going to tell you the story.
02:55Nobody cares how he pitched in 32-degree weather back in late March or early April at this point.
02:59Use these hitters if they're hot, and we'll see if they are.
03:01And I just look at that Chicago lineup.
03:03Like, they should hit.
03:04Tanner Gordon, have you come out today, six innings pitched and one earned run against the Cubs?
03:08I'm betting against the Cubs to even make the playoffs at that point here.
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