00:00Now we line up with a chance for the Marlins to get out of Dodge here with a sweep against
00:04the New York Mets. Alcantara versus Senga, a favorite overnight, Tom. Minus 185. No longer.
00:09Minus 168. Minus 175. So money coming in, it looks like, on the Marlins. And a total
00:14from seven overnight, seven and a half overnight, up till eight. Senga's more of a name right now,
00:18Tom, because we're going to get into some of those statistics and tell you why.
00:21What's up with Senga? What's up with Senga is he has been terrible as of late. If we look
00:29at over the last 45 days, at least that I'm seeing, Donnie, he's the worst pitcher on the
00:33slate when it comes to XFIP at 5-2-1. His ERA is at 6-10. He's giving up hits. He's giving
00:39up home runs. He's not striking anyone out. 3-4-2-1-4 when it comes to earned runs over
00:45his last starts. And Sandy, on the other side, has been pretty solid. The money line for the
00:51Mets, I think, is a bit much at minus 172. They are the better team. We all agree with
00:55that. They've been playing terribly in these last two games. Senga has been pitching terribly.
00:59To see the Marlins get an early lead and then the Mets come back and win, I don't think
01:04that would shock anyone. Point being, Mets, as an in-game play, closer to even money, minus
01:09110, even if you get a Mets plus money, you're saying he gives up four earned runs over the
01:14first two innings. That's what I can realistically see happening. So I don't mind the over, as
01:18we've seen a ton of runs in the first two games, but the Mets, in-game, closer to even
01:22money, that's the play to go. Alcantara's been solid, but Senga's been terrible. I'm not
01:26going to minus 172 in the Mets. Yeah, let me play a little theater with you, Tom, this
01:31past week of Kodai Senga pitching against the Philadelphia Phillies. I had a team total
01:34in the Phillies, Tom, three and a half runs. I had three runs in the third inning and also
01:38the torture test, right, is the double down the line with two outs that Alec Bohm was
01:42like, I run slower than anybody in baseball. And you go, oh, I would have had a win right
01:46there. That's okay. I got the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth innings to
01:50come back. The Mets scored 13 unanswered runs. The Phillies end up with three runs. That's
01:54what happens sometimes. But to get back to Tom's point, Senga has been absolutely brutal.
01:58But also, you know, Sandy Alcantara has not had a good season. Look at his last three
02:02starts, though, Tom. Six innings pitch, one earned run. Seven innings pitch, one earned
02:06run. Seven innings pitch, two earned runs. But if you do look at that Mets lineup, just
02:11going on 30-day numbers with ISO and weighted on base percentage, it looks as good as any
02:15lineup in baseball. But Tom is also correct. Like you're saying, all right, well, you get
02:19a lead. That bullpen stinks for the Marlins. Did you see the game? Yes, the Marlins end up
02:23winning it. But that was back and forth, rock them, sock them, robot. So finally, the Marlins
02:27gave out. So it's one of those where you're right about this. Hey, what's going to happen
02:30later in the game when both of these pitches are out? Major advantage for the New York
02:34Mets in this point, but also a heavy price point. If you are looking first five innings,
02:37like Senga is a guy that you want to fade. Do I love the Marlins lineup? No. But if you're
02:41just picking out a pitcher versus a team that maybe others won't look at, oh, Senga will
02:44eventually get it together. He hasn't, Tom, at all.
02:46He hasn't. And like you said, the way to go about it would be in-game, but a Mets team
02:53total is certainly very in play. Once again, you get to that Marlins bullpen. And, you
02:58know, the Mets lineup, like you said, like they've been hitting home runs left, right
03:01and center over this past week, week and a half. So when you have Soto, who's been great
03:05as a late Lindor, I think what happened when maybe yesterday, Pete Alonso is always great.
03:09We're seeing Vientos and Beatty hit home runs. Everyone is chipping in, in-game number or
03:14max team total, not the money line.
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